UCLA
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.6#18
Expected Predictive Rating+9.2#74
Pace65.0#290
Improvement+1.4#87

Offense
Total Offense+4.7#64
First Shot+1.8#129
After Offensive Rebound+2.9#47
Layup/Dunks+0.4#171
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#29
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#278
Freethrows+1.1#117
Improvement+1.6#62

Defense
Total Defense+9.9#3
First Shot+2.3#109
After Offensive Rebounds+7.6#1
Layups/Dunks+2.3#99
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#238
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#237
Freethrows+1.8#75
Improvement-0.2#197
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.4% 0.8% 0.2%
#1 Seed 2.8% 4.9% 1.4%
Top 2 Seed 8.1% 13.3% 4.6%
Top 4 Seed 24.8% 36.2% 17.1%
Top 6 Seed 44.8% 58.7% 35.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 81.1% 89.9% 75.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 78.9% 88.3% 72.9%
Average Seed 6.1 5.4 6.6
.500 or above 95.5% 98.5% 93.5%
.500 or above in Conference 85.6% 93.5% 80.2%
Conference Champion 16.8% 27.7% 9.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.1% 0.4%
First Four3.6% 2.4% 4.5%
First Round79.4% 88.7% 73.1%
Second Round56.4% 66.9% 49.2%
Sweet Sixteen28.1% 36.6% 22.3%
Elite Eight13.1% 17.5% 10.2%
Final Four6.0% 8.2% 4.5%
Championship Game2.6% 3.6% 1.9%
National Champion1.1% 1.5% 0.8%

Next Game: Oregon (Away) - 40.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 63 - 6
Quad 1b4 - 38 - 9
Quad 25 - 212 - 11
Quad 33 - 015 - 11
Quad 47 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 257   Rider W 85-50 97%     1 - 0 +26.7 +15.4 +14.3
  Nov 08, 2024 65   New Mexico L 64-72 70%     1 - 1 +1.1 -9.5 +11.1
  Nov 11, 2024 268   Boston University W 71-40 98%     2 - 1 +22.0 -7.4 +28.4
  Nov 15, 2024 251   Lehigh W 85-45 97%     3 - 1 +32.1 +12.0 +23.0
  Nov 20, 2024 252   Idaho St. W 84-70 97%     4 - 1 +6.1 +17.9 -10.2
  Nov 22, 2024 307   Cal St. Fullerton W 80-47 98%     5 - 1 +22.5 +8.8 +15.6
  Nov 26, 2024 199   Southern Utah W 88-43 95%     6 - 1 +40.2 +10.3 +29.2
  Dec 03, 2024 75   Washington W 69-58 83%     7 - 1 1 - 0 +15.5 +5.8 +10.6
  Dec 08, 2024 22   @ Oregon L 66-69 40%    
  Dec 13, 2024 23   Arizona W 74-73 52%    
  Dec 17, 2024 357   Prairie View W 90-58 99.8%   
  Dec 21, 2024 17   North Carolina L 75-76 50%    
  Dec 28, 2024 1   Gonzaga L 69-76 27%    
  Jan 04, 2025 44   @ Nebraska W 69-68 52%    
  Jan 07, 2025 16   Michigan W 68-65 59%    
  Jan 10, 2025 19   @ Maryland L 67-70 39%    
  Jan 13, 2025 58   @ Rutgers W 71-69 58%    
  Jan 17, 2025 50   Iowa W 77-70 75%    
  Jan 21, 2025 35   Wisconsin W 71-66 68%    
  Jan 24, 2025 75   @ Washington W 70-66 65%    
  Jan 27, 2025 106   @ USC W 72-64 75%    
  Jan 30, 2025 22   Oregon W 69-66 61%    
  Feb 04, 2025 27   Michigan St. W 69-65 65%    
  Feb 08, 2025 31   Penn St. W 74-69 67%    
  Feb 11, 2025 14   @ Illinois L 69-73 37%    
  Feb 14, 2025 39   @ Indiana L 70-71 49%    
  Feb 18, 2025 112   Minnesota W 68-54 90%    
  Feb 23, 2025 29   Ohio St. W 71-66 66%    
  Feb 28, 2025 21   @ Purdue L 66-69 40%    
  Mar 03, 2025 66   @ Northwestern W 64-61 59%    
  Mar 08, 2025 106   USC W 75-61 89%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.1 3.7 5.1 3.9 2.0 0.7 0.1 16.8 1st
2nd 0.1 1.2 4.3 4.9 2.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 13.0 2nd
3rd 0.6 3.6 5.1 1.7 0.2 0.0 11.2 3rd
4th 0.1 2.0 4.8 2.1 0.3 9.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 4.1 3.0 0.4 0.0 8.2 5th
6th 0.1 2.3 4.0 0.8 0.0 7.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.8 2.0 0.1 0.0 6.8 7th
8th 0.1 2.0 3.2 0.4 5.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 3.0 1.2 0.1 4.9 9th
10th 0.1 1.8 2.3 0.2 4.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 2.2 0.7 0.0 3.6 11th
12th 0.2 1.3 1.3 0.1 2.9 12th
13th 0.1 0.6 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.1 1.7 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 1.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.2 2.2 4.0 6.4 9.0 11.5 13.2 13.6 13.1 10.6 7.4 4.4 2.0 0.7 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 99.5% 0.7    0.7 0.0
18-2 98.3% 2.0    1.8 0.1
17-3 89.5% 3.9    3.2 0.7 0.0 0.0
16-4 69.4% 5.1    2.9 1.9 0.4 0.0
15-5 35.2% 3.7    1.1 1.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-6 8.6% 1.1    0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 16.8% 16.8 9.9 4.6 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 41.8% 58.2% 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.7% 100.0% 39.3% 60.7% 1.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 2.0% 100.0% 31.4% 68.6% 1.9 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 4.4% 100.0% 27.4% 72.6% 2.5 0.8 1.5 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 7.4% 100.0% 23.7% 76.3% 3.3 0.5 1.4 2.4 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 10.6% 99.9% 17.5% 82.5% 4.3 0.2 0.9 2.2 2.8 2.5 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-6 13.1% 99.7% 14.3% 85.4% 5.4 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.3 3.3 2.9 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
13-7 13.6% 97.6% 9.0% 88.6% 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.9 2.2 3.0 3.2 2.2 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 97.4%
12-8 13.2% 93.6% 5.3% 88.4% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.9 3.1 2.1 1.1 0.3 0.8 93.3%
11-9 11.5% 81.8% 3.8% 78.0% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.4 2.2 2.1 1.9 0.8 0.0 2.1 81.1%
10-10 9.0% 60.3% 2.2% 58.2% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.4 0.1 3.6 59.5%
9-11 6.4% 31.0% 1.1% 29.9% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.9 0.1 4.4 30.3%
8-12 4.0% 8.5% 0.4% 8.1% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 3.6 8.1%
7-13 2.2% 1.9% 0.4% 1.5% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1 1.5%
6-14 1.2% 1.2
5-15 0.4% 0.4
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 81.1% 10.3% 70.8% 6.1 2.8 5.3 7.8 8.9 10.0 10.0 10.6 9.5 7.0 5.2 3.6 0.3 18.9 78.9%