Utah St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +14.8 32
Expected Predictive Rating +15.9 29
Pace 69.2 162
Improvement +1.8 115

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense A- 26 B+ A B- C+ A-
Defense B 44 B+ C A- C- B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% 17 B 64% 60 +7.4 10
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% 321 C 38% 187 -2.8 311
Three Pointers 41% 169 B 37% 52 +2.2 104
Shot Selection/Accuracy A- +1.6 17 B +4.4 52
1st FG Attempt B+ 1.15 32
Second Chance B+ 36.8% 31 A- 1.22 14 A 0.45 10
Turnovers B- 15.1% 75
Freethrows C+ 0.33 123 C 72% 194 C+ 0.23 130
Total Offense A- +9.2 26

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 295 B+ 52% 42 -4.4 45
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 90 B 34% 44 +0.1 196
Three Pointers 42% 144 B- 32% 82 -0.9 143
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- -0.6 76 B+ -4.5 37
1st FG Attempt B+ 0.92 36
Second Chance C 30.7% 191 C 1.02 162 C 0.31 181
Turnovers A- 21.0% 15
Freethrows C- 0.32 223 C 72% 198 C- 0.23 226
Total Defense B +5.6 44

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.2 67 18.1 302
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.26 13 0.14 70
Improvement +3.3 #42 -1.5 #265

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 5% 6% 0%
Top 6 Seed 29% 33% 13%
NCAA Tourney Bid 97% 97% 93%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 94% 96% 90%
Average Seed 7.2 7.1 8.0
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 68% 73% 47%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four1% 0% 2%
First Round96% 97% 92%
Second Round58% 60% 50%
Sweet Sixteen16% 18% 11%
Elite Eight5% 6% 4%
Final Four1% 2% 1%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Boise St. (Home) - 80.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b4 - 24 - 3
Quad 29 - 113 - 4
Quad 39 - 122 - 5
Quad 45 - 027 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 50 Virginia Commonwealth W 80 - 77 64% +8  88% 1 - 0 B+ +14 C+ +2 C A+ F A +12 B- A A+
 Wed, Nov 12 230 Weber St. W 83 - 73 97% +4  68% 2 - 0 C+ +3 C +1 F A A+ C+ +2 A+ F B-
 Sat, Nov 15 239 UTEP W 75 - 51 97% +12  93% 3 - 0 A- +17 C- -0 C+ B+ F A+ +18 A+ C A+
 Fri, Nov 21 172 Tulane W 96 - 75 92% +6  62% 4 - 0 A +20 A+ +23 A+ A- B+ C- -2 D- C- A-
 Sun, Nov 23 111 Davidson W 94 - 60 86% +17  100% 5 - 0 A+ +37 A+ +20 A+ B D+ A+ +18 A+ C+ A+
 Sat, Nov 29 147 Montana St. W 84 - 81 OT 94% +3  80% 6 - 0 C +1 C- -0 C C B+ C+ +1 B- C A
 Thu, Dec 4 61 @South Florida L 61 - 74 62% -15  0% 6 - 1 C -1 F -10 F+ D- C- A- +9 C- A+ A+
 Sun, Dec 7 184 @Charlotte W 79 - 53 89% +11  71% 7 - 1 A+ +27 B+ +8 B- D- A A+ +22 A+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 13 103 Illinois St. W 83 - 78 83% +6  88% 8 - 1 B +10 A+ +15 A+ A+ F D+ -5 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 100 Colorado St. W 100 - 58 88% +24  98% 9 - 1 1 - 0 A+ +44 A+ +33 A+ A+ C A+ +15 A+ B- A
 Tue, Dec 30 132 @Fresno St. W 72 - 63 83% +7  87% 10 - 1 2 - 0 B+ +14 D+ -4 B D- F A+ +17 A A+ A
