Montana
Big Sky
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.9#205
Expected Predictive Rating-4.5#238
Pace72.8#91
Improvement-2.6#331

Offense
Total Offense+0.1#165
First Shot+3.2#92
After Offensive Rebound-3.1#342
Layup/Dunks-0.6#197
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#197
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#77
Freethrows+0.7#130
Improvement-1.3#290

Defense
Total Defense-3.0#275
First Shot-2.9#271
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#196
Layups/Dunks-7.7#361
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#289
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.9#19
Freethrows+0.2#164
Improvement-1.3#283
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.0% 12.5% 8.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 13.9 14.9
.500 or above 32.1% 59.3% 31.8%
.500 or above in Conference 54.0% 68.5% 53.8%
Conference Champion 9.0% 19.8% 8.9%
Last Place in Conference 11.1% 6.6% 11.1%
First Four1.5% 0.7% 1.5%
First Round7.4% 12.1% 7.4%
Second Round0.2% 0.7% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.4% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisville (Away) - 0.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 33 - 74 - 11
Quad 49 - 613 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 93 @Stanford L 68-91 14%     0 - 1 -14.4 -5.0 -7.9
  Tue, Nov 11 141 @UNLV W 102-93 24%     1 - 1 +13.4 +17.5 -5.3
  Fri, Nov 14 249 Cal Poly W 90-82 69%     2 - 1 -0.1 +0.9 -2.1
  Tue, Nov 18 49 @Texas A&M L 81-86 7%     2 - 2 +8.8 +14.4 -5.6
  Sun, Nov 23 224 Lamar L 63-68 64%     2 - 3 -11.7 -11.6 +0.1
  Tue, Nov 25 149 Oakland L 87-95 48%     2 - 4 -10.3 +0.5 -10.0
  Wed, Dec 3 144 North Dakota St. L 72-81 47%     2 - 5 -11.1 -1.3 -9.8
  Sat, Dec 6 342 @North Dakota W 79-75 71%     3 - 5 -4.5 +5.1 -9.6
  Sat, Dec 20 10 @Louisville L 71-96 1%    
  Thu, Jan 1 270 Northern Arizona W 78-72 71%    
  Sat, Jan 3 156 Northern Colorado L 78-79 50%    
  Thu, Jan 8 173 @Idaho L 75-80 33%    
  Sat, Jan 10 240 @Eastern Washington L 81-82 45%    
  Sat, Jan 17 174 @Montana St. L 71-76 33%    
  Mon, Jan 19 270 @Northern Arizona L 74-75 50%    
  Thu, Jan 22 214 Weber St. W 80-77 62%    
  Sat, Jan 24 162 Idaho St. W 73-72 50%    
  Thu, Jan 29 178 @Portland St. L 72-77 34%    
  Sat, Jan 31 280 @Sacramento St. W 80-79 51%    
  Thu, Feb 5 240 Eastern Washington W 84-79 66%    
  Sat, Feb 7 173 Idaho W 78-77 54%    
  Sat, Feb 14 174 Montana St. W 74-73 54%    
  Thu, Feb 19 162 @Idaho St. L 70-76 30%    
  Sat, Feb 21 214 @Weber St. L 77-80 41%    
  Thu, Feb 26 280 Sacramento St. W 83-77 72%    
  Sat, Feb 28 178 Portland St. W 75-74 55%    
  Mon, Mar 2 156 @Northern Colorado L 75-81 30%    
Projected Record 12 - 15 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.6 2.3 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 9.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.8 3.9 2.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 10.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.3 4.9 2.0 0.3 0.0 10.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 3.1 5.4 2.2 0.2 0.0 11.2 4th
5th 0.1 2.5 6.2 2.6 0.2 0.0 11.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.8 6.0 3.1 0.4 0.0 11.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.5 4.7 3.8 0.4 10.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.0 3.6 0.6 0.0 9.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.6 3.2 3.0 0.7 0.0 8.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.7 2.1 1.4 0.4 0.0 6.5 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.0 3.9 6.2 8.9 10.9 13.1 13.3 12.1 10.4 7.8 5.2 2.9 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
16-2 98.9% 0.6    0.6 0.0
15-3 93.2% 1.4    1.2 0.2 0.0
14-4 79.1% 2.3    1.6 0.6 0.0
13-5 50.7% 2.6    1.2 1.1 0.3 0.0
12-6 20.8% 1.6    0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
11-7 2.9% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.0% 9.0 5.3 2.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.2% 42.9% 42.9% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.6% 30.5% 30.5% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4
15-3 1.5% 31.2% 31.2% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.0
14-4 2.9% 25.0% 25.0% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 2.2
13-5 5.2% 20.7% 20.7% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 4.1
12-6 7.8% 16.3% 16.3% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.1 6.5
11-7 10.4% 12.0% 12.0% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.2 9.2
10-8 12.1% 8.8% 8.8% 15.3 0.0 0.7 0.3 11.0
9-9 13.3% 6.7% 6.7% 15.9 0.1 0.8 12.4
8-10 13.1% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.0 0.5 12.6
7-11 10.9% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.2 10.8
6-12 8.9% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.2 8.8
5-13 6.2% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 6.1
4-14 3.9% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 3.9
3-15 2.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.0
2-16 0.8% 0.8
1-17 0.2% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 8.0% 8.0% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.7 3.1 2.4 92.0 0.0%