Rider
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.8#344
Expected Predictive Rating-23.8#365
Pace64.5#308
Improvement+1.3#96

Offense
Total Offense-9.7#361
First Shot-9.5#364
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#185
Layup/Dunks-5.6#341
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.9#16
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.9#354
Freethrows-1.0#238
Improvement-1.1#278

Defense
Total Defense-2.2#240
First Shot-1.3#215
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#254
Layups/Dunks-5.3#343
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#130
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#221
Freethrows+4.1#11
Improvement+2.4#24
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.3% 1.0% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 8.3% 13.5% 7.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 26.7% 19.5% 28.1%
First Four0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Delaware (Away) - 17.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 61 - 11
Quad 46 - 116 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 25 @Virginia L 53-87 1%     0 - 1 -16.2 -8.6 -10.8
  Wed, Nov 5 125 @Rutgers L 53-81 6%     0 - 2 -22.5 -13.8 -10.1
  Tue, Nov 18 43 @Texas L 65-99 2%     0 - 3 -19.6 -8.0 -9.4
  Thu, Nov 20 8 @Houston L 45-91 0.4%    0 - 4 -23.2 -13.6 -11.4
  Tue, Nov 25 364 Coppin St. L 65-68 80%     0 - 5 -23.8 -17.3 -6.5
  Thu, Dec 4 266 @Merrimack L 66-68 19%     0 - 6 0 - 1 -4.7 +0.2 -5.1
  Sun, Dec 7 156 @Quinnipiac L 58-72 9%     0 - 7 0 - 2 -11.0 -11.1 -0.3
  Tue, Dec 9 301 Bucknell L 38-51 46%     0 - 8 -23.7 -33.0 +7.3
  Tue, Dec 16 245 @Delaware L 60-70 17%    
  Mon, Dec 22 49 @Virginia Commonwealth L 55-81 1%    
  Mon, Dec 29 314 Manhattan L 70-71 49%    
  Sun, Jan 4 155 Siena L 60-69 20%    
  Fri, Jan 9 303 @Fairfield L 64-71 26%    
  Sun, Jan 11 163 Marist L 56-65 22%    
  Wed, Jan 14 170 Iona L 66-74 23%    
  Sat, Jan 17 304 @St. Peter's L 59-66 27%    
  Mon, Jan 19 279 Sacred Heart L 71-73 42%    
  Sat, Jan 24 306 @Mount St. Mary's L 63-70 28%    
  Fri, Jan 30 314 @Manhattan L 68-74 28%    
  Sun, Feb 1 304 St. Peter's L 62-63 47%    
  Thu, Feb 5 163 @Marist L 53-68 10%    
  Sat, Feb 7 266 Merrimack L 62-65 39%    
  Fri, Feb 13 306 Mount St. Mary's L 66-67 48%    
  Sun, Feb 15 279 @Sacred Heart L 68-76 23%    
  Fri, Feb 20 354 Canisius W 64-60 65%    
  Sun, Feb 22 349 Niagara W 65-61 64%    
  Fri, Feb 27 170 @Iona L 63-77 11%    
  Sun, Mar 1 155 @Siena L 57-72 10%    
Projected Record 6 - 22 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 3rd
4th 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 2.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 1.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 3.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.2 2.6 1.5 0.2 0.0 5.7 7th
8th 0.1 1.2 3.6 2.1 0.4 0.0 7.4 8th
9th 0.1 1.3 4.5 3.4 0.7 0.0 10.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.6 5.4 5.1 1.3 0.1 13.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 2.9 7.0 6.3 1.8 0.1 0.0 18.5 11th
12th 0.1 1.2 4.4 7.1 5.6 1.6 0.2 20.3 12th
13th 0.5 2.4 4.6 5.1 3.3 0.9 0.1 0.0 17.0 13th
Total 0.5 2.6 5.8 10.1 13.5 15.3 14.8 12.8 9.7 6.7 4.4 2.1 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 80.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-5 10.0% 0.0    0.0
14-6 11.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0
15-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.2% 5.6% 5.6% 16.0 0.0 0.2
13-7 0.4% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.4
12-8 1.1% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.0 1.1
11-9 2.1% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 2.1
10-10 4.4% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 4.4
9-11 6.7% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 6.6
8-12 9.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 9.7
7-13 12.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.8
6-14 14.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.8
5-15 15.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 15.3
4-16 13.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 13.5
3-17 10.1% 10.1
2-18 5.8% 5.8
1-19 2.6% 2.6
0-20 0.5% 0.5
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 16.0 0.3 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%