St. Mary's
West Coast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.3#42
Expected Predictive Rating+13.6#41
Pace61.2#350
Improvement+1.4#94

Offense
Total Offense+5.3#54
First Shot+1.1#144
After Offensive Rebound+4.2#16
Layup/Dunks+6.5#20
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#220
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.6#334
Freethrows+0.9#123
Improvement-2.8#352

Defense
Total Defense+6.0#34
First Shot+6.1#24
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#199
Layups/Dunks+2.2#103
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#311
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.6#25
Freethrows+0.2#174
Improvement+4.1#2
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 0.6% 1.0% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 2.5% 4.1% 1.1%
Top 6 Seed 6.4% 9.9% 3.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 41.9% 52.4% 32.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 34.6% 45.4% 25.5%
Average Seed 9.0 8.7 9.5
.500 or above 99.8% 99.9% 99.6%
.500 or above in Conference 97.2% 98.0% 96.5%
Conference Champion 9.5% 11.4% 7.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four10.9% 12.0% 10.0%
First Round36.8% 47.0% 28.0%
Second Round19.6% 25.9% 14.1%
Sweet Sixteen6.8% 9.1% 4.7%
Elite Eight2.8% 3.8% 1.9%
Final Four1.1% 1.7% 0.7%
Championship Game0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

Next Game: Utah (Away) - 46.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b2 - 22 - 5
Quad 25 - 37 - 7
Quad 36 - 113 - 8
Quad 410 - 023 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 147   Towson W 76-69 89%     1 - 0 +4.8 +9.6 -4.4
  Nov 07, 2024 200   Chattanooga W 86-74 92%     2 - 0 +7.2 +17.0 -8.7
  Nov 12, 2024 131   Akron W 87-68 88%     3 - 0 +17.5 +10.5 +6.8
  Nov 17, 2024 44   Nebraska W 77-74 51%     4 - 0 +14.0 +16.7 -2.4
  Nov 23, 2024 228   Cal Poly W 80-66 94%     5 - 0 +7.3 +2.5 +4.5
  Nov 28, 2024 106   USC W 71-36 75%     6 - 0 +39.1 +9.6 +34.2
  Nov 29, 2024 51   Arizona St. L 64-68 56%     6 - 1 +5.8 -1.2 +6.9
  Dec 03, 2024 249   Texas San Antonio W 82-74 OT 95%     7 - 1 +0.3 -1.5 +1.3
  Dec 07, 2024 60   @ Utah L 69-70 47%    
  Dec 15, 2024 53   Boise St. W 69-67 56%    
  Dec 19, 2024 222   Merrimack W 71-53 95%    
  Dec 22, 2024 52   Utah St. W 72-67 66%    
  Dec 28, 2024 277   Pacific W 77-56 97%    
  Jan 02, 2025 258   Pepperdine W 77-57 96%    
  Jan 04, 2025 309   @ Portland W 76-60 93%    
  Jan 07, 2025 181   Loyola Marymount W 74-59 92%    
  Jan 11, 2025 312   @ San Diego W 75-59 93%    
  Jan 18, 2025 258   @ Pepperdine W 74-60 89%    
  Jan 23, 2025 64   San Francisco W 69-64 68%    
  Jan 25, 2025 74   @ Washington St. W 70-69 53%    
  Jan 29, 2025 84   @ Santa Clara W 70-68 57%    
  Feb 01, 2025 1   Gonzaga L 69-76 27%    
  Feb 06, 2025 64   @ San Francisco L 66-67 47%    
  Feb 08, 2025 76   @ Oregon St. W 66-65 53%    
  Feb 11, 2025 84   Santa Clara W 73-65 76%    
  Feb 15, 2025 74   Washington St. W 73-66 73%    
  Feb 19, 2025 309   Portland W 79-57 97%    
  Feb 22, 2025 1   @ Gonzaga L 66-79 13%    
  Feb 27, 2025 181   @ Loyola Marymount W 71-62 79%    
  Mar 01, 2025 76   Oregon St. W 69-62 73%    
Projected Record 22 - 8 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.6 3.6 2.1 0.3 9.5 1st
2nd 0.2 2.3 8.9 13.8 9.5 2.5 37.1 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.3 8.7 8.6 2.6 0.1 22.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.6 6.5 5.3 1.0 0.0 14.6 4th
5th 0.2 1.4 4.0 3.2 0.5 9.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.3 1.5 0.2 5.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.1 1.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.8 4.3 7.4 12.4 16.8 18.5 17.1 12.3 6.1 2.1 0.3 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 100.0% 2.1    1.5 0.5
16-2 59.7% 3.6    1.9 1.7 0.0
15-3 21.3% 2.6    0.8 1.5 0.3 0.0
14-4 4.4% 0.8    0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.5% 9.5 4.6 4.2 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 100.0% 38.7% 61.3% 2.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 2.1% 98.6% 34.4% 64.2% 4.5 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.9%
16-2 6.1% 93.0% 25.4% 67.5% 6.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.4 90.6%
15-3 12.3% 82.2% 20.8% 61.4% 8.5 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.6 2.0 2.1 1.5 0.1 2.2 77.6%
14-4 17.1% 63.0% 14.1% 48.9% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.1 1.9 3.2 3.7 0.2 6.3 56.9%
13-5 18.5% 39.9% 10.1% 29.8% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 2.0 3.9 0.4 11.1 33.1%
12-6 16.8% 21.5% 5.8% 15.6% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.3 0.3 13.2 16.6%
11-7 12.4% 11.3% 4.4% 6.9% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.2 11.0 7.2%
10-8 7.4% 6.1% 2.9% 3.2% 11.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 6.9 3.3%
9-9 4.3% 2.2% 1.7% 0.5% 11.3 0.1 0.0 4.2 0.5%
8-10 1.8% 1.4% 1.4% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8
7-11 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 12.0 0.0 0.7
6-12 0.2% 1.7% 1.7% 12.0 0.0 0.2
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 41.9% 11.1% 30.8% 9.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.7 2.2 3.0 3.9 5.5 8.8 13.0 1.3 0.0 58.1 34.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.7 50.0 31.8 18.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.9 34.3 42.9 22.9