 Sat, Jan 3 240 San Jose St. W 96 - 78 97% +1  37% 11 - 1 3 - 0 B +11 A+ +23 A+ A+ A+ F -11 F+ C+ C
 Tue, Jan 6 349 @Air Force W 99 - 62 98% +20  99% 12 - 1 4 - 0 A+ +27 A+ +27 B- A+ A B- +2 B F+ D+
 Sat, Jan 10 58 @Boise St. W 93 - 68 61% +19  98% 13 - 1 5 - 0 A+ +37 A+ +29 A A+ A- A +10 A+ F+ B+
 Wed, Jan 14 69 Nevada W 71 - 62 82% +3  78% 14 - 1 6 - 0 B+ +14 C+ +2 B+ D C A+ +13 C+ A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 17 65 @Grand Canyon L 74 - 84 63% -5  2% 14 - 2 6 - 1 C +1 A +12 D+ A+ A+ F -11 F D+ C
 Tue, Jan 20 123 UNLV L 76 - 86 91% +3  66% 14 - 3 6 - 2 D -10 C +0 D B- A+ F+ -11 C- F C+
 Fri, Jan 23 100 @Colorado St. W 65 - 61 74% -4  18% 15 - 3 7 - 2 B+ +12 C- -1 C+ C- C- A+ +13 C F A+
 Wed, Jan 28 106 Wyoming W 94 - 62 89% +22  96% 16 - 3 8 - 2 A+ +33 A+ +24 A+ A+ A+ A +11 A+ D B+
 Sat, Jan 31 42 San Diego St. W 71 - 66 69% -2  22% 17 - 3 9 - 2 A- +15 C- -1 C C- D+ A+ +15 A A+ C
 Wed, Feb 4 49 @New Mexico W 86 - 66 53% +8  80% 18 - 3 10 - 2 A+ +34 A+ +15 A A- B+ A+ +19 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Feb 7 106 @Wyoming W 85 - 83 77% +3  69% 19 - 3 11 - 2 B +9 A+ +15 A+ F C+ D -6 D+ B F
 Tue, Feb 10 132 Fresno St. W 91 - 78 92% +10  79% 20 - 3 12 - 2 B+ +12 A+ +18 A- A+ A+ D -6 A- F F+
 Sat, Feb 14 93 Memphis W 99 - 75 87% +9  81% 21 - 3 A+ +26 A+ +26 A+ A A+ C +0 A+ D- D
 Wed, Feb 18 58 Boise St. W 80 - 71 80%
 Sat, Feb 21 69 @Nevada W 76 - 72 64%
 Wed, Feb 25 42 @San Diego St. L 73 - 74 48%
 Sat, Feb 28 65 Grand Canyon W 78 - 69 81%
 Tue, Mar 3 123 @UNLV W 85 - 76 81%
 Sat, Mar 7 49 New Mexico W 83 - 76 73%
Totals 25 - 5 16 - 4 +15 A- +9 C+ B A- B +6 B C C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings A- B C B B 46% 24% 41% A- B+ B+ A- A B- C+ C C+ B B+ B B- B+ 35% 23% 42% B- B+ C C C A- C- C C-
1.22 64% 38% 37% +4 +2 1.15 37% 1.2 .45 15% .33 72% .23 1.01 52% 34% 32% -5 -1 0.92 31% 1.0 .31 21% .32 72% .24
Nov
7		 Virginia Commonwealth C+ D- F A+ D+ 64% 13% 23% A+ C A A+ A+ F A+ D+ A+ A B C- D+ C+ 31% 14% 55% B+ B- D A+ A A+ F A+ C
1.05 47% 17% 45% -6 +3 0.96 39% 1.4 .56 24% .45 69% .31 1.01 53% 43% 37% +2 0 1.06 38% 0.7 .27 25% .49 57% .28
Nov
12		 Weber St. C A D F F 42% 16% 42% C F C+ A+ A A+ A+ B- A+ C+ A+ D+ A+ A+ 37% 16% 47% B A+ D+ F F B- F D F
1.17 74% 33% 13% -7 +1 0.89 31% 1.5 .46 8% .45 76% .34 1.03 39% 38% 26% -13 0 0.78 33% 1.6 .54 18% .48 75% .36
Nov
15		 UTEP C- A+ C F C 39% 12% 49% A- C+ A+ D B+ F A+ F A+ A+ F+ A+ A+ A+ 36% 32% 32% C- A+ B D- C A+ F A+ C
1.10 75% 40% 25% 0 +1 1.05 47% 0.9 .43 25% .71 64% .45 0.75 69% 14% 14% -13 -2 0.73 23% 1.1 .26 24% .36 53% .19
Nov
21		 Tulane A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 34% 24% 42% D+ A+ C+ A+ A- B+ C- D+ C- C- A+ A F F 20% 22% 57% A D- A- F C- A- B- B B
1.40 76% 67% 52% +25 -1 1.50 36% 1.2 .44 15% .31 67% .20 1.09 30% 27% 50% +6 -2 1.10 16% 1.6 .25 19% .34 74% .25
Nov
23		 Davidson A+ A+ F A+ A+ 40% 13% 47% A- A+ C- A+ B D+ D- A+ C+ A+ F A+ A A+ 17% 28% 54% A+ A+ D+ B+ C+ A+ D- B- D+
1.34 86% 29% 44% +17 +1 1.38 29% 1.3 .38 20% .25 86% .21 0.85 75% 31% 28% -4 -3 0.89 33% 0.9 .31 27% .33 65% .21
