IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Princeton
Ivy League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating	-3.1	#213
Expected Predictive Rating	-5.1	#245

Pace	63.4	#320
Improvement	+4.1	#31

	Overall	1st FGA	Second Chance	TOs	Free throws	Shot Selection
Offense	#231	C-	D+	C-	C	C
Defense	#203	C+	C	D	C	C-

Offense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	33%	#329	1.05	#302	-5.3	#341
2 Pt. Jumpers	17%	#243	0.78	#139	-1.0	#237
Three Pointers	50%	#22	1.00	#214	+4.2	#52
1st FG Attempt			0.98	#239	-2.1	#240
Freethrows	0.30	#186	74%	#119	0.22	#161
Second Chance	26.8%	#290	1.03	#173	0.28	#261
Turnovers					17.4%	#226
Total Offense					-2.2	#231

Defense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	42%	#82	1.20	#239	-3.2	#289
2 Pt. Jumpers	19%	#215	0.84	#305	-0.3	#211
Three Pointers	38%	#261	0.84	#12	+4.7	#18
1st FG Attempt			0.99	#137	+1.2	#139
Freethrows	0.30	#194	72%	#195	0.22	#191
Second Chance	28.5%	#93	1.13	#306	0.32	#196
Turnovers					14.4%	#316
Total Defense					-0.9	#203

Miscellaneous

	Offense		Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect	0.0%	#194	0.9%	#252
Shot Type Accuracy Effect	-4.1%	#244	-3.2%	#112
Possession Length	19.4	#349	16.7	#100
Fast Break Points Per Possession	0.05	#365	0.18	#238
Improvement	+4.4	#11	-0.3	#208

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	5.8%	8.7%	4.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.9	15.8	16.0

.500 or above	0.8%	2.2%	0.1%
.500 or above in Conference	70.6%	88.2%	61.6%
Conference Champion	4.5%	9.1%	2.1%
Last Place in Conference	1.8%	0.2%	2.6%

First Four	4.2%	5.3%	3.6%
First Round	4.4%	6.8%	3.2%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Penn (Away) - 33.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 3
Quad 2	1 - 1	1 - 4
Quad 3	2 - 10	3 - 13
Quad 4	7 - 5	11 - 18

Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Record		Total Rating	Offense				Defense
Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Overall	Conf	Total Rating	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs
Sat, Nov 8	61 @Akron	L	69 - 104	8%	-20	0 - 1		-23	-7	C	F	C-	-13	D	C	F
Tue, Nov 11	315 Bucknell	W	73 - 63	81%	+5	1 - 1		-2	-3	D	D+	C	+1	C-	A+	D+
Sat, Nov 15	14 @Kansas	L	57 - 76	2%	-6	1 - 2		+2	-6	D	C+	F+	+8	B+	A+	A+
Tue, Nov 18	231 @Iona	L	69 - 89	42%	-18	1 - 3		-21	-9	F	F	C-	-10	F+	D	D
Thu, Nov 20	256 Northeastern	W	70 - 57	70%	+10	2 - 3		+5	-7	F	A+	F	+12	A+	C+	B-
Mon, Nov 24	121 Bradley	L	64 - 88	29%	-8	2 - 4		-21	-8	C	B+	F	-13	F	A+	C-
Tue, Nov 25	143 Temple	L	75 - 79	34%	+1	2 - 5		-3	+5	B+	D	C+	-8	F	A+	B
Wed, Nov 26	211 Vermont	L	74 - 79	50%	-7	2 - 6		-8	+6	B	C	A	-14	D+	F	D
Sun, Nov 30	132 Saint Joseph's	L	58 - 60	32%	-1	2 - 7		-0	-4	C+	C	F	+3	A	F	A-
Wed, Dec 3	207 @Monmouth	L	58 - 63	38%	-3	2 - 8		-5	-10	C	F	F	+5	B-	A+	F+
Sat, Dec 6	279 @Loyola Chicago	L	68 - 73	52%	+1	2 - 9		-9	-1	D-	D	A-	-8	D+	F	F+
Wed, Dec 10	201 Merrimack	L	56 - 59	60%	-2	2 - 10		-9	-6	F	B-	B-	-3	B-	A+	F
Mon, Dec 22	143 @Temple	L	61 - 65	25%	-3	2 - 11		+0	-1	D	D	C	+0	C	B-	C
Tue, Dec 30	211 Vermont	W	75 - 69 OT	61%	+4	3 - 11		-0	+1	A-	F	D-	-1	A	F	C-
Mon, Jan 5	180 Penn	W	78 - 76	55%	-1	4 - 11	1 - 0	-2	+7	A	F+	C+	-9	A-	F	B
Sat, Jan 10	80 Yale	W	76 - 60	25%	+2	5 - 11	2 - 0	+20	+7	B+	C+	D-	+14	A+	C+	D+
Sat, Jan 17	165 @Harvard	L	80 - 87 OT	29%	+7	5 - 12	2 - 1	-4	+11	D	A+	A	-16	C-	C+	F
Mon, Jan 19	229 @Dartmouth	L	69 - 71	41%	+3	5 - 13	2 - 2	-3	+7	C	D	A+	-11	C+	F+	F
Sat, Jan 24	280 Brown	W	63 - 53	74%	+1	6 - 13	3 - 2	+0	-4	F	D	A+	+5	A+	F	F+
Fri, Jan 30	176 @Cornell	L	64 - 87	32%	-16	6 - 14	3 - 3	-21	-6	F	C	D+	-18	F	F	C+
Sat, Jan 31	183 @Columbia	W	80 - 68	33%	+1	7 - 14	4 - 3	+13	+17	A+	B	D+	-2	B	B+	F
Sat, Feb 7	180 @Penn	L	70 - 75	34%
Fri, Feb 13	176 Cornell	W	83 - 82	54%
Sat, Feb 14	183 Columbia	W	72 - 71	56%
Fri, Feb 20	280 @Brown	W	65 - 64	53%
Fri, Feb 27	165 Harvard	W	67 - 66	52%
Sat, Feb 28	229 Dartmouth	W	75 - 71	64%
Sat, Mar 7	80 @Yale	L	66 - 79	11%
Totals						10 - 18	7 - 7	-3	-2	C-	D+	C-	-1	C+	C	D

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Ivy League Finish

	0-14	1-13	2-12	3-11	4-10	5-9	6-8	7-7	8-6	9-5	10-4	11-3	12-2	13-1	14-0	Total
1st									0.1	1.9	2.1	0.4				4.5	1st
2nd								0.4	8.5	9.4	1.7					20.0	2nd
3rd							0.0	6.9	13.8	1.9	0.0					22.7	3rd
4th							2.0	14.7	2.6							19.3	4th
5th						0.3	8.7	5.8	0.0							14.7	5th
6th					0.1	3.4	7.7	0.3								11.4	6th
7th					1.2	4.7	1.2									7.1	7th
8th					0.2	0.1										0.3	8th

Total					1.5	8.5	19.5	28.1	25.1	13.2	3.9	0.4					Total

Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total	Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3	100.0%	0.4	0.3	0.1
10-4	54.6%	2.1	0.8	1.1	0.2
9-5	14.1%	1.9	0.1	0.8	0.7	0.2	0.0
8-6	0.5%	0.1			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
7-7	0.0%

Total	4.5%	4.5	1.2	2.0	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance	Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid	At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3	0.4%	19.2%	19.2%		14.1													0.0	0.0	0.0		0.3
10-4	3.9%	16.0%	16.0%		15.5															0.3	0.3	3.2
9-5	13.2%	10.5%	10.5%		15.9															0.2	1.2	11.8
8-6	25.1%	9.0%	9.0%		16.0															0.0	2.2	22.8
7-7	28.1%	4.9%	4.9%		16.0																1.4	26.7
6-8	19.5%	0.6%	0.6%		16.0																0.1	19.4
5-9	8.5%																					8.5
4-10	1.5%																					1.5
3-11
2-12
1-13
0-14

Total	100%	5.8%	5.8%	0.0%	15.9																	94.2	0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.2%
Lose Out	1.5%