South Florida
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.7#83
Expected Predictive Rating+6.1#93
Pace77.4#25
Improvement-0.4#212

Offense
Total Offense+4.3#76
First Shot-2.0#224
After Offensive Rebound+6.2#2
Layup/Dunks+2.2#105
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.7#362
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#260
Freethrows+2.9#33
Improvement-1.1#268

Defense
Total Defense+2.4#98
First Shot+3.5#74
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#268
Layups/Dunks+3.9#54
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#171
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#148
Freethrows-1.7#296
Improvement+0.6#137
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.4% 19.8% 13.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.6% 0.6% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.6 11.6 12.1
.500 or above 92.8% 93.5% 81.3%
.500 or above in Conference 89.4% 89.7% 84.1%
Conference Champion 22.3% 22.8% 14.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.3% 0.7%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
First Round19.2% 19.6% 13.1%
Second Round4.2% 4.3% 2.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 0.9% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Maryland Baltimore Co. (Home) - 94.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 24 - 54 - 9
Quad 38 - 312 - 12
Quad 48 - 120 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 334 Florida A&M W 102-67 96%     1 - 0 +21.3 +10.3 +6.5
  Sat, Nov 8 79 George Washington L 95-99 48%     1 - 1 +3.3 +6.0 -2.0
  Wed, Nov 12 364 Coppin St. W 100-50 99%     2 - 1 +28.4 +19.7 +9.8
  Sun, Nov 16 155 @Kennesaw St. W 108-89 63%     3 - 1 +22.3 +23.1 -3.0
  Wed, Nov 19 51 @Oklahoma St. L 95-103 26%     3 - 2 +5.4 +13.8 -7.2
  Wed, Nov 26 50 Virginia Commonwealth L 66-78 34%     3 - 3 -1.1 -2.6 +1.9
  Thu, Nov 27 147 Western Kentucky W 97-91 OT 71%     4 - 3 +6.9 +2.3 +3.2
  Fri, Nov 28 70 Colorado St. L 68-83 45%     4 - 4 -7.0 -3.9 -3.4
  Thu, Dec 4 44 Utah St. W 74-61 44%     5 - 4 +21.3 +3.8 +17.4
  Wed, Dec 10 185 College of Charleston W 81-75 85%     6 - 4 +1.3 +6.6 -5.1
  Wed, Dec 17 16 @Alabama L 93-104 10%     6 - 5 +9.4 +15.7 -5.1
  Sun, Dec 21 285 Maryland Baltimore Co. W 86-70 94%    
  Tue, Jan 6 112 UAB W 85-79 72%    
  Wed, Jan 7 146 @North Texas W 72-69 60%    
  Sat, Jan 10 81 @Tulsa L 80-83 37%    
  Wed, Jan 14 255 East Carolina W 85-70 92%    
  Sun, Jan 18 100 Wichita St. W 79-74 67%    
  Thu, Jan 22 112 @UAB W 82-81 51%    
  Sun, Jan 25 118 Florida Atlantic W 85-79 72%    
  Wed, Jan 28 199 @Tulane W 82-76 71%    
  Sat, Jan 31 156 @Temple W 83-80 62%    
  Wed, Feb 4 295 Texas San Antonio W 87-70 94%    
  Sun, Feb 8 81 Tulsa W 83-80 59%    
  Wed, Feb 11 100 @Wichita St. L 76-77 45%    
  Sun, Feb 15 118 @Florida Atlantic W 82-81 52%    
  Thu, Feb 19 76 Memphis W 80-78 58%    
  Wed, Feb 25 206 @Rice W 79-72 73%    
  Sun, Mar 1 199 Tulane W 85-73 86%    
  Thu, Mar 5 76 @Memphis L 77-81 36%    
  Sun, Mar 8 198 Charlotte W 81-69 86%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 3.1 6.7 6.3 3.9 1.5 0.3 22.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 4.0 7.7 4.7 1.2 0.1 18.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 3.3 7.6 3.7 0.6 0.0 15.5 3rd
4th 0.1 2.1 6.2 3.1 0.4 0.0 11.9 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 4.6 3.3 0.4 0.0 9.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.1 3.4 0.6 0.0 7.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.9 3.0 0.8 0.0 5.9 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 2.1 0.9 0.1 3.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.9 0.1 2.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.1 1.5 10th
11th 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.9 5.3 8.3 11.3 13.9 15.6 14.9 12.1 7.5 4.0 1.5 0.3 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 100.0% 1.5    1.5 0.0
16-2 97.7% 3.9    3.5 0.3 0.0
15-3 83.7% 6.3    4.5 1.6 0.1
14-4 55.7% 6.7    3.1 2.9 0.7 0.1
13-5 20.9% 3.1    0.7 1.3 0.9 0.2 0.0
12-6 3.2% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 22.3% 22.3 13.6 6.2 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 77.1% 54.2% 22.9% 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 50.0%
17-1 1.5% 57.9% 47.5% 10.4% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.6 19.7%
16-2 4.0% 43.2% 39.5% 3.6% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.3 0.2 2.2 6.0%
15-3 7.5% 35.4% 34.7% 0.6% 11.3 0.1 1.6 0.9 0.0 4.9 0.9%
14-4 12.1% 28.5% 28.2% 0.3% 11.5 0.0 1.7 1.7 0.1 8.6 0.4%
13-5 14.9% 24.6% 24.5% 0.1% 11.8 0.0 1.1 2.4 0.2 0.0 11.2 0.1%
12-6 15.6% 18.2% 18.2% 12.0 0.0 0.5 2.0 0.3 0.0 12.8
11-7 13.9% 13.6% 13.6% 12.2 0.2 1.3 0.4 0.0 12.0
10-8 11.3% 9.0% 9.0% 12.2 0.1 0.7 0.3 0.0 10.3
9-9 8.3% 8.0% 8.0% 12.6 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 7.7
8-10 5.3% 5.1% 5.1% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.1
7-11 2.9% 2.8% 2.8% 14.5 0.0 0.0 2.9
6-12 1.5% 3.0% 3.0% 15.1 0.0 0.0 1.5
5-13 0.6% 0.6
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 19.4% 18.9% 0.5% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 6.8 9.6 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 80.6 0.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 6.1 2.3 4.7 11.6 20.9 23.3 16.3 4.7 14.0 2.3