St. Thomas
Summit League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.7#131
Expected Predictive Rating+2.1#135
Pace69.3#191
Improvement+4.4#9

Offense
Total Offense+1.2#135
First Shot+6.2#36
After Offensive Rebound-5.0#361
Layup/Dunks+9.3#3
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.9#364
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.3#59
Freethrows-2.6#314
Improvement+1.8#55

Defense
Total Defense+0.6#145
First Shot-0.7#196
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#95
Layups/Dunks-2.3#269
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#38
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#200
Freethrows-0.1#190
Improvement+2.6#29
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 33.7% 34.7% 28.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.8 14.2
.500 or above 99.0% 99.4% 97.1%
.500 or above in Conference 97.4% 97.6% 96.0%
Conference Champion 45.3% 46.9% 37.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.4%
First Round33.6% 34.6% 28.4%
Second Round2.0% 2.2% 1.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC Riverside (Home) - 83.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 35 - 45 - 6
Quad 416 - 321 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 41 @St. Mary's L 58-84 11%     0 - 1 -10.9 -1.4 -11.6
  Sat, Nov 8 332 Army W 83-76 91%     1 - 1 -6.4 +5.6 -11.9
  Mon, Nov 10 149 @Washington St. L 71-81 42%     1 - 2 -6.2 +1.2 -7.6
  Thu, Nov 13 264 Green Bay W 80-61 84%     2 - 2 +10.3 +1.2 +9.1
  Sat, Nov 15 213 @Southeast Missouri St. W 84-72 58%     3 - 2 +11.6 +4.9 +5.7
  Fri, Nov 21 151 Northern Colorado W 73-72 55%     4 - 2 +1.6 -3.7 +5.2
  Sat, Nov 22 267 Cal St. Fullerton L 80-88 76%     4 - 3 -13.8 -2.3 -10.8
  Sun, Nov 23 246 @Portland W 76-66 64%     5 - 3 +8.1 +1.5 +6.4
  Wed, Dec 3 169 @Montana St. L 74-82 48%     5 - 4 -5.8 +5.4 -11.5
  Sun, Dec 7 215 Weber St. W 88-65 78%     6 - 4 +16.6 +11.0 +5.5
  Sat, Dec 13 219 @UNC Asheville W 80-59 59%     7 - 4 +20.4 +9.9 +11.6
  Sat, Dec 20 265 UC Riverside W 79-69 84%    
  Sun, Jan 4 314 Denver W 86-72 90%    
  Wed, Jan 7 274 South Dakota W 87-76 84%    
  Sat, Jan 10 300 @Oral Roberts W 80-74 72%    
  Thu, Jan 15 344 @North Dakota W 78-68 83%    
  Sat, Jan 17 148 @North Dakota St. L 73-75 42%    
  Thu, Jan 22 164 South Dakota St. W 77-72 68%    
  Sat, Jan 24 274 @South Dakota W 84-79 67%    
  Thu, Jan 29 344 North Dakota W 81-65 93%    
  Sun, Feb 1 347 UMKC W 81-64 93%    
  Wed, Feb 4 164 @South Dakota St. L 74-75 46%    
  Sat, Feb 7 300 Oral Roberts W 83-71 87%    
  Thu, Feb 12 231 @Nebraska Omaha W 76-73 60%    
  Sat, Feb 14 347 @UMKC W 78-67 83%    
  Sat, Feb 21 314 @Denver W 83-75 76%    
  Thu, Feb 26 148 North Dakota St. W 76-72 64%    
  Sat, Feb 28 231 Nebraska Omaha W 79-70 78%    
Projected Record 20 - 8 12 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 2.0 7.8 13.3 12.8 7.2 2.1 45.3 1st
2nd 0.3 3.0 8.4 9.4 4.4 0.7 26.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.5 6.3 5.1 1.5 0.1 15.8 3rd
4th 0.2 1.4 3.4 2.1 0.4 0.0 7.5 4th
5th 0.1 0.7 1.5 0.9 0.1 3.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.5 7.1 11.6 15.9 18.8 17.8 13.5 7.2 2.1 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 2.1    2.1
15-1 100.0% 7.2    7.0 0.2
14-2 94.9% 12.8    10.8 1.9 0.0
13-3 74.6% 13.3    8.5 4.4 0.4
12-4 41.8% 7.8    3.2 3.6 1.0 0.1
11-5 12.8% 2.0    0.3 0.9 0.7 0.1 0.0
10-6 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 45.3% 45.3 31.9 11.0 2.2 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 2.1% 59.4% 59.4% 11.8 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.8
15-1 7.2% 52.8% 52.8% 12.8 0.1 1.3 2.0 0.5 0.0 3.4
14-2 13.5% 47.0% 47.0% 13.4 0.6 3.0 2.4 0.3 0.0 7.1
13-3 17.8% 41.3% 41.3% 13.8 0.1 2.3 3.8 1.1 0.0 10.4
12-4 18.8% 33.2% 33.2% 14.1 0.0 1.1 3.3 1.6 0.1 12.6
11-5 15.9% 27.7% 27.7% 14.4 0.0 0.4 2.0 1.9 0.1 11.5
10-6 11.6% 21.6% 21.6% 14.8 0.1 0.7 1.5 0.3 9.1
9-7 7.1% 17.3% 17.3% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.3 5.8
8-8 3.5% 12.8% 12.8% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.2 3.1
7-9 1.7% 9.3% 9.3% 15.8 0.0 0.1 1.5
6-10 0.7% 6.3% 6.3% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.6
5-11 0.2% 4.6% 4.6% 16.0 0.0 0.2
4-12 0.1% 9.1% 9.1% 16.0 0.0 0.1
3-13 0.0% 0.0
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 33.7% 33.7% 0.0% 13.8 0.0 0.5 2.7 9.1 12.9 7.3 1.2 66.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.1% 100.0% 11.7 0.9 36.9 53.8 8.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%