Montana
Big Sky
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.0 #161
Expected Predictive Rating -0.5 #172
Pace 72.1 #92
Improvement +2.6 #68

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #173 B D D C+ B-
Defense #157 C+ C D+ B- C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #135 1.22 #106 +2.3 #103
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #279 0.79 #128 -1.4 #256
Three Pointers 44% #131 1.11 #65 +3.4 #68
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #61 +4.3 #61
Freethrows 0.29 #221 79% #11 0.23 #143
Second Chance 21.8% #354 1.13 #76 0.25 #325
Turnovers 18.6% #314
Total Offense -0.3 #173

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #117 1.23 #276 -2.8 #272
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #78 0.74 #146 -1.1 #270
Three Pointers 35% #329 0.84 #15 +6.0 #8
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #117 +2.1 #117
Freethrows 0.27 #81 71% #130 0.19 #84
Second Chance 29.9% #152 1.10 #271 0.33 #219
Turnovers 14.6% #292
Total Defense +0.3 #157

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.4% #89 -0.5% #124
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 6.9% #72 -3.6% #114
Possession Length 16.8 #123 16.7 #69
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #191 0.18 #225
Improvement -0.9 #224 +3.5 #21

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.1% 22.4% 17.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 13.9 14.4
.500 or above 84.1% 94.5% 78.1%
.500 or above in Conference 98.0% 99.7% 96.9%
Conference Champion 18.0% 34.3% 8.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.3% 0.1% 0.4%
First Round19.0% 22.4% 17.0%
Second Round0.6% 0.8% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Portland St. (Away) - 36.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 11 - 4
Quad 34 - 65 - 9
Quad 412 - 316 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 84 @Stanford L 68 - 91 18% -11  0 - 1 -13 -4 C- C+ F -8 C B- F
 Tue, Nov 11 125 @UNLV W 102 - 93 31% +6  1 - 1 +14 +18 A+ C+ B -5 D+ B+ F+
 Fri, Nov 14 288 Cal Poly W 90 - 82 83% +7  2 - 1 -2 -0 D C C -3 C C D
 Tue, Nov 18 30 @Texas A&M L 81 - 86 6% -10  2 - 2 +13 +16 A+ F+ C+ -4 F A+ C
 Sun, Nov 23 207 Lamar L 63 - 68 71% -0  2 - 3 -11 -14 F F F +3 A+ F C+
 Tue, Nov 25 135 Oakland L 87 - 95 56% -4  2 - 4 -10 +0 B- B+ F -9 F+ A+ C-
 Wed, Dec 3 134 North Dakota St. L 72 - 81 56% -3  2 - 5 -10 -2 C+ D C -9 B+ F D+
 Sat, Dec 6 290 @North Dakota W 79 - 75 66% -1  3 - 5 -0 +3 B- B+ F -4 B- F D+
 Sat, Dec 20 18 @Louisville L 54 - 94 4% -17  3 - 6 -20 -14 F+ F F -3 B- F B+
 Thu, Jan 1 313 Northern Arizona W 78 - 64 87% +4  4 - 6 1 - 0 +2 +3 A- F D- +0 B D- B
 Sat, Jan 3 197 Northern Colorado W 88 - 79 69% +9  5 - 6 2 - 0 +4 +3 C+ F D -0 A+ D+ F+
 Thu, Jan 8 189 @Idaho W 79 - 73 46% +9  6 - 6 3 - 0 +7 +6 B D- F +1 A+ F+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 242 @Eastern Washington L 65 - 66 56% +2  6 - 7 3 - 1 -2 -3 D- F+ D+ +1 C B- F+
 Sat, Jan 17 157 @Montana St. L 67 - 76 38% -0  6 - 8 3 - 2 -6 -5 B F F -0 B- C+ D+
 Mon, Jan 19 313 @Northern Arizona W 98 - 72 72% +12  7 - 8 4 - 2 +20 +34 A+ A+ A+ -10 F A- F
 Thu, Jan 22 215 Weber St. W 81 - 65 73% +2  8 - 8 5 - 2 +10 +11 A+ C+ F +0 D- A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 24 225 Idaho St. W 69 - 60 74% +8  9 - 8 6 - 2 +2 -6 C+ F C- +9 A+ C- B
 Thu, Jan 29 149 @Portland St. L 70 - 74 36%
 Sat, Jan 31 293 @Sacramento St. W 83 - 78 66%
 Thu, Feb 5 242 Eastern Washington W 81 - 74 76%
 Sat, Feb 7 189 Idaho W 77 - 72 68%
 Sat, Feb 14 157 Montana St. W 75 - 72 60%
 Thu, Feb 19 225 @Idaho St. W 75 - 74 53%
 Sat, Feb 21 215 @Weber St. W 79 - 78 51%
 Thu, Feb 26 293 Sacramento St. W 86 - 75 83%
 Sat, Feb 28 149 Portland St. W 73 - 71 58%
 Mon, Mar 2 197 @Northern Colorado L 78 - 79 47%
Totals 15 - 12 12 - 6 +0 +0 B D D +0 C+ C D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 4.2 7.2 4.8 1.0 18.0 1st
2nd 0.2 2.7 9.4 12.1 5.3 0.6 30.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 4.2 11.9 11.8 3.9 0.2 32.5 3rd
4th 0.1 2.0 5.8 4.1 0.7 0.0 12.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.2 1.5 0.2 0.0 4.4 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 0.7 0.1 1.7 6th
7th 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.1 0.3 1.7 5.2 11.8 19.0 22.7 20.2 12.7 5.4 1.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 1.0    1.0 0.0
15-3 89.5% 4.8    3.4 1.4 0.0
14-4 56.5% 7.2    3.4 3.3 0.5
13-5 21.0% 4.2    1.0 2.1 1.1 0.1
12-6 3.4% 0.8    0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 18.0% 18.0 8.7 7.0 2.1 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 1.0% 38.6% 38.6% 12.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6
15-3 5.4% 35.9% 35.9% 13.3 0.2 1.1 0.7 0.0 3.4
14-4 12.7% 27.9% 27.9% 13.7 0.1 1.3 1.8 0.4 0.0 9.1
13-5 20.2% 22.5% 22.5% 14.1 0.0 0.8 2.6 1.1 0.0 15.6
12-6 22.7% 17.3% 17.3% 14.3 0.0 0.3 2.0 1.5 0.1 18.8
11-7 19.0% 15.1% 15.1% 14.8 0.0 0.7 2.0 0.2 16.1
10-8 11.8% 11.2% 11.2% 15.2 0.0 1.0 0.3 10.5
9-9 5.2% 8.8% 8.8% 15.8 0.1 0.4 4.8
8-10 1.7% 5.9% 5.9% 16.0 0.1 1.6
7-11 0.3% 4.8% 4.8% 16.0 0.0 0.3
6-12 0.1% 0.1
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 19.1% 19.1% 0.0% 14.2 80.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 12.3 5.0 60.0 32.5 2.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%