Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
156 Northern Colorado 18.1%   14   6 - 1 0 - 0 18 - 10 11 - 7 +0.2      +0.5 150 -0.4 175 70.8 152 +6.0 97 0.0 1
162 Idaho St. 16.4%   4 - 5 0 - 0 15 - 13 10 - 8 -0.1      -0.2 174 +0.1 164 62.7 336 +0.2 167 0.0 1
173 Idaho 14.2%   4 - 4 0 - 0 16 - 12 10 - 8 -1.0      +1.9 121 -2.9 271 66.0 273 +1.6 150 0.0 1
174 Montana St. 13.0%   2 - 7 0 - 0 13 - 15 10 - 8 -1.0      -1.6 211 +0.6 148 65.2 292 -6.6 264 0.0 1
178 Portland St. 13.3%   3 - 3 0 - 0 13 - 13 10 - 8 -1.3      -3.6 259 +2.4 99 70.2 168 -1.6 191 0.0 1
205 Montana 8.0%   3 - 5 0 - 0 12 - 15 9 - 9 -2.9      +0.1 165 -3.0 275 72.8 91 -4.5 238 0.0 1
214 Weber St. 6.8%   4 - 5 0 - 0 13 - 16 9 - 9 -3.3      -1.9 219 -1.4 219 72.3 108 -3.9 233 0.0 1
240 Eastern Washington 4.6%   1 - 8 0 - 0 9 - 21 8 - 10 -4.5      +0.6 147 -5.1 335 72.5 101 -13.9 343 0.0 1
270 Northern Arizona 3.0%   2 - 6 0 - 0 10 - 18 7 - 11 -5.8      -3.6 257 -2.2 246 66.6 260 -6.5 262 0.0 1
280 Sacramento St. 2.6%   1 - 6 0 - 0 8 - 19 7 - 11 -6.3      -4.1 278 -2.2 245 76.5 37 -8.4 294 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Wed, Dec 10 162 Idaho St. 69 84 Utah Valley 73   
Wed, Dec 10 173 Idaho 65 55 Notre Dame 80   
Wed, Dec 10 345 UMKC 60 214 Weber St. 64   
Fri, Dec 12 127 California Baptist 88 240 Eastern Washington 83   
Sat, Dec 13 174 Montana St. 57 157 Oregon St. 67   
Sat, Dec 13 270 Northern Arizona 69 246 San Diego 78   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Tue, Dec 16 249 Cal Poly 77 174 Montana St. 78 54%   
Tue, Dec 16 156 Northern Colorado 67 24 Texas Tech 84 94%   
Wed, Dec 17 62 Colorado 81 178 Portland St. 68 88%   
Wed, Dec 17 240 Eastern Washington 79 165 Washington St. 83 65%   
Wed, Dec 17 84 Utah Valley 80 214 Weber St. 67 88%   
Thu, Dec 18 270 Northern Arizona 76 318 Southern Utah 70 73%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Northern Colorado 3.6 25.8 18.0 13.8 11.2 9.3 7.3 5.8 4.2 2.9 1.7
Idaho St. 3.8 20.6 17.2 14.2 12.4 10.4 8.3 6.7 5.1 3.4 1.8
Idaho 4.0 19.6 15.8 14.2 12.0 10.4 8.7 7.1 5.4 4.3 2.4
Montana St. 4.2 17.5 15.2 14.0 12.4 10.9 9.4 7.6 6.3 4.2 2.6
Portland St. 4.3 17.2 14.6 13.1 11.6 10.4 9.2 8.2 6.7 5.4 3.5
Montana 5.3 9.0 10.2 10.9 11.2 11.6 11.4 10.6 9.8 8.9 6.5
Weber St. 5.6 7.4 8.8 10.1 10.9 11.7 11.9 11.8 10.9 9.6 7.1
Eastern Washington 6.3 4.4 6.0 7.4 8.8 10.2 11.9 12.6 13.7 13.2 11.7
Northern Arizona 7.0 2.6 3.9 5.5 6.7 8.2 9.9 12.3 14.4 17.3 19.1
Sacramento St. 7.3 2.2 3.4 4.5 6.0 7.6 9.2 11.9 14.3 18.0 22.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Northern Colorado 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.9 3.5 5.6 8.2 10.6 12.3 13.3 13.3 11.3 8.4 5.7 2.9 1.1 0.2
Idaho St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.3 4.1 6.6 9.3 11.9 13.6 13.5 12.6 10.3 7.2 4.1 2.0 0.7 0.1
Idaho 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.9 4.7 7.0 10.0 11.8 13.3 13.3 11.6 9.6 6.8 4.1 1.8 0.7 0.1
Montana St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.6 2.9 5.1 7.8 10.4 12.5 13.6 13.3 11.5 8.9 6.0 3.4 1.5 0.5 0.1
Portland St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.0 3.6 6.1 8.2 10.7 11.9 12.9 12.3 10.9 8.6 5.8 3.4 1.6 0.6 0.1
Montana 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.0 3.9 6.2 8.9 10.9 13.1 13.3 12.1 10.4 7.8 5.2 2.9 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0
Weber St. 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.4 4.2 6.9 9.9 12.3 13.6 13.3 12.1 9.4 6.8 4.2 2.4 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0
Eastern Washington 8 - 10 0.1 0.5 1.8 3.9 6.6 9.6 12.2 14.1 13.6 11.9 9.5 7.1 4.5 2.5 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Northern Arizona 7 - 11 0.3 1.4 3.5 6.3 9.7 12.4 13.9 13.6 11.9 9.6 7.0 5.1 2.9 1.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Sacramento St. 7 - 11 0.4 1.9 4.4 7.4 10.7 12.9 13.7 13.5 11.3 8.8 6.2 4.0 2.5 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Northern Colorado 25.8% 17.1 6.5 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Idaho St. 20.6% 13.2 5.4 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Idaho 19.6% 12.5 5.2 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
Montana St. 17.5% 10.9 4.9 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Portland St. 17.2% 10.8 4.6 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Montana 9.0% 5.3 2.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Weber St. 7.4% 4.1 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Eastern Washington 4.4% 2.3 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Northern Arizona 2.6% 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Sacramento St. 2.2% 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Northern Colorado 18.1% 18.1% 0.0% 14   0.0 0.0 0.2 2.0 5.2 6.6 3.4 0.7 81.9 0.0%
Idaho St. 16.4% 16.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.3 5.7 4.8 1.8 83.6 0.0%
Idaho 14.2% 14.2% 0.0% 0.1 0.6 2.6 5.0 4.3 1.5 85.8 0.0%
Montana St. 13.0% 13.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.1 3.0 4.6 4.1 87.0 0.0%
Portland St. 13.3% 13.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.3 4.3 4.3 1.7 86.8 0.0%
Montana 8.0% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.7 3.1 2.4 92.0 0.0%
Weber St. 6.8% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 2.7 2.3 93.2 0.0%
Eastern Washington 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.7 95.4 0.0%
Northern Arizona 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.9 97.0 0.0%
Sacramento St. 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.7 97.4 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Northern Colorado 18.1% 0.2% 18.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho St. 16.4% 0.7% 16.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho 14.2% 0.6% 14.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana St. 13.0% 2.6% 12.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland St. 13.3% 0.8% 12.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana 8.0% 1.5% 7.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Weber St. 6.8% 1.2% 6.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Washington 4.6% 3.2% 3.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Arizona 3.0% 1.3% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sacramento St. 2.6% 1.4% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 94.7% 0.9 5.3 94.7
2nd Round 3.9% 0.0 96.2 3.9
Sweet Sixteen 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0