Preseason Rankings
UNLV
Mountain West
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+5.5#91
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace72.9#54
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.2#84
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.3#106
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.2% 1.3% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 2.9% 3.0% 0.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.2% 16.8% 5.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 10.4% 10.8% 2.9%
Average Seed 9.4 9.4 11.2
.500 or above 61.1% 62.7% 30.8%
.500 or above in Conference 55.8% 56.9% 36.2%
Conference Champion 7.2% 7.5% 1.8%
Last Place in Conference 7.5% 7.0% 16.1%
First Four3.3% 3.4% 1.8%
First Round14.5% 15.1% 5.2%
Second Round6.5% 6.8% 1.5%
Sweet Sixteen2.2% 2.4% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.8% 0.8% 0.1%
Final Four0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern (Home) - 94.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 5
Quad 23 - 44 - 9
Quad 36 - 310 - 13
Quad 45 - 115 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2023 321   Southern W 84-67 95%    
  Nov 11, 2023 207   Stetson W 80-69 83%    
  Nov 17, 2023 191   @ Pepperdine W 82-79 62%    
  Nov 20, 2023 85   Florida St. L 76-77 48%    
  Nov 28, 2023 114   Akron W 74-69 67%    
  Dec 06, 2023 72   @ Dayton L 65-70 34%    
  Dec 09, 2023 116   Loyola Marymount W 77-72 68%    
  Dec 13, 2023 8   Creighton L 72-79 26%    
  Dec 16, 2023 26   St. Mary's L 63-70 27%    
  Dec 21, 2023 112   Hofstra W 77-72 66%    
  Jan 06, 2024 31   @ San Diego St. L 65-75 20%    
  Jan 09, 2024 55   New Mexico L 81-82 48%    
  Jan 13, 2024 83   Utah St. W 77-75 58%    
  Jan 16, 2024 54   @ Boise St. L 68-75 28%    
  Jan 19, 2024 71   @ Colorado St. L 72-77 34%    
  Jan 23, 2024 166   Air Force W 72-64 75%    
  Jan 27, 2024 147   @ San Jose St. W 69-68 54%    
  Jan 30, 2024 111   Fresno St. W 71-66 65%    
  Feb 03, 2024 163   Wyoming W 76-68 74%    
  Feb 10, 2024 55   @ New Mexico L 78-85 28%    
  Feb 14, 2024 111   @ Fresno St. L 68-69 46%    
  Feb 17, 2024 79   Nevada W 73-71 56%    
  Feb 21, 2024 166   @ Air Force W 69-67 57%    
  Feb 24, 2024 71   Colorado St. W 75-74 53%    
  Feb 27, 2024 163   @ Wyoming W 73-71 57%    
  Mar 02, 2024 147   San Jose St. W 72-65 72%    
  Mar 05, 2024 31   San Diego St. L 68-72 38%    
  Mar 09, 2024 79   @ Nevada L 70-74 37%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.0 1.8 1.2 0.5 0.1 7.2 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 2.5 3.3 2.0 0.6 0.1 9.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 3.6 3.9 1.6 0.3 0.0 10.6 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 4.3 4.1 1.4 0.1 0.0 11.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 4.1 4.6 1.3 0.1 11.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 4.0 4.5 1.4 0.1 11.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 3.6 4.4 1.4 0.1 10.3 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 3.4 3.9 1.5 0.1 9.7 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 3.0 3.2 1.2 0.1 8.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.3 2.2 0.8 0.1 6.7 10th
11th 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.5 1.0 0.3 0.0 4.5 11th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.7 4.2 6.2 8.3 9.8 11.1 11.2 11.6 9.9 8.2 6.2 4.3 2.5 1.3 0.5 0.1 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
16-2 92.9% 1.2    1.1 0.2 0.0
15-3 74.2% 1.8    1.3 0.5 0.0 0.0
14-4 46.5% 2.0    1.0 0.8 0.2 0.0
13-5 19.1% 1.2    0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0
12-6 4.2% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.2% 7.2 4.2 2.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 36.0% 64.0% 2.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.5% 98.9% 34.3% 64.6% 4.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.4%
16-2 1.3% 93.2% 27.6% 65.6% 5.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 90.6%
15-3 2.5% 87.4% 22.6% 64.8% 7.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 83.7%
14-4 4.3% 69.0% 17.6% 51.3% 8.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.3 62.3%
13-5 6.2% 48.1% 13.2% 34.9% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 3.2 40.2%
12-6 8.2% 29.5% 10.8% 18.7% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 5.8 20.9%
11-7 9.9% 14.5% 7.5% 7.0% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.4 7.6%
10-8 11.6% 8.2% 6.2% 2.0% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 10.6 2.2%
9-9 11.2% 5.0% 4.6% 0.4% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 10.7 0.4%
8-10 11.1% 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 10.7 0.0%
7-11 9.8% 2.2% 2.2% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9.5
6-12 8.3% 1.6% 1.6% 15.8 0.0 0.1 8.1
5-13 6.2% 1.4% 1.4% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 6.1
4-14 4.2% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 4.2
3-15 2.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 2.7
2-16 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 1.3
1-17 0.5% 0.5
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 16.2% 6.5% 9.7% 9.4 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.8 2.6 3.6 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.5 83.8 10.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.8 41.9 39.5 18.6