Colgate
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.4#181
Expected Predictive Rating-0.4#175
Pace67.4#240
Improvement-0.7#220

Offense
Total Offense+0.1#167
First Shot+2.5#111
After Offensive Rebound-2.3#324
Layup/Dunks+3.2#73
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#76
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#179
Freethrows-3.0#327
Improvement-0.6#223

Defense
Total Defense-1.5#225
First Shot-2.1#242
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#144
Layups/Dunks-2.7#278
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#45
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#203
Freethrows-1.0#249
Improvement-0.1#196
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 31.5% 39.3% 31.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 13.9 14.9
.500 or above 87.9% 99.1% 87.7%
.500 or above in Conference 93.9% 98.9% 93.8%
Conference Champion 46.5% 58.7% 46.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.0% 0.6%
First Four3.3% 1.8% 3.4%
First Round30.0% 38.4% 29.8%
Second Round0.8% 1.9% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 1.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida (Away) - 1.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 32 - 22 - 6
Quad 417 - 619 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 12 @Michigan St. L 69-80 3%     0 - 1 +10.0 +9.5 +0.4
  Fri, Nov 7 208 Northeastern L 65-68 68%     0 - 2 -9.2 -6.1 -3.3
  Tue, Nov 11 270 Drexel W 90-83 76%     1 - 2 -1.8 +14.2 -16.0
  Fri, Nov 14 14 @Illinois L 65-84 3%     1 - 3 +1.8 +2.7 -1.9
  Mon, Nov 17 164 @Siena W 72-69 35%     2 - 3 +5.7 +8.3 -2.3
  Thu, Nov 20 163 @Cornell L 94-95 2OT 34%     2 - 4 +1.9 -3.9 +6.0
  Fri, Nov 28 328 Albany W 69-67 80%     3 - 4 -8.1 -3.4 -4.5
  Sun, Nov 30 195 Fordham W 72-62 54%     4 - 4 +7.6 +5.2 +3.3
  Wed, Dec 10 111 @St. Bonaventure L 77-85 23%     4 - 5 -1.6 +7.8 -9.4
  Sun, Dec 21 13 @Florida L 64-86 2%    
  Sun, Dec 28 199 Harvard W 72-68 66%    
  Wed, Dec 31 319 @Lafayette W 74-69 68%    
  Sat, Jan 3 332 @Army W 76-70 72%    
  Wed, Jan 7 249 American W 78-71 73%    
  Sat, Jan 10 309 Lehigh W 77-67 82%    
  Wed, Jan 14 339 @Loyola Maryland W 78-71 72%    
  Sat, Jan 17 304 Bucknell W 76-66 81%    
  Wed, Jan 21 249 @American W 75-74 52%    
  Sat, Jan 24 289 Boston University W 76-67 78%    
  Wed, Jan 28 290 Holy Cross W 76-67 78%    
  Sat, Jan 31 309 @Lehigh W 74-70 64%    
  Wed, Feb 4 332 Army W 79-67 86%    
  Sat, Feb 7 304 @Bucknell W 73-69 62%    
  Wed, Feb 11 290 @Holy Cross W 73-70 60%    
  Sat, Feb 14 204 Navy W 73-68 66%    
  Mon, Feb 16 289 @Boston University W 73-70 59%    
  Sat, Feb 21 339 Loyola Maryland W 81-68 87%    
  Wed, Feb 25 319 Lafayette W 77-66 84%    
  Sat, Feb 28 204 @Navy L 70-71 45%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 2.6 7.7 11.4 11.7 7.9 3.9 0.9 46.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.2 7.3 7.0 3.4 0.9 0.1 22.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.3 5.2 3.5 0.9 0.1 12.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 3.6 2.2 0.4 0.0 7.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 2.4 1.5 0.2 4.7 5th
6th 0.3 1.4 1.1 0.2 2.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.2 1.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.1 5.2 8.0 11.1 13.8 15.6 14.8 12.6 8.0 3.9 0.9 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.9    0.9
17-1 100.0% 3.9    3.9 0.0
16-2 98.9% 7.9    7.6 0.3
15-3 92.9% 11.7    10.2 1.5 0.0
14-4 76.8% 11.4    7.8 3.2 0.3 0.0
13-5 49.5% 7.7    3.6 3.4 0.7 0.1
12-6 18.9% 2.6    0.6 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.0
11-7 2.9% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 46.5% 46.5 34.6 9.7 1.8 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.9% 66.7% 66.7% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3
17-1 3.9% 55.3% 55.3% 13.6 0.2 0.8 0.9 0.3 1.8
16-2 8.0% 51.5% 51.5% 14.1 0.1 0.7 2.1 1.2 0.1 3.9
15-3 12.6% 41.3% 41.3% 14.5 0.0 0.3 2.1 2.4 0.4 7.4
14-4 14.8% 37.8% 37.8% 14.9 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.3 1.0 9.2
13-5 15.6% 33.6% 33.6% 15.2 0.0 0.6 2.8 1.8 10.4
12-6 13.8% 25.5% 25.5% 15.5 0.2 1.5 1.8 10.3
11-7 11.1% 21.2% 21.2% 15.7 0.0 0.6 1.7 8.8
10-8 8.0% 18.7% 18.7% 15.9 0.2 1.3 6.5
9-9 5.2% 15.1% 15.1% 16.0 0.0 0.8 4.4
8-10 3.1% 9.9% 9.9% 16.0 0.3 2.8
7-11 1.8% 6.2% 6.2% 16.0 0.1 1.7
6-12 0.8% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.0 0.8
5-13 0.3% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.0 0.3
4-14 0.1% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 31.5% 31.5% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.2 7.2 12.4 9.3 68.5 0.0%