Northern Arizona
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -9.0 #311
Expected Predictive Rating -8.9 #304
Pace 63.1 #325
Improvement -3.0 #303

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #231 C D C D- C-
Defense #346 D D+ C C+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #152 1.11 #232 -0.3 #186
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #93 0.69 #284 +0.8 #130
Three Pointers 36% #286 1.11 #55 -0.8 #213
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #188 -0.4 #186
Freethrows 0.26 #313 67% #326 0.18 #337
Second Chance 24.1% #338 1.02 #180 0.25 #318
Turnovers 17.0% #178
Total Offense -2.2 #231

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #126 1.18 #214 -1.6 #233
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #305 0.77 #221 +1.5 #72
Three Pointers 43% #109 1.18 #355 -4.7 #342
1st FG Attempt 1.12 #322 -4.8 #322
Freethrows 0.28 #105 74% #256 0.21 #128
Second Chance 34.3% #316 1.06 #234 0.36 #302
Turnovers 16.6% #205
Total Defense -6.8 #346

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.9% #250 1.4% #299
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 0.1% #169 8.0% #322
Possession Length 19.0 #334 17.2 #180
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #314 0.16 #136
Improvement +3.1 #48 -6.1 #363

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.3% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.2% 0.8% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 87.1% 69.0% 92.4%
First Four0.4% 0.3% 0.4%
First Round0.2% 0.0% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Idaho St. (Away) - 22.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 31 - 121 - 15
Quad 46 - 67 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 163 Drake L 71 - 77 20% -0  0 - 1 -6 -1 C- F+ A+ -5 D- A+ C
 Tue, Nov 11 2 @Arizona L 49 - 84 0% -24  0 - 2 -8 -11 D+ D- F +4 C+ B- A
 Mon, Nov 24 264 Cal Poly W 93 - 87 49% +0  1 - 2 -3 +4 B C- C+ -7 F+ B C-
 Wed, Nov 26 237 Southeast Missouri St. W 79 - 72 43% +7  2 - 2 -0 +5 C- A+ B -5 B C- F
 Wed, Dec 3 177 South Dakota St. L 62 - 75 32% -6  2 - 3 -17 -12 F+ D- D- -5 B D C-
 Sat, Dec 6 140 @North Dakota St. L 68 - 69 11% -1  2 - 4 +3 -4 C- D C+ +7 B+ C+ A
 Tue, Dec 9 76 @Arizona St. L 48 - 73 4% -12  2 - 5 -14 -18 F F C +2 C+ B- B+
 Sat, Dec 13 198 @San Diego L 69 - 78 19% -6  2 - 6 -9 -0 C+ C- F -9 F+ F B+
 Thu, Dec 18 285 Southern Utah W 65 - 57 54% +0  3 - 6 -2 -7 F+ D+ C+ +6 C+ A B+
 Sun, Dec 21 247 @Incarnate Word L 66 - 90 25% -10  3 - 7 -26 -7 B F D- -20 F F F
 Thu, Jan 1 158 @Montana L 64 - 78 13% -4  3 - 8 0 - 1 -11 -2 C- C F -10 F B C
 Sat, Jan 3 166 @Montana St. L 68 - 77 14% -7  3 - 9 0 - 2 -6 +4 B- D+ A- -12 F+ D D-
 Thu, Jan 8 229 Weber St. L 65 - 78 42% -5  3 - 10 0 - 3 -20 -6 F+ C- A- -16 D+ F+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 235 Idaho St. L 79 - 81 43% -2  3 - 11 0 - 4 -9 +7 D A+ D+ -17 F F B
 Thu, Jan 15 261 @Sacramento St. L 69 - 83 27% -1  3 - 12 0 - 5 -17 -3 C F D- -15 D F F
 Sat, Jan 17 139 @Portland St. L 52 - 63 11% -5  3 - 13 0 - 6 -7 -7 C+ F D+ -1 B- D C-
 Mon, Jan 19 158 Montana L 72 - 98 28% -12  3 - 14 0 - 7 -29 +8 A+ F A- -41 F F F
 Sat, Jan 24 191 Northern Colorado W 81 - 77 35% +2  4 - 14 1 - 7 -1 +14 A+ B C -15 F F A+
 Thu, Jan 29 244 Eastern Washington W 92 - 86 45% +12  5 - 14 2 - 7 -2 +21 B+ A A+ -22 D F C
 Sat, Jan 31 184 Idaho L 62 - 79 33% -15  5 - 15 2 - 8 -22 -9 D+ C- D+ -13 F A- D+
 Thu, Feb 5 235 @Idaho St. L 68 - 76 23%
 Sat, Feb 7 229 @Weber St. L 73 - 81 23%
 Thu, Feb 12 139 Portland St. L 66 - 73 25%
 Sat, Feb 14 261 Sacramento St. L 78 - 79 48%
 Sat, Feb 21 191 @Northern Colorado L 71 - 81 17%
 Thu, Feb 26 184 @Idaho L 68 - 78 16%
 Sat, Feb 28 244 @Eastern Washington L 72 - 79 25%
 Mon, Mar 2 166 Montana St. L 68 - 74 30%
Totals 7 - 21 4 - 14 -9 -2 C D C -7 D D+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.1 0.1 0.1 4th
5th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 1.5 0.1 2.5 7th
8th 0.0 1.4 4.1 0.9 0.0 6.4 8th
9th 0.1 3.1 8.8 4.0 0.2 16.1 9th
10th 10.7 25.1 26.1 10.5 0.8 0.0 73.3 10th
Total 10.7 25.2 29.3 20.7 9.8 3.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0% 0.0
9-9 0.2% 0.2
8-10 0.7% 5.4% 5.4% 16.0 0.0 0.7
7-11 3.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 3.5
6-12 9.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 9.8
5-13 20.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 20.6
4-14 29.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 29.2
3-15 25.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 25.1
2-16 10.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 10.7
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 16.0 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 7.8%