IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Ball St.
Mid-American
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	-4.6	#244
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	66.3	#225
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-1.0	#200

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-3.5	#288

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	3.1%	4.0%	1.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.8	13.9	14.6

.500 or above	36.6%	46.5%	22.1%
.500 or above in Conference	47.2%	53.9%	37.5%
Conference Champion	3.4%	4.4%	1.9%
Last Place in Conference	6.9%	4.8%	10.1%

First Four	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%
First Round	3.1%	4.0%	1.8%
Second Round	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Louisiana (Home) - 59.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 3
Quad 3	3 - 7	3 - 10
Quad 4	10 - 6	13 - 16

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 03, 2025	234	Louisiana	W	71-68	59%
Nov 11, 2025	26	@ Wisconsin	L	61-84	2%
Nov 15, 2025	177	Arkansas Little Rock	L	69-70	49%
Nov 22, 2025	170	@ Indiana St.	L	75-82	28%
Nov 28, 2025	211	Monmouth	L	70-72	44%
Nov 29, 2025	308	@ Lafayette	W	68-67	53%
Nov 30, 2025	347	Le Moyne	W	78-71	74%
Dec 03, 2025	241	@ Evansville	L	67-70	39%
Dec 09, 2025	151	South Dakota St.	L	73-75	43%
Dec 14, 2025	203	@ Campbell	L	66-71	33%
Dec 20, 2025	128	Miami (OH)	L	71-75	38%
Jan 03, 2026	334	@ Buffalo	W	76-73	60%
Jan 06, 2026	291	Eastern Michigan	W	75-69	69%
Jan 10, 2026	173	@ Massachusetts	L	70-77	29%
Jan 13, 2026	104	@ Akron	L	71-83	15%
Jan 16, 2026	145	Ohio	L	74-76	42%
Jan 20, 2026	299	@ Central Michigan	L	70-71	50%
Jan 24, 2026	316	Northern Illinois	W	76-69	72%
Jan 31, 2026	180	@ Toledo	L	73-79	31%
Feb 03, 2026	220	@ Bowling Green	L	70-74	37%
Feb 11, 2026	334	Buffalo	W	79-70	77%
Feb 14, 2026	126	Kent St.	L	67-71	38%
Feb 17, 2026	145	@ Ohio	L	71-79	25%
Feb 21, 2026	104	Akron	L	74-80	30%
Feb 24, 2026	173	Massachusetts	L	73-74	48%
Feb 28, 2026	316	@ Northern Illinois	W	73-72	54%
Mar 03, 2026	286	@ Western Michigan	L	72-73	48%
Mar 06, 2026	299	Central Michigan	W	73-67	69%
Projected Record						13 - 15	8 - 10

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Mid-American Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.1	0.4	1.0	1.0	0.7	0.2	0.0		3.4	1st
2nd											0.0	0.1	0.9	1.8	1.5	0.5	0.1				5.0	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.2	1.3	2.7	1.8	0.4	0.0					6.4	3rd
4th										0.2	1.4	3.4	2.3	0.4	0.0						7.6	4th
5th								0.0	0.1	1.6	4.2	3.0	0.7	0.0							9.6	5th
6th							0.0	0.1	1.3	4.5	3.5	0.7	0.0								10.2	6th
7th						0.0	0.0	1.3	4.4	4.2	0.9	0.0									10.9	7th
8th						0.0	0.9	4.1	4.4	1.3	0.1										10.9	8th
9th					0.0	0.8	3.4	4.1	1.4	0.1											9.9	9th
10th				0.0	0.6	2.6	3.9	1.4	0.2												8.7	10th
11th			0.0	0.5	2.3	3.2	1.5	0.2													7.7	11th
12th		0.0	0.6	1.7	2.5	1.0	0.1	0.0													6.0	12th
13th	0.2	0.6	1.3	1.1	0.6	0.1	0.0														3.7	13th

Total	0.2	0.6	1.9	3.4	5.9	7.8	9.9	11.3	11.8	11.9	10.3	8.5	6.7	4.5	3.0	1.5	0.8	0.2	0.0			Total

Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-1	100.0%	0.2		0.2	0.0
16-2	92.6%	0.7		0.6	0.2
15-3	67.1%	1.0		0.5	0.4	0.1	0.0
14-4	33.1%	1.0		0.3	0.5	0.2	0.0
13-5	9.3%	0.4		0.1	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0
12-6	1.0%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%	0.0				0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	3.4%	3.4		1.7	1.2	0.4	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.0%		44.4%	33.5%	10.9%	10.5										0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0					0.0		16.4%
17-1	0.2%		47.8%	47.8%		11.8											0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0				0.1
16-2	0.8%		20.1%	20.1%		12.4												0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.6
15-3	1.5%		17.8%	17.8%		12.9													0.1	0.2	0.0	0.0		1.2
14-4	3.0%		15.0%	15.0%		13.4													0.1	0.2	0.1	0.1		2.5
13-5	4.5%		11.0%	11.0%		13.9													0.0	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	4.0
12-6	6.7%		7.4%	7.4%		14.4													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.0	6.2
11-7	8.5%		4.6%	4.6%		14.9														0.1	0.1	0.2	0.1	8.1
10-8	10.3%		3.5%	3.5%		17.9														0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	9.9
9-9	11.9%		2.1%	2.1%		18.1														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	11.6
8-10	11.8%		0.6%	0.6%		18.3																0.0	0.1	11.7
7-11	11.3%		0.2%	0.2%		21.4																	0.0	11.3
6-12	9.9%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	9.9
5-13	7.8%																							7.8
4-14	5.9%																							5.9
3-15	3.4%																							3.4
2-16	1.9%																							1.9
1-17	0.6%																							0.6
0-18	0.2%																							0.2

Total	100%		3.1%	3.1%	0.0%	14.8										0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.7	0.8	0.8	0.5	96.9		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.0%