Nov
29		 Montana St. C- F A+ B C- 54% 7% 39% A C D- A+ C B+ A+ F+ A- C+ A- D C B- 22% 22% 55% C+ B- D- A- C A D+ F F
1.08 43% 75% 36% -4 +3 1.00 24% 1.3 .32 13% .39 69% .27 1.05 46% 46% 34% 0 -1 0.98 33% 0.9 .29 21% .29 89% .26
Dec
4		 South Florida F F D+ D- F 37% 24% 39% C+ F+ C- F D- C- D- D+ D- A- A- F D+ C 48% 7% 45% C- C- A+ B- A+ A+ F C- F
0.86 42% 33% 30% -9 0 0.82 28% 0.8 .21 20% .26 67% .18 1.05 48% 67% 35% -2 +2 1.02 29% 1.1 .32 24% .60 75% .45
Dec
7		 Charlotte B+ A+ F F C+ 48% 10% 42% A B- C F D- A C A+ B+ A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 20% 20% 60% A+ A+ D- F F A+ F A+ C
1.22 79% 20% 24% +2 +2 1.10 30% 0.9 .27 9% .32 84% .27 0.82 50% 25% 21% -16 -1 0.68 39% 1.3 .50 29% .44 55% .24
Dec
13		 Illinois St. A+ A F A+ A+ 54% 13% 33% A+ A+ A+ D- A+ F C A+ B- D+ F D B F 39% 32% 30% B+ F F+ F F A+ D+ F F+
1.24 69% 17% 44% +8 +2 1.23 63% 0.8 .53 24% .29 80% .24 1.17 88% 43% 31% +12 -1 1.23 33% 1.7 .57 25% .32 81% .26
Dec
20		 Colorado St. A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 50% 10% 40% A+ A+ A+ C+ A+ C A+ F A A+ A+ C A A+ 32% 20% 49% B A+ B+ C- B- A F+ D+ F+
1.57 67% 60% 58% +21 +2 1.48 59% 1.2 .70 16% .45 58% .26 0.91 38% 38% 30% -9 0 0.83 27% 1.1 .30 24% .39 79% .31
Dec
30		 Fresno St. D+ B- D+ D- B- 51% 12% 37% A B C+ F D- F A+ D- A A+ C B A+ A 33% 24% 43% B+ A B+ A+ A+ A F F+ F
0.95 64% 33% 28% -1 +2 1.04 29% 0.7 .21 26% .39 68% .27 0.83 59% 33% 23% -8 -1 0.84 24% 0.2 .05 24% .38 82% .31
Jan
3		 San Jose St. A+ B+ A A+ A+ 57% 9% 35% A A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ F C A F F+ 38% 23% 38% F+ F+ D- A C+ C F F F
1.49 69% 50% 44% +12 +3 1.33 42% 1.7 .71 12% .46 81% .37 1.21 56% 27% 50% +6 0 1.13 38% 0.8 .31 16% .40 82% .33
Jan
6		 Air Force A+ C B- A- C+ 43% 13% 43% A- B- A+ A+ A+ A D+ F+ D B- C A+ C B 41% 20% 39% B- B C+ F F+ D+ D- F F
1.50 61% 43% 39% +5 +1 1.15 44% 2.2 .97 11% .29 65% .19 0.94 58% 11% 33% -6 0 0.91 21% 1.6 .33 20% .36 74% .26
Jan
10		 Boise St. A+ B+ C B+ B+ 43% 11% 46% A+ A A+ A+ A+ A- A A A+ A A+ F A A+ 37% 14% 49% C+ A+ F+ D F+ B+ F C+ F
1.42 65% 40% 38% +6 +2 1.17 41% 2.2 .90 12% .37 76% .28 1.04 38% 50% 29% -10 +1 0.84 40% 1.1 .46 18% .47 76% .36
Jan
14		 Nevada C+ B D C B 45% 14% 41% B+ B+ D+ C- D C A+ A+ A+ A+ A A+ F C+ 44% 33% 23% B- C+ D+ A+ A+ A+ B C B
1.08 60% 33% 33% 0 +1 1.05 23% 1.1 .27 17% .44 83% .37 0.94 43% 25% 64% -1 -1 0.98 37% 0.2 .07 21% .33 76% .25
Jan
17		 Grand Canyon A F A+ F D 35% 25% 40% C D+ A+ C- A+ A+ A- C+ A- F D+ F F F 43% 18% 39% C- F D- C+ D+ C F A- F
1.12 33% 62% 24% -9 -1 0.83 47% 1.0 .49 11% .39 74% .29 1.28 63% 50% 41% +9 +1 1.20 38% 1.0 .38 17% .60 70% .42
Jan
20		 UNLV C C F F F+ 50% 6% 44% A+ D B- B- B- A+ A+ F C+ F+ A D+ F C- 51% 23% 26% C- C- F F F C+ F F F
1.11 56% 0% 27% -8 +3 0.92 33% 1.2 .38 12% .51 55% .28 1.26 46% 45% 58% +5 +1 1.13 42% 1.1 .45 18% .44 84% .37
Jan
23		 Colorado St. C- A- A+ F B- 32% 30% 38% D C+ D- A- C- C- F A+ F A+ F C+ F D 16% 37% 47% A+ C B- F F A+ A A- A
1.05 69% 53% 26% +4 -2 1.06 21% 1.3 .28 16% .10 80% .08 0.98 83% 36% 44% +11 -4 1.16 30% 1.7 .52 34% .24 70% .17
