Rider
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -13.3 #352
Expected Predictive Rating -23.2 #362
Pace 63.5 #317
Improvement +1.8 #97

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #348 F C D+ D+ F+
Defense #323 D- C F+ B- F

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #206 0.96 #355 -4.2 #318
2 Pt. Jumpers 34% #10 0.72 #227 +4.4 #22
Three Pointers 29% #360 0.76 #364 -10.1 #361
1st FG Attempt 0.82 #363 -9.9 #363
Freethrows 0.27 #287 70% #259 0.19 #297
Second Chance 32.4% #132 0.95 #307 0.31 #201
Turnovers 18.0% #283
Total Offense -8.0 #348

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% #6 1.16 #178 -5.1 #336
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #356 0.93 #357 +1.6 #72
Three Pointers 40% #226 1.16 #341 -2.1 #279
1st FG Attempt 1.13 #332 -5.5 #332
Freethrows 0.29 #153 66% #2 0.19 #71
Second Chance 32.2% #258 1.02 #135 0.33 #206
Turnovers 12.3% #355
Total Defense -5.3 #323

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.5% #348 3.1% #364
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -16.3% #363 7.3% #311
Possession Length 19.8 #356 16.8 #79
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #293 0.22 #325
Improvement +4.3 #11 -2.5 #317

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 73.1% 56.2% 79.8%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Manhattan (Away) - 28.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 30 - 60 - 11
Quad 44 - 134 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 21 @Virginia L 53 - 87 1% -17  0 - 1 -14 -6 D C- F -11 B- F F
 Wed, Nov 5 124 @Rutgers L 53 - 81 5% -14  0 - 2 -23 -14 F C F -10 D C- F
 Tue, Nov 18 31 @Texas L 65 - 99 1% -18  0 - 3 -17 -7 F+ C- C- -7 F A+ F
 Thu, Nov 20 4 @Houston L 45 - 91 0% -25  0 - 4 -22 -14 F C- F -9 F A+ D+
 Tue, Nov 25 364 Coppin St. L 65 - 68 82% +5  0 - 5 -26 -19 F F F -7 C- D C
 Thu, Dec 4 207 @Merrimack L 66 - 68 11% -1  0 - 6 0 - 1 -2 +2 C- A+ F -4 F B+ D-
 Sun, Dec 7 178 @Quinnipiac L 58 - 72 9% -15  0 - 7 0 - 2 -12 -12 F D D- -1 B- D F+
 Tue, Dec 9 321 Bucknell L 38 - 51 49% -6  0 - 8 -26 -33 F F F +5 D A+ B-
 Tue, Dec 16 296 @Delaware L 57 - 65 21% -6  0 - 9 -13 -10 F A- C- -4 C+ B- F+
 Mon, Dec 22 53 @Virginia Commonwealth L 79 - 100 2% -11  0 - 10 -8 +9 D A+ B -16 F F D+
 Mon, Dec 29 326 Manhattan L 71 - 74 50% +2  0 - 11 0 - 3 -16 -6 F C+ D -11 C F+ C
 Sun, Jan 4 172 Siena L 65 - 74 19% -7  0 - 12 0 - 4 -13 +2 C D- A+ -16 C- F B-
 Fri, Jan 9 271 @Fairfield L 62 - 68 17% -8  0 - 13 0 - 5 -9 -6 D+ F D+ -3 A+ F F
 Sun, Jan 11 161 Marist L 49 - 71 17% -12  0 - 14 0 - 6 -25 -17 F D- C+ -9 F A+ F+
 Wed, Jan 14 227 Iona W 72 - 68 27% +7  1 - 14 1 - 6 -3 +9 C A+ C- -11 D C+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 228 @St. Peter's L 58 - 69 13% -4  1 - 15 1 - 7 -12 -5 F B F -8 F+ D- D-
 Mon, Jan 19 278 Sacred Heart L 85 - 105 36% -12  1 - 16 1 - 8 -30 -3 D F A- -25 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 285 @Mount St. Mary's L 61 - 71 20% +4  1 - 17 1 - 9 -14 -3 F A C -13 F D B-
 Fri, Jan 30 326 @Manhattan L 69 - 75 28%
 Sun, Feb 1 228 St. Peter's L 62 - 68 27%
 Thu, Feb 5 161 @Marist L 55 - 71 7%
 Sat, Feb 7 207 Merrimack L 62 - 69 24%
 Fri, Feb 13 285 Mount St. Mary's L 66 - 69 39%
 Sun, Feb 15 278 @Sacred Heart L 68 - 78 18%
 Fri, Feb 20 342 Canisius W 65 - 64 55%
 Sun, Feb 22 349 Niagara W 65 - 63 58%
 Fri, Feb 27 227 @Iona L 64 - 76 13%
 Sun, Mar 1 172 @Siena L 59 - 74 8%
Totals 4 - 24 4 - 16 -13 -8 F C D+ -5 D- C F+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.1 9th
10th 0.5 1.9 1.4 0.2 3.9 10th
11th 0.1 1.5 5.6 4.5 0.6 0.0 12.4 11th
12th 0.3 4.4 11.8 9.1 1.7 0.1 27.4 12th
13th 4.4 14.9 21.3 11.8 2.4 0.1 54.9 13th
Total 4.4 15.2 25.8 25.1 17.5 8.4 2.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 0.0% 0.0
9-11 0.1% 0.1
8-12 0.6% 0.6
7-13 2.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.8
6-14 8.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 8.4
5-15 17.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 17.5
4-16 25.1% 25.1
3-17 25.8% 25.8
2-18 15.2% 15.2
1-19 4.4% 4.4
0-20
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 4.4%