Bucknell
Patriot League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.0#248
Expected Predictive Rating-5.8#260
Pace69.2#153
Improvement+0.4#180

Offense
Total Offense-3.8#278
First Shot-2.5#247
After Offensive Rebound-1.3#265
Layup/Dunks+0.9#144
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#359
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#162
Freethrows+0.1#169
Improvement+5.0#9

Defense
Total Defense-1.1#209
First Shot+1.0#142
After Offensive Rebounds-2.2#330
Layups/Dunks+2.0#95
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#308
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#284
Freethrows+3.1#20
Improvement-4.6#350
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.4% 18.4% 15.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 38.1% 46.6% 19.0%
.500 or above in Conference 95.1% 98.6% 87.3%
Conference Champion 10.1% 13.5% 2.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.0% 0.8%
First Four12.3% 11.9% 13.3%
First Round11.4% 12.5% 8.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Boston University (Home) - 69.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 3
Quad 20 - 00 - 3
Quad 31 - 41 - 7
Quad 415 - 1016 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 233   @ Delaware W 85-73 37%     1 - 0 +10.4 +0.2 +8.9
  Nov 07, 2024 333   @ Southern Indiana W 75-69 OT 62%     2 - 0 -2.2 -5.2 +2.8
  Nov 09, 2024 18   @ Kentucky L 72-100 2%     2 - 1 -9.0 -4.1 -1.8
  Nov 13, 2024 264   Mount St. Mary's L 89-93 2OT 62%     2 - 2 -12.2 -1.9 -9.6
  Nov 16, 2024 223   Richmond W 80-76 2OT 53%     3 - 2 -1.8 -9.8 +7.3
  Nov 21, 2024 343   NJIT W 81-64 82%     4 - 2 +2.4 +3.0 -0.6
  Nov 23, 2024 306   Rider L 53-57 72%     4 - 3 -14.9 -17.7 +2.3
  Nov 27, 2024 16   @ Maryland L 67-91 2%     4 - 4 -4.8 -0.4 -2.9
  Nov 30, 2024 243   Siena L 58-71 49%     4 - 5 -17.8 -8.5 -11.0
  Dec 04, 2024 110   St. Bonaventure L 47-64 28%     4 - 6 -15.8 -20.6 +3.4
  Dec 08, 2024 195   @ Radford L 70-74 OT 29%     4 - 7 -3.4 -8.0 +4.8
  Dec 21, 2024 13   @ Gonzaga L 65-86 2%     4 - 8 -0.9 -6.4 +7.5
  Dec 28, 2024 111   @ Syracuse L 63-75 15%     4 - 9 -5.9 -9.2 +3.7
  Jan 02, 2025 272   @ Lehigh L 64-66 OT 45%     4 - 10 0 - 1 -5.7 -16.6 +11.1
  Jan 05, 2025 238   Colgate W 66-60 58%     5 - 10 1 - 1 -1.1 -5.0 +4.6
  Jan 08, 2025 288   Lafayette W 65-62 OT 67%     6 - 10 2 - 1 -6.5 -11.5 +4.9
  Jan 11, 2025 247   @ American L 58-68 40%     6 - 11 2 - 2 -12.5 -12.6 -0.6
  Jan 15, 2025 305   Holy Cross W 86-82 71%     7 - 11 3 - 2 -6.8 +11.0 -17.6
  Jan 18, 2025 286   Navy W 73-69 67%     8 - 11 4 - 2 -5.5 +0.7 -5.9
  Jan 20, 2025 238   @ Colgate L 80-87 39%     8 - 12 4 - 3 -9.1 +3.7 -12.7
  Jan 25, 2025 293   @ Boston University L 82-85 OT 50%     8 - 13 4 - 4 -7.8 +11.4 -19.3
  Jan 29, 2025 318   Loyola Maryland W 79-67 74%     9 - 13 5 - 4 +0.2 +4.5 -3.7
  Feb 01, 2025 286   @ Navy W 85-75 48%     10 - 13 6 - 4 +5.5 +8.7 -3.5
  Feb 05, 2025 247   American W 71-49 59%     11 - 13 7 - 4 +14.6 +2.7 +14.6
  Feb 08, 2025 291   @ Army L 110-116 2OT 49%     11 - 14 7 - 5 -10.7 +15.4 -25.1
  Feb 12, 2025 293   Boston University W 68-63 69%    
  Feb 15, 2025 288   @ Lafayette L 67-68 47%    
  Feb 17, 2025 272   Lehigh W 73-69 66%    
  Feb 23, 2025 291   Army W 75-70 69%    
  Feb 26, 2025 318   @ Loyola Maryland W 72-70 55%    
  Mar 01, 2025 305   @ Holy Cross W 71-70 51%    
Projected Record 15 - 16 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.2 5.3 3.6 10.1 1st
2nd 0.1 5.2 16.8 12.2 1.8 36.0 2nd
3rd 1.6 12.2 9.6 1.1 24.6 3rd
4th 0.2 7.5 9.0 1.6 0.0 18.2 4th
5th 0.9 5.0 0.6 6.6 5th
6th 0.0 2.0 0.8 2.8 6th
7th 0.2 1.1 0.0 1.3 7th
8th 0.3 0.1 0.4 8th
9th 0.2 0.2 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.6 4.3 14.9 27.0 29.1 18.6 5.4 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 67.0% 3.6    1.6 1.9 0.2
12-6 28.4% 5.3    1.0 2.7 1.4 0.2
11-7 4.0% 1.2    0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 10.1% 10.1 2.6 4.8 2.2 0.5 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 5.4% 26.5% 26.5% 15.3 0.1 0.9 0.5 4.0
12-6 18.6% 22.7% 22.7% 15.9 0.5 3.7 14.4
11-7 29.1% 18.1% 18.1% 16.0 0.2 5.1 23.9
10-8 27.0% 15.5% 15.5% 16.0 0.0 4.2 22.8
9-9 14.9% 12.7% 12.7% 16.0 1.9 13.0
8-10 4.3% 7.9% 7.9% 16.0 0.3 3.9
7-11 0.6% 10.3% 10.3% 16.0 0.1 0.5
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 17.4% 17.4% 0.0% 15.9 0.1 1.6 15.7 82.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.4% 100.0% 15.3 4.9 62.5 32.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.6%
Lose Out 0.4%