Preseason Rankings
South Florida
American Athletic
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+4.4#106
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.2#118
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.4#105
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.0#114
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.8% 11.1% 4.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.5% 1.6% 0.4%
Average Seed 11.0 10.9 12.2
.500 or above 65.3% 66.8% 35.2%
.500 or above in Conference 66.9% 68.1% 44.3%
Conference Champion 11.0% 11.3% 3.9%
Last Place in Conference 3.8% 3.5% 8.9%
First Four0.7% 0.7% 0.5%
First Round10.4% 10.7% 4.7%
Second Round2.9% 3.0% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.6% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida A&M (Home) - 95.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 21 - 3
Quad 23 - 53 - 8
Quad 37 - 410 - 12
Quad 47 - 117 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 332   Florida A&M W 81-63 95%    
  Nov 08, 2025 85   George Washington L 72-74 43%    
  Nov 12, 2025 362   Coppin St. W 82-57 99%    
  Nov 16, 2025 142   @ Kennesaw St. W 77-76 52%    
  Nov 19, 2025 73   @ Oklahoma St. L 74-80 28%    
  Nov 26, 2025 58   Virginia Commonwealth L 67-72 33%    
  Dec 04, 2025 54   Utah St. L 73-76 40%    
  Dec 10, 2025 123   College of Charleston W 79-74 67%    
  Dec 17, 2025 18   @ Alabama L 76-91 10%    
  Dec 21, 2025 304   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 86-71 91%    
  Jan 06, 2026 102   UAB W 77-74 59%    
  Jan 07, 2026 89   @ North Texas L 60-64 35%    
  Jan 10, 2026 149   @ Tulsa W 72-71 53%    
  Jan 14, 2026 158   East Carolina W 74-66 74%    
  Jan 18, 2026 122   Wichita St. W 76-71 66%    
  Jan 22, 2026 102   @ UAB L 74-77 39%    
  Jan 25, 2026 139   Florida Atlantic W 78-72 69%    
  Jan 28, 2026 116   @ Tulane L 72-74 44%    
  Jan 31, 2026 132   @ Temple L 75-76 49%    
  Feb 04, 2026 167   Texas San Antonio W 80-72 75%    
  Feb 08, 2026 149   Tulsa W 75-68 72%    
  Feb 11, 2026 122   @ Wichita St. L 73-74 47%    
  Feb 15, 2026 139   @ Florida Atlantic W 76-75 50%    
  Feb 19, 2026 53   Memphis L 74-77 40%    
  Feb 25, 2026 165   @ Rice W 72-70 57%    
  Mar 01, 2026 116   Tulane W 75-71 63%    
  Mar 05, 2026 53   @ Memphis L 71-80 23%    
  Mar 08, 2026 185   Charlotte W 74-65 78%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.4 2.6 3.1 2.2 1.0 0.3 11.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.0 4.2 3.1 1.2 0.1 12.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.5 4.8 2.4 0.5 0.0 12.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.3 4.7 2.2 0.3 0.0 10.9 4th
5th 0.2 2.3 4.6 2.2 0.3 0.0 9.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.5 4.5 2.4 0.3 8.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 3.5 3.0 0.4 0.0 7.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.7 3.3 0.6 0.0 7.0 8th
9th 0.2 1.7 3.1 0.9 0.0 5.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.2 2.6 1.2 0.1 5.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.7 1.3 0.3 0.0 4.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 3.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.0 13th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.7 4.1 6.1 8.3 9.5 11.0 11.3 11.5 10.6 8.4 6.2 4.3 2.4 1.0 0.3 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 100.0% 1.0    0.9 0.0
16-2 93.8% 2.2    1.8 0.4 0.0
15-3 71.5% 3.1    1.9 1.1 0.1
14-4 42.1% 2.6    1.2 1.1 0.3 0.0
13-5 16.7% 1.4    0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1
12-6 3.4% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.0% 11.0 6.5 3.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 81.2% 48.7% 32.5% 5.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 63.3%
17-1 1.0% 66.1% 41.4% 24.7% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 42.2%
16-2 2.4% 55.3% 38.2% 17.1% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.0 1.1 27.7%
15-3 4.3% 38.1% 29.2% 8.9% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.1 2.7 12.5%
14-4 6.2% 26.4% 23.5% 3.0% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.3 0.0 4.6 3.9%
13-5 8.4% 20.6% 19.7% 0.9% 11.4 0.0 0.1 1.0 0.5 0.1 6.6 1.1%
12-6 10.6% 14.0% 13.9% 0.1% 11.7 0.0 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 9.1 0.1%
11-7 11.5% 8.4% 8.4% 0.0% 12.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 10.5 0.0%
10-8 11.3% 5.1% 5.1% 0.0% 12.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 10.7 0.0%
9-9 11.0% 2.8% 2.8% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.7
8-10 9.5% 1.2% 1.2% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.4
7-11 8.3% 0.9% 0.9% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.2
6-12 6.1% 0.3% 0.3% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.1
5-13 4.1% 0.3% 0.3% 15.7 0.0 0.0 4.1
4-14 2.7% 2.7
3-15 1.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.4
2-16 0.7% 0.7
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 10.8% 9.4% 1.4% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.2 4.5 2.7 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.1 89.2 1.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 3.0 16.4 50.0 33.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 4.0 100.0