Colgate
Patriot League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.5#246
Expected Predictive Rating-8.4#298
Pace64.6#301
Improvement-1.4#268

Offense
Total Offense-2.4#237
First Shot+2.0#121
After Offensive Rebound-4.4#353
Layup/Dunks-3.1#278
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#49
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.8#11
Freethrows-6.5#363
Improvement+1.1#96

Defense
Total Defense-2.1#242
First Shot-4.8#324
After Offensive Rebounds+2.7#32
Layups/Dunks-0.6#191
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#301
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.7#326
Freethrows+2.1#63
Improvement-2.6#347
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.1% 17.1% 13.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.5 15.7
.500 or above 26.9% 43.9% 22.0%
.500 or above in Conference 72.3% 80.3% 70.0%
Conference Champion 18.8% 25.7% 16.9%
Last Place in Conference 4.7% 3.0% 5.2%
First Four7.7% 7.0% 7.9%
First Round10.9% 14.0% 10.0%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northeastern (Away) - 22.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 32 - 62 - 9
Quad 412 - 914 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 167   @ Drexel L 56-73 26%     0 - 1 -14.6 -13.2 -2.5
  Nov 12, 2024 96   @ Syracuse L 72-74 11%     0 - 2 +6.6 +1.8 +4.8
  Nov 18, 2024 72   @ North Carolina St. L 49-72 8%     0 - 3 -12.2 -19.4 +7.9
  Nov 22, 2024 241   @ Harvard L 67-78 38%     0 - 4 -12.3 -1.4 -11.4
  Nov 27, 2024 140   @ UNC Wilmington W 72-59 20%     1 - 4 +17.3 +12.4 +7.0
  Nov 29, 2024 163   Appalachian St. L 50-72 35%     1 - 5 -22.5 -12.1 -14.5
  Nov 30, 2024 139   Sam Houston St. L 78-82 29%     1 - 6 -2.7 +9.7 -12.7
  Dec 04, 2024 149   Cornell L 57-84 42%     1 - 7 -29.4 -15.8 -15.0
  Dec 08, 2024 152   @ Northeastern L 63-71 22%    
  Dec 11, 2024 9   @ Kentucky L 63-88 1%    
  Dec 15, 2024 183   Vermont L 62-63 48%    
  Dec 22, 2024 274   Iona W 70-65 67%    
  Jan 02, 2025 282   Army W 70-65 67%    
  Jan 05, 2025 260   @ Bucknell L 66-68 43%    
  Jan 08, 2025 251   Lehigh W 74-71 63%    
  Jan 11, 2025 268   Boston University W 68-64 66%    
  Jan 15, 2025 305   @ Navy L 70-71 50%    
  Jan 18, 2025 231   @ Lafayette L 63-67 37%    
  Jan 20, 2025 260   Bucknell W 69-65 64%    
  Jan 25, 2025 236   @ American L 64-67 37%    
  Jan 29, 2025 282   @ Army L 67-68 46%    
  Feb 01, 2025 231   Lafayette W 66-64 58%    
  Feb 03, 2025 251   @ Lehigh L 71-74 41%    
  Feb 08, 2025 335   Loyola Maryland W 71-62 78%    
  Feb 12, 2025 326   @ Holy Cross W 71-69 57%    
  Feb 15, 2025 268   @ Boston University L 65-67 45%    
  Feb 19, 2025 305   Navy W 73-67 70%    
  Feb 22, 2025 335   @ Loyola Maryland W 68-65 60%    
  Feb 26, 2025 326   Holy Cross W 74-66 75%    
  Mar 01, 2025 236   American W 67-64 59%    
Projected Record 13 - 17 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.4 5.0 5.2 3.5 1.6 0.6 0.1 18.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.8 6.2 3.7 1.3 0.2 0.0 15.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 4.0 6.3 2.8 0.4 0.0 13.9 3rd
4th 0.1 2.8 6.1 2.4 0.3 0.0 11.7 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 5.4 2.7 0.3 0.0 10.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 4.5 3.0 0.3 9.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 3.2 3.0 0.4 0.0 7.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.4 2.3 0.6 0.0 6.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 1.6 0.5 0.0 4.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.3 2.7 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.9 5.1 7.3 9.9 12.1 13.7 13.3 11.7 9.1 6.5 3.6 1.7 0.6 0.1 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6
16-2 99.3% 1.6    1.6 0.1
15-3 95.0% 3.5    3.0 0.4 0.0
14-4 79.4% 5.2    3.7 1.3 0.1
13-5 55.0% 5.0    2.5 2.0 0.5 0.0
12-6 20.7% 2.4    0.5 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0
11-7 3.8% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 18.8% 18.8 12.0 5.0 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 55.6% 55.6% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.6% 46.1% 46.1% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
16-2 1.7% 37.8% 37.8% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 1.0
15-3 3.6% 33.6% 33.6% 14.9 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.3 2.4
14-4 6.5% 28.0% 28.0% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.0 4.7
13-5 9.1% 24.3% 24.3% 15.7 0.0 0.6 1.6 6.9
12-6 11.7% 20.9% 20.9% 15.9 0.0 0.3 2.2 9.2
11-7 13.3% 14.2% 14.2% 16.0 0.1 1.8 11.4
10-8 13.7% 11.7% 11.7% 16.0 1.6 12.1
9-9 12.1% 8.4% 8.4% 16.0 1.0 11.1
8-10 9.9% 5.5% 5.5% 16.0 0.5 9.3
7-11 7.3% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.3 7.1
6-12 5.1% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.1 5.0
5-13 2.9% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 2.9
4-14 1.5% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 1.5
3-15 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.6
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 14.1% 14.1% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.7 10.5 85.9 0.0%