Jan
28		 Wyoming A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ 35% 7% 58% C+ A+ B A+ A+ A+ D C+ D+ A A+ A A+ A+ 36% 13% 51% C+ A+ C- D D B+ C A+ B
1.43 74% 75% 38% +11 +1 1.27 31% 1.6 .48 8% .35 71% .25 0.94 41% 33% 25% -14 +1 0.77 37% 1.1 .40 20% .34 67% .23
Jan
31		 San Diego St. C- D A+ F D+ 50% 7% 43% A+ C A F C- D+ A+ F C+ A+ A+ F A+ A+ 38% 19% 42% F+ A A+ A+ A+ C B- C- C+
0.94 50% 50% 25% -9 +3 0.89 38% 0.6 .23 24% .40 57% .23 0.88 45% 60% 27% -5 0 0.92 16% 0.7 .11 17% .29 78% .22
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
4		 New Mexico A+ B- A+ C+ A 35% 12% 53% A- A B A A- B+ A D- B+ A+ C- A+ A+ A+ 53% 19% 28% C A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F B+ F
1.18 61% 67% 33% +4 +1 1.12 32% 1.2 .39 16% .36 68% .25 0.91 60% 22% 23% -6 +1 0.91 21% 0.3 .06 21% .52 70% .36
Feb
7		 Wyoming A+ A+ F A+ A+ 63% 9% 28% A A+ F F F C+ A+ B- A+ D A F F C- 46% 11% 43% D+ D+ A C- B F A- F B-
1.26 78% 25% 50% +18 +3 1.44 15% 0.7 .10 16% .51 72% .37 1.23 46% 67% 42% +3 +2 1.11 29% 1.0 .29 10% .26 88% .23
Feb
10		 Fresno St. A+ C F A B+ 37% 6% 57% A- A- B- A+ A+ A+ B A- A- D D A+ B B+ 33% 23% 44% B+ A- F F+ F F+ F D+ F
1.30 60% 0% 39% +3 +2 1.11 31% 2.0 .63 13% .31 79% .25 1.11 65% 17% 30% -5 -1 0.90 38% 1.1 .43 14% .38 78% .30
Feb
14		 Memphis A+ A+ F A- A+ 42% 10% 48% A A+ B A A A+ A+ B A+ C B A+ A+ A+ 32% 32% 36% A A+ F C D- D F F F
1.38 76% 20% 38% +8 +2 1.22 36% 1.2 .42 13% .57 75% .43 1.05 53% 20% 24% -13 -2 0.72 44% 1.2 .51 17% .57 79% .45



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 4.1 20.6 29.8 13.7 68.4 1st
2nd 0.1 2.4 11.9 10.4 1.7 26.5 2nd
3rd 0.4 2.8 1.0 4.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 0.3 0.8 4th
5th 0.1 0.2 0.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.1 1.1 5.6 17.0 31.0 31.5 13.7 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 13.7    13.7
17-3 94.6% 29.8    23.2 6.6
16-4 66.5% 20.6    9.3 10.7 0.6
15-5 24.3% 4.1    0.5 2.0 1.5 0.1 0.0
14-6 2.2% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9
10-10
Total 68.4% 68.4 46.7 19.3 2.2 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 13.7% 99.9% 47.7% 52.2% 5.3 0.1 1.2 2.8 3.4 3.5 2.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 99.8%
17-3 31.5% 98.8% 42.5% 56.4% 6.7 0.1 0.5 3.0 9.6 10.8 5.6 1.6 0.1 0.4 98.0%
16-4 31.0% 97.3% 36.0% 61.3% 7.7 0.0 0.5 4.0 8.9 9.9 5.4 1.4 0.1 0.9 95.7%
15-5 17.0% 93.5% 33.1% 60.4% 8.4 0.0 0.7 2.6 5.3 4.8 2.2 0.3 1.1 90.3%
14-6 5.6% 86.0% 28.8% 57.2% 9.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.7 1.2 0.4 0.8 80.4%
13-7 1.1% 75.1% 17.5% 57.6% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 69.8%
12-8 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 96.6% 38.5% 58.0% 7.2 3.4 94.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 6.5% 100.0% 4.3 2.0 18.3 38.3 31.6 8.9 0.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.8% 99.8% 6.0 0.9 5.9 23.0 40.6 25.5 3.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.6% 99.8% 6.2 2.5 19.8 40.3 30.9 5.9 0.4