Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
149 Portland St. 24.0%   15   10 - 5 7 - 0 +0.7      -3.4 268 +4.0 69 70.2 141 +3.3 116 +12.7 1
157 Montana St. 21.2%   10 - 8 7 - 1 +0.2      +0.4 148 -0.2 172 65.2 279 +0.5 153 +7.0 2
161 Montana 19.1%   9 - 8 6 - 2 0.0      -0.3 173 +0.3 157 72.1 92 -0.5 172 +2.4 3
189 Idaho 10.8%   9 - 8 4 - 3 -1.9      -0.1 165 -1.8 235 66.2 254 -0.8 178 -2.2 4
197 Northern Colorado 6.6%   8 - 10 1 - 7 -2.3      +0.7 143 -3.0 268 70.8 127 -3.5 220 -13.3 10
215 Weber St. 6.9%   8 - 11 4 - 4 -3.3      -0.4 175 -2.9 267 71.9 97 -4.7 234 -3.0 5
225 Idaho St. 5.3%   7 - 11 3 - 5 -3.8      -0.2 168 -3.6 284 63.7 316 -4.1 226 -6.2 7
242 Eastern Washington 4.6%   4 - 15 3 - 4 -4.5      -0.8 189 -3.7 286 70.1 146 -8.1 298 -4.2 6
293 Sacramento St. 1.1%   3 - 13 2 - 5 -7.6      -3.4 270 -4.1 295 76.7 24 -8.6 306 -7.5 8
313 Northern Arizona 0.4%   4 - 14 1 - 7 -8.9      -2.7 244 -6.2 342 63.1 323 -9.5 318 -13.2 9


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Jan 24 157 Montana St. 91 215 Weber St. 88   
Sat, Jan 24 313 Northern Arizona 81 197 Northern Colorado 77   
Sat, Jan 24 189 Idaho 66 149 Portland St. 69   
Sat, Jan 24 225 Idaho St. 60 161 Montana 69   
Sat, Jan 24 242 Eastern Washington 75 293 Sacramento St. 67   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Thu, Jan 29 161 Montana 71 149 Portland St. 74 64%   
Thu, Jan 29 189 Idaho 75 197 Northern Colorado 78 60%   
Thu, Jan 29 242 Eastern Washington 75 313 Northern Arizona 74 56%   
Thu, Jan 29 157 Montana St. 79 293 Sacramento St. 74 68%   
Sat, Jan 31 157 Montana St. 68 149 Portland St. 71 63%   
Sat, Jan 31 225 Idaho St. 74 215 Weber St. 77 63%   
Sat, Jan 31 242 Eastern Washington 77 197 Northern Colorado 82 69%   
Sat, Jan 31 161 Montana 82 293 Sacramento St. 78 67%   
Sat, Jan 31 189 Idaho 74 313 Northern Arizona 70 65%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Portland St. 1.6 62.7 22.7 10.4 3.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Montana St. 2.0 38.3 37.1 17.3 5.3 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
Montana 2.6 18.0 30.2 32.5 12.6 4.4 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
Idaho 4.3 2.5 9.5 19.1 30.0 18.8 10.8 5.6 2.5 1.0 0.2
Northern Colorado 7.2 0.0 0.1 1.1 5.4 10.6 16.1 20.7 23.2 17.2 5.6
Weber St. 5.1 0.6 4.0 10.7 23.0 25.0 17.7 11.3 5.6 2.0 0.3
Idaho St. 6.2 0.1 1.0 4.4 11.8 18.4 20.6 20.4 14.3 7.5 1.6
Eastern Washington 5.9 0.2 1.6 5.8 13.8 19.6 22.2 17.3 11.8 6.3 1.4
Sacramento St. 7.9 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.4 5.0 9.3 15.6 23.0 30.7 12.9
Northern Arizona 9.3 0.0 0.3 0.8 2.0 4.7 9.8 23.9 58.6

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Portland St. 14 - 4 17 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.4 5.6 11.6 17.6 21.2 19.6 13.3 6.3 1.5
Montana St. 13 - 5 16 - 12 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.6 10.6 18.1 22.9 21.4 13.6 6.0 1.2
Montana 12 - 6 15 - 12 0.1 0.3 1.7 5.2 11.8 19.0 22.7 20.2 12.7 5.4 1.0
Idaho 10 - 8 15 - 13 0.1 0.6 2.4 6.5 13.2 18.7 21.2 18.6 11.8 5.2 1.6 0.2
Northern Colorado 7 - 11 14 - 14 0.1 0.7 2.7 7.6 14.8 20.6 22.1 17.7 9.8 3.4 0.6
Weber St. 9 - 9 13 - 16 0.2 1.6 5.5 12.5 19.9 22.6 18.9 11.9 5.1 1.5 0.2
Idaho St. 8 - 10 12 - 16 0.4 2.2 7.3 14.7 20.5 21.8 17.4 10.3 4.3 1.1 0.1
Eastern Washington 8 - 10 9 - 21 0.2 1.6 5.9 12.4 18.7 22.0 18.8 12.3 5.8 1.9 0.4 0.0
Sacramento St. 6 - 12 7 - 20 2.0 7.2 15.7 20.6 21.3 16.7 9.6 4.7 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
Northern Arizona 4 - 14 7 - 21 4.2 14.4 23.9 23.9 18.0 9.8 4.2 1.2 0.3 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Portland St. 62.7% 47.1 13.0 2.4 0.2 0.0
Montana St. 38.3% 23.8 12.0 2.3 0.2 0.0
Montana 18.0% 8.7 7.0 2.1 0.2 0.0
Idaho 2.5% 0.7 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0
Northern Colorado 0.0% 0.0
Weber St. 0.6% 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Idaho St. 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Eastern Washington 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Sacramento St. 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Northern Arizona


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Portland St. 24.0% 24.0% 0.0% 15   0.1 1.6 7.4 10.6 4.1 0.2 76.0 0.0%
Montana St. 21.2% 21.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 4.1 9.3 6.3 0.8 78.8 0.0%
Montana 19.1% 19.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 3.6 7.8 6.1 1.1 80.9 0.0%
Idaho 10.8% 10.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.6 4.9 1.3 89.2 0.0%
Northern Colorado 6.6% 6.6% 0.0% 0.1 0.4 1.5 2.6 2.0 93.4 0.0%
Weber St. 6.9% 6.9% 0.0% 0.1 0.6 2.8 3.4 93.1 0.0%
Idaho St. 5.3% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.9 3.1 94.7 0.0%
Eastern Washington 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 0.1 4.4 95.4 0.0%
Sacramento St. 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 1.1 98.9 0.0%
Northern Arizona 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4 99.6 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 96.0% 1.0 4.0 96.0
2nd Round 2.6% 0.0 97.4 2.6
Sweet Sixteen 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Portland St. 24.0% 0.0% 24.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana St. 21.2% 0.2% 21.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana 19.1% 0.3% 19.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho 10.8% 0.4% 10.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Colorado 6.6% 0.9% 6.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Weber St. 6.9% 1.9% 6.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho St. 5.3% 2.0% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Washington 4.6% 4.1% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sacramento St. 1.1% 1.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Arizona 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%