St. Francis (PA)
Northeast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-15.7#363
Expected Predictive Rating-16.3#352
Pace72.9#87
Improvement-1.2#263

Offense
Total Offense-9.9#360
First Shot-7.4#353
After Offensive Rebound-2.6#335
Layup/Dunks+0.0#184
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#113
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#302
Freethrows-4.4#357
Improvement-0.4#215

Defense
Total Defense-5.7#343
First Shot-7.2#358
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#77
Layups/Dunks-4.9#331
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#41
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.1#340
Freethrows+0.8#123
Improvement-0.8#245
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.9% 1.6% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 9.9% 15.2% 9.0%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 49.0% 40.1% 50.6%
First Four0.9% 1.6% 0.8%
First Round0.3% 0.5% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Robert Morris (Home) - 14.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 30 - 40 - 9
Quad 45 - 145 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 47 @Oklahoma L 66-102 1%     0 - 1 -21.9 -6.5 -13.5
  Thu, Nov 6 54 @TCU L 63-104 1%     0 - 2 -28.0 -7.1 -16.9
  Tue, Nov 11 302 Mount St. Mary's L 66-74 31%     0 - 3 -18.4 -10.3 -8.2
  Tue, Nov 18 308 @Lehigh L 62-79 17%     0 - 4 -22.5 -15.8 -6.0
  Mon, Nov 24 87 Belmont L 57-94 3%     0 - 5 -30.8 -15.4 -14.5
  Wed, Nov 26 143 Troy L 64-74 7%     0 - 6 -8.9 -11.3 +2.9
  Mon, Dec 1 101 @Xavier L 74-96 2%     0 - 7 -14.1 -1.7 -10.3
  Sun, Dec 7 253 @Radford L 56-89 11%     0 - 8 -35.3 -18.2 -17.4
  Sun, Dec 14 156 @Temple L 67-95 5%     0 - 9 -24.8 -7.8 -17.2
  Wed, Dec 17 13 @Florida L 61-102 0.3%    0 - 10 -20.2 -2.6 -16.3
  Sat, Dec 20 183 Robert Morris L 66-77 15%    
  Fri, Jan 2 315 Le Moyne L 75-79 37%    
  Sun, Jan 4 359 Fairleigh Dickinson W 77-75 58%    
  Thu, Jan 8 292 @Wagner L 66-78 14%    
  Sat, Jan 17 240 Central Connecticut St. L 65-73 23%    
  Mon, Jan 19 339 Stonehill L 68-70 44%    
  Fri, Jan 23 341 Chicago St. L 74-76 45%    
  Sun, Jan 25 336 @New Haven L 64-72 24%    
  Thu, Jan 29 341 @Chicago St. L 71-79 25%    
  Sat, Jan 31 336 New Haven L 67-69 43%    
  Thu, Feb 5 328 @Mercyhurst L 64-73 21%    
  Thu, Feb 12 359 @Fairleigh Dickinson L 74-78 36%    
  Thu, Feb 19 201 LIU Brooklyn L 71-81 18%    
  Sat, Feb 21 292 Wagner L 69-75 31%    
  Thu, Feb 26 339 @Stonehill L 65-73 24%    
  Sat, Feb 28 240 @Central Connecticut St. L 62-76 11%    
Projected Record 5 - 21 5 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.3 3rd
4th 0.1 0.7 1.4 0.4 0.0 2.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 2.3 0.9 0.1 4.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 3.5 1.9 0.1 6.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 4.5 3.5 0.4 9.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.3 6.5 5.4 0.9 0.0 15.3 8th
9th 0.1 1.0 5.0 9.3 7.2 1.5 0.1 24.1 9th
10th 1.5 5.8 10.0 10.8 6.1 1.4 0.0 35.6 10th
Total 1.5 5.8 11.0 16.0 17.9 16.5 12.6 8.8 5.3 2.9 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
12-4 44.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-5 11.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
12-4 0.1% 11.6% 11.6% 16.0 0.0 0.1
11-5 0.5% 6.3% 6.3% 16.0 0.0 0.4
10-6 1.2% 6.1% 6.1% 16.0 0.1 1.1
9-7 2.9% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.1 2.8
8-8 5.3% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.1 5.1
7-9 8.8% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 8.7
6-10 12.6% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 12.5
5-11 16.5% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 16.4
4-12 17.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 17.8
3-13 16.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 15.9
2-14 11.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 11.0
1-15 5.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.8
0-16 1.5% 1.5
Total 100% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 16.0 0.9 99.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.2%