Weber St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.3 #215
Expected Predictive Rating -4.7 #234
Pace 71.9 #97
Improvement -1.9 #276

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #175 C C C B- B+
Defense #267 C D+ C C- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% #11 1.11 #241 +4.0 #56
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #319 0.54 #361 -4.0 #347
Three Pointers 39% #225 1.08 #90 +0.1 #173
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #174 +0.0 #174
Freethrows 0.35 #52 70% #271 0.24 #103
Second Chance 31.6% #153 0.99 #244 0.31 #186
Turnovers 16.3% #174
Total Offense -0.4 #175

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #91 1.27 #314 -4.4 #323
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #260 0.76 #168 +1.1 #115
Three Pointers 40% #212 0.92 #68 +2.4 #97
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #207 -0.9 #210
Freethrows 0.32 #258 73% #205 0.23 #260
Second Chance 30.8% #190 1.20 #336 0.37 #297
Turnovers 15.9% #213
Total Defense -2.9 #267

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 3.0% #22 1.2% #280
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -2.9% #223 0.8% #199
Possession Length 17.0 #135 17.2 #151
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 #78 0.17 #171
Improvement -0.3 #192 -1.7 #283

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.9% 8.1% 4.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.3 15.6
.500 or above 24.0% 31.6% 10.9%
.500 or above in Conference 60.2% 71.7% 40.5%
Conference Champion 0.6% 1.0% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 1.2% 0.4% 2.5%
First Four1.9% 1.7% 2.1%
First Round6.2% 7.5% 3.9%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Idaho St. (Home) - 63.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 40 - 5
Quad 32 - 73 - 12
Quad 411 - 514 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 104 @Utah L 89 - 92 OT 15% +3  0 - 1 +5 +1 D- A- D +4 A+ F C
 Wed, Nov 12 40 @Utah St. L 73 - 83 5% -4  0 - 2 +6 +6 F+ A+ B+ +0 A+ C F
 Sat, Nov 15 119 @UC Irvine L 70 - 79 19% -8  0 - 3 -3 -2 D- D+ C -0 C- B+ C
 Wed, Nov 19 206 Campbell W 91 - 85 60% +5  1 - 3 +0 +9 B+ C C -9 B F C
 Sat, Nov 22 158 Texas Arlington L 73 - 74 48% -0  1 - 4 -4 +6 B- A- C -10 D- C- D
 Sat, Nov 29 354 UMKC W 82 - 61 89% +10  2 - 4 +4 +4 A+ F+ F +1 D+ A C
 Wed, Dec 3 332 Oral Roberts W 92 - 66 83% +17  3 - 4 +12 +8 A D B+ +3 C- A+ B-
 Sun, Dec 7 127 @St. Thomas L 65 - 88 22% -18  3 - 5 -18 -6 D- D+ F -12 D- F C-
 Wed, Dec 10 354 @UMKC W 64 - 60 76% +3  4 - 5 -7 -16 F C- F +9 A C- B
 Wed, Dec 17 109 @Utah Valley L 74 - 90 17% -9  4 - 6 -9 +11 D+ B+ A+ -21 F F C
 Sat, Dec 20 223 Utah Tech L 80 - 82 63% -1  4 - 7 -9 +8 A+ F C- -16 F A D-
 Thu, Jan 1 149 Portland St. L 90 - 95 OT 46% -0  4 - 8 0 - 1 -7 +4 C- C- A+ -11 C D+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 293 Sacramento St. W 95 - 82 76% +10  5 - 8 1 - 1 +2 +8 C+ B- C -6 F A- A-
 Thu, Jan 8 313 @Northern Arizona W 78 - 65 60% +5  6 - 8 2 - 1 +7 +10 C B- A+ -1 B D- F+
 Sat, Jan 10 197 @Northern Colorado W 76 - 71 35% +1  7 - 8 3 - 1 +6 +6 B- D C- +0 A D- C
 Thu, Jan 15 242 Eastern Washington W 91 - 80 66% +1  8 - 8 4 - 1 +4 +7 C C+ C -4 B- F B-
 Sat, Jan 17 189 Idaho L 67 - 75 56% -9  8 - 9 4 - 2 -13 -15 F B+ F +3 B D A
 Thu, Jan 22 161 @Montana L 65 - 81 27% -2  8 - 10 4 - 3 -13 -1 A- F D -14 F F A-
 Sat, Jan 24 157 @Montana St. L 88 - 91 27% -2  8 - 11 4 - 4 +0 +16 A+ D- A- -16 F D- B-
 Sat, Jan 31 225 Idaho St. W 78 - 74 63%
 Mon, Feb 2 293 @Sacramento St. W 82 - 81 55%
 Thu, Feb 5 197 Northern Colorado W 81 - 79 57%
 Sat, Feb 7 313 Northern Arizona W 80 - 71 79%
 Thu, Feb 12 189 @Idaho L 74 - 78 34%
 Sat, Feb 14 242 @Eastern Washington L 78 - 80 43%
 Thu, Feb 19 157 Montana St. L 75 - 76 48%
 Sat, Feb 21 161 Montana L 78 - 79 49%
 Sat, Feb 28 225 @Idaho St. L 75 - 77 41%
 Mon, Mar 2 149 @Portland St. L 70 - 77 26%
Totals 13 - 16 9 - 9 -3 +0 C C C -3 C D+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.6 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 1.9 0.9 0.0 4.0 2nd
3rd 0.3 2.6 5.0 2.5 0.2 10.7 3rd
4th 0.5 5.9 10.6 5.3 0.6 0.0 23.0 4th
5th 0.4 6.4 12.3 5.3 0.5 0.0 25.0 5th
6th 0.2 3.8 9.6 3.8 0.3 17.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.7 6.0 3.3 0.2 11.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.7 2.2 0.2 0.0 5.6 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 0.8 0.1 2.0 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 10th
Total 0.2 1.6 5.5 12.5 19.9 22.6 18.9 11.9 5.1 1.5 0.2 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 84.6% 0.2    0.1 0.1
13-5 22.2% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.8% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.2% 28.2% 28.2% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 1.5% 17.4% 17.4% 14.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 1.2
12-6 5.1% 16.5% 16.5% 14.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 4.3
11-7 11.9% 11.9% 11.9% 15.1 0.1 1.2 0.2 10.5
10-8 18.9% 8.7% 8.7% 15.3 0.0 1.0 0.6 17.3
9-9 22.6% 6.1% 6.1% 15.9 0.1 1.3 21.2
8-10 19.9% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.0 0.9 19.0
7-11 12.5% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.3 12.3
6-12 5.5% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 5.4
5-13 1.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.6
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 6.9% 6.9% 0.0% 15.4 93.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%