Vermont
America East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.1#175
Expected Predictive Rating+0.3#161
Pace62.9#336
Improvement+1.0#108

Offense
Total Offense+2.2#115
First Shot+5.1#62
After Offensive Rebound-2.8#341
Layup/Dunks+0.8#148
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#206
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.1#43
Freethrows-0.4#208
Improvement-1.6#300

Defense
Total Defense-3.3#281
First Shot-4.7#328
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#82
Layups/Dunks-0.9#209
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#241
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#281
Freethrows-0.5#221
Improvement+2.5#33
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 45.0% 46.6% 42.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.8 15.3
.500 or above 98.4% 99.4% 96.8%
.500 or above in Conference 98.5% 98.9% 97.9%
Conference Champion 67.3% 70.6% 62.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Four6.2% 4.6% 8.6%
First Round42.3% 44.8% 38.4%
Second Round1.0% 1.1% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Iona (Home) - 60.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 32 - 42 - 5
Quad 419 - 521 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sun, Nov 9 222 @Brown W 89-84 2OT 48%     1 - 0 +4.4 +7.2 -3.5
  Sat, Nov 15 212 @Northeastern W 85-74 47%     2 - 0 +10.6 +14.4 -3.7
  Tue, Nov 18 209 @Buffalo L 90-94 47%     2 - 1 -4.2 +10.8 -14.8
  Mon, Nov 24 107 Liberty L 73-79 32%     2 - 2 -2.2 +3.8 -6.2
  Tue, Nov 25 116 Rhode Island L 65-80 33%     2 - 3 -11.6 +1.5 -14.6
  Wed, Nov 26 257 Princeton W 79-74 66%     3 - 3 -0.4 +12.9 -12.9
  Sun, Nov 30 78 Yale L 74-77 30%     3 - 4 +1.4 +7.9 -6.9
  Wed, Dec 3 165 @Oregon St. L 58-80 36%     3 - 5 -19.4 -6.1 -16.0
  Sat, Dec 6 294 @Pepperdine W 65-56 62%     4 - 5 +4.8 +0.6 +5.3
  Sun, Dec 14 266 Merrimack W 66-59 77%     5 - 5 -1.7 +2.9 -3.3
  Wed, Dec 17 171 Siena W 83-69 61%     6 - 5 +10.1 +9.7 +0.5
  Sat, Dec 20 172 Iona W 78-75 61%    
  Tue, Dec 30 257 @Princeton W 70-69 55%    
  Sat, Jan 3 338 @New Hampshire W 73-66 73%    
  Thu, Jan 8 360 Binghamton W 79-62 94%    
  Thu, Jan 15 335 Maine W 72-59 88%    
  Mon, Jan 19 306 @Albany W 75-71 65%    
  Thu, Jan 22 303 @Umass Lowell W 76-73 62%    
  Sat, Jan 24 299 @Bryant W 71-68 62%    
  Thu, Jan 29 285 Maryland Baltimore Co. W 77-68 78%    
  Sat, Jan 31 352 NJIT W 78-63 92%    
  Thu, Feb 5 335 @Maine W 69-62 72%    
  Sat, Feb 7 338 New Hampshire W 76-63 88%    
  Thu, Feb 12 360 @Binghamton W 76-65 83%    
  Sat, Feb 14 299 Bryant W 74-65 79%    
  Thu, Feb 19 285 @Maryland Baltimore Co. W 74-71 60%    
  Sat, Feb 21 352 @NJIT W 75-66 79%    
  Thu, Feb 26 303 Umass Lowell W 79-70 80%    
  Tue, Mar 3 306 Albany W 78-68 82%    
Projected Record 20 - 9 12 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 4.7 12.5 17.8 16.8 11.2 3.7 67.3 1st
2nd 0.5 3.3 6.6 5.3 1.8 0.2 17.5 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.2 3.6 1.8 0.2 8.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 2.0 0.9 0.0 3.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.4 0.0 1.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 2.5 5.2 8.4 13.1 17.9 19.6 17.0 11.2 3.7 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 3.7    3.7
15-1 100.0% 11.2    11.1 0.1
14-2 98.9% 16.8    15.7 1.0
13-3 90.9% 17.8    14.5 3.2 0.1
12-4 69.4% 12.5    7.1 4.7 0.7 0.0
11-5 36.0% 4.7    1.4 2.3 0.8 0.2 0.0
10-6 7.5% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 67.3% 67.3 53.6 11.4 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 3.7% 63.5% 63.5% 13.0 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.4
15-1 11.2% 60.5% 60.5% 14.1 0.1 1.4 3.2 1.9 0.2 4.4
14-2 17.0% 55.0% 55.0% 14.7 0.4 3.0 4.7 1.2 7.6
13-3 19.6% 47.7% 47.7% 15.1 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.8 3.0 10.3
12-4 17.9% 44.1% 44.1% 15.5 0.0 0.4 3.2 4.3 10.0
11-5 13.1% 37.3% 37.3% 15.7 0.2 1.3 3.4 8.2
10-6 8.4% 29.7% 29.7% 15.9 0.0 0.3 2.2 5.9
9-7 5.2% 24.1% 24.1% 15.9 0.1 1.2 3.9
8-8 2.5% 20.0% 20.0% 16.0 0.0 0.5 2.0
7-9 0.9% 9.3% 9.3% 16.0 0.1 0.8
6-10 0.4% 14.3% 14.3% 16.0 0.1 0.4
5-11 0.2% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2
4-12 0.0% 0.0
3-13 0.0% 0.0
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 45.0% 45.0% 0.0% 15.0 0.1 0.8 2.8 8.7 16.5 16.1 55.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.2% 100.0% 12.4 8.4 47.6 40.6 3.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%