Siena
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.1 #175
Expected Predictive Rating -1.2 #187
Pace 63.6 #317
Improvement +0.1 #179

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #159 C C C C- D-
Defense #219 C- C C B- C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #235 1.19 #131 -0.6 #202
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% #29 0.88 #41 +5.5 #8
Three Pointers 33% #326 0.92 #306 -5.5 #334
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #191 -0.6 #190
Freethrows 0.29 #243 73% #148 0.21 #211
Second Chance 30.8% #172 0.98 #253 0.30 #203
Turnovers 17.1% #182
Total Offense +0.1 #159

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #207 1.19 #225 -0.2 #185
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #105 0.81 #274 -1.3 #285
Three Pointers 40% #224 1.03 #211 +0.4 #166
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #217 -1.1 #217
Freethrows 0.28 #90 72% #173 0.20 #99
Second Chance 31.2% #208 0.97 #97 0.30 #153
Turnovers 16.9% #180
Total Defense -1.2 #219

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.7% #328 -0.6% #118
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 1.5% #146 2.7% #230
Possession Length 18.8 #325 17.4 #217
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 #348 0.13 #50
Improvement +4.3 #16 -4.2 #350

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.7% 21.8% 17.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.6 14.9
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.8%
Conference Champion 29.0% 34.8% 14.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
First Round20.5% 21.7% 17.6%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Iona (Home) - 71.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 32 - 42 - 6
Quad 420 - 522 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 347 Bryant W 82 - 66 89% +10  1 - 0 +1 +7 D A+ B -5 F F A+
 Fri, Nov 7 281 @Brown W 62 - 46 60% +12  2 - 0 +12 -5 F+ C- D- +18 A+ A+ B+
 Wed, Nov 12 142 @St. Bonaventure L 66 - 75 30% -3  2 - 1 -5 -1 F A+ F+ -5 C+ F B-
 Mon, Nov 17 221 Colgate L 69 - 72 69% -0  2 - 2 -9 -2 D B C -8 D+ C C-
 Fri, Nov 21 317 Albany W 73 - 63 86% +8  3 - 2 -3 +5 C+ C D- -6 F A+ D+
 Mon, Nov 24 326 @Holy Cross W 73 - 69 72% +1  4 - 2 -3 +2 B F C -5 F A C+
 Fri, Nov 28 266 Longwood W 70 - 63 68% +3  5 - 2 +1 -2 B- D- C- +4 B D- A+
 Sat, Nov 29 245 @American W 59 - 55 52% +1  6 - 2 +2 -13 F+ F F +15 A+ C+ A+
 Sun, Nov 30 345 Maine W 64 - 60 84% +8  7 - 2 -8 +0 C F B- -7 F D D-
 Fri, Dec 5 348 Niagara W 83 - 54 90% +22  8 - 2 1 - 0 +14 +9 B C B- +7 A B- F
 Sun, Dec 7 343 Canisius W 74 - 52 89% +14  9 - 2 2 - 0 +7 +2 C- F A+ +7 A C+ B-
 Wed, Dec 17 212 @Vermont L 69 - 83 46% -12  9 - 3 -14 -4 F+ D- C -10 D D- F+
 Mon, Dec 22 30 @Indiana L 60 - 81 5% -18  9 - 4 -3 -5 F C- A +1 B- A+ A-
 Fri, Jan 2 231 @Iona L 72 - 75 50% -4  9 - 5 2 - 1 -4 -1 D D- B+ -3 F A+ A-
 Sun, Jan 4 351 @Rider W 74 - 65 79% +7  10 - 5 3 - 1 -1 +9 D A+ F -8 D- B+ F
 Fri, Jan 9 200 Merrimack L 59 - 63 67% -9  10 - 6 3 - 2 -10 +2 C- C C+ -13 F+ C- D-
 Sun, Jan 11 290 @Mount St. Mary's W 67 - 50 62% +5  11 - 6 4 - 2 +13 +4 C D C+ +11 A+ C- C+
 Wed, Jan 14 274 Sacred Heart L 80 - 86 78% -4  11 - 7 4 - 3 -15 +3 F+ C A+ -19 B+ F F
 Sat, Jan 17 327 @Manhattan W 74 - 59 73% +12  12 - 7 5 - 3 +8 +4 A+ F D- +6 B B D-
 Mon, Jan 19 272 Fairfield W 85 - 77 78% +8  13 - 7 6 - 3 -1 +14 A+ D F -14 D- F D+
 Thu, Jan 22 161 Marist W 69 - 50 58% +4  14 - 7 7 - 3 +16 +11 C- A+ A+ +8 B A+ F
 Fri, Jan 30 348 @Niagara W 82 - 79 78% +3  15 - 7 8 - 3 -6 +15 A+ C C -20 F F D
 Sun, Feb 1 343 @Canisius W 78 - 63 77% +8  16 - 7 9 - 3 +6 +16 A B+ C+ -7 F+ C- A-
 Thu, Feb 5 231 Iona W 75 - 69 72%
 Sat, Feb 7 233 @St. Peter's L 67 - 68 50%
 Fri, Feb 13 186 Quinnipiac W 76 - 72 63%
 Sun, Feb 15 161 @Marist L 63 - 67 36%
 Fri, Feb 20 200 @Merrimack L 66 - 68 44%
 Sun, Feb 22 233 St. Peter's W 71 - 65 71%
 Fri, Feb 27 272 @Fairfield W 73 - 71 58%
 Sun, Mar 1 351 Rider W 77 - 62 91%
Totals 21 - 10 14 - 6 -1 +0 C C C -1 C- C C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 4.1 13.2 9.6 2.0 29.0 1st
2nd 0.0 2.5 14.9 7.8 0.8 26.1 2nd
3rd 0.6 9.3 7.5 0.2 17.6 3rd
4th 0.1 3.9 8.8 0.7 13.5 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 6.2 2.1 0.0 10.1 5th
6th 0.4 1.7 0.9 0.0 3.0 6th
7th 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.1 0.9 3.8 11.6 22.8 27.2 21.3 10.4 2.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 2.0    1.9 0.1
16-4 92.3% 9.6    7.1 2.5 0.0
15-5 62.2% 13.2    4.4 6.7 2.1 0.1
14-6 15.0% 4.1    0.2 1.3 1.7 0.8 0.1
13-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 29.0% 29.0 13.6 10.5 3.8 1.0 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 2.0% 29.4% 29.4% 13.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.4
16-4 10.4% 30.4% 30.4% 14.1 0.5 1.8 0.9 0.0 7.2
15-5 21.3% 24.3% 24.3% 14.5 0.2 2.1 2.7 0.2 16.1
14-6 27.2% 23.0% 23.0% 14.8 0.1 1.6 4.0 0.5 20.9
13-7 22.8% 15.4% 15.4% 15.1 0.0 0.5 2.3 0.7 19.3
12-8 11.6% 13.3% 13.3% 15.3 0.1 0.9 0.6 10.1
11-9 3.8% 9.6% 9.6% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 3.4
10-10 0.9% 7.0% 7.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.8
9-11 0.1% 0.1
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 20.7% 20.7% 0.0% 14.7 79.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 13.3 10.2 50.8 37.3 1.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6%