Sacramento St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.3#280
Expected Predictive Rating-8.4#294
Pace76.5#37
Improvement-0.6#218

Offense
Total Offense-4.1#278
First Shot-6.8#347
After Offensive Rebound+2.7#39
Layup/Dunks-1.5#243
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#199
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.6#351
Freethrows+2.6#51
Improvement-0.9#257

Defense
Total Defense-2.2#245
First Shot-0.7#207
After Offensive Rebounds-1.5#291
Layups/Dunks-1.2#221
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#166
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#217
Freethrows+0.8#132
Improvement+0.3#155
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.6% 4.1% 2.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.3 15.7
.500 or above 5.1% 13.0% 3.8%
.500 or above in Conference 23.7% 34.8% 21.9%
Conference Champion 2.2% 3.8% 2.0%
Last Place in Conference 32.4% 22.6% 34.1%
First Four1.4% 1.5% 1.4%
First Round1.9% 3.5% 1.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: California Baptist (Away) - 14.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 32 - 92 - 14
Quad 46 - 69 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 11 151 UC Santa Barbara L 87-92 35%     0 - 1 -7.4 +6.3 -13.5
  Fri, Nov 14 201 @UC Davis L 73-77 26%     0 - 2 -3.6 -0.4 -3.0
  Sun, Nov 16 260 Presbyterian W 64-62 58%     1 - 2 -6.5 -7.9 +1.5
  Tue, Nov 18 30 @UCLA L 48-79 3%     1 - 3 -14.1 -18.1 +4.3
  Fri, Nov 21 82 @California L 67-91 7%     1 - 4 -13.7 -5.9 -6.2
  Sat, Nov 29 129 @Pacific L 54-68 14%     1 - 5 -8.9 -16.3 +7.6
  Tue, Dec 2 32 @Baylor L 88-110 3%     1 - 6 -5.7 +13.1 -17.2
  Sat, Dec 20 127 @California Baptist L 68-80 14%    
  Mon, Dec 22 222 @Cal St. Northridge L 80-86 30%    
  Thu, Jan 1 162 @Idaho St. L 68-77 20%    
  Sat, Jan 3 214 @Weber St. L 75-81 29%    
  Sat, Jan 10 178 @Portland St. L 70-78 23%    
  Thu, Jan 15 270 Northern Arizona W 75-73 59%    
  Sat, Jan 17 156 Northern Colorado L 76-79 38%    
  Thu, Jan 22 173 @Idaho L 73-81 23%    
  Sat, Jan 24 240 @Eastern Washington L 79-84 33%    
  Thu, Jan 29 174 Montana St. L 72-74 42%    
  Sat, Jan 31 205 Montana L 79-80 49%    
  Mon, Feb 2 214 Weber St. L 77-78 50%    
  Sat, Feb 7 178 Portland St. L 73-75 43%    
  Thu, Feb 12 156 @Northern Colorado L 73-82 20%    
  Sat, Feb 14 270 @Northern Arizona L 72-76 38%    
  Thu, Feb 19 240 Eastern Washington W 82-81 54%    
  Sat, Feb 21 173 Idaho L 76-78 42%    
  Thu, Feb 26 205 @Montana L 77-83 28%    
  Sat, Feb 28 174 @Montana St. L 69-77 23%    
  Mon, Mar 2 162 Idaho St. L 71-74 39%    
Projected Record 8 - 19 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.8 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 4.5 3rd
4th 0.3 2.1 2.8 0.8 0.1 6.0 4th
5th 0.2 2.1 4.0 1.2 0.1 7.6 5th
6th 0.1 2.0 4.9 2.1 0.1 9.2 6th
7th 0.2 2.0 5.9 3.5 0.3 0.0 11.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.8 6.1 4.5 0.5 0.0 14.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.3 4.1 6.7 4.8 0.8 0.0 18.0 9th
10th 0.4 1.9 4.1 6.1 6.2 3.3 0.7 0.0 22.8 10th
Total 0.4 1.9 4.4 7.4 10.7 12.9 13.7 13.5 11.3 8.8 6.2 4.0 2.5 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-3 91.1% 0.2    0.2 0.0
14-4 80.1% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 56.7% 0.8    0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
12-6 23.9% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1
11-7 4.7% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.2% 2.2 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 27.3% 27.3% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.2% 19.6% 19.6% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-4 0.5% 21.2% 21.2% 14.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4
13-5 1.4% 15.2% 15.2% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.2
12-6 2.5% 12.7% 12.7% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 2.2
11-7 4.0% 9.8% 9.8% 15.5 0.2 0.2 3.6
10-8 6.2% 6.4% 6.4% 15.9 0.0 0.4 5.8
9-9 8.8% 4.8% 4.8% 16.0 0.0 0.4 8.4
8-10 11.3% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.3 11.0
7-11 13.5% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.2 13.3
6-12 13.7% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 13.6
5-13 12.9% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 12.9
4-14 10.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 10.7
3-15 7.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 7.4
2-16 4.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.4
1-17 1.9% 1.9
0-18 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.7 97.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%