Northern Colorado
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.3 #197
Expected Predictive Rating -3.5 #220
Pace 70.8 #127
Improvement -4.5 #341

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #143 B- C- C- D C
Defense #268 C C F+ D C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #229 1.25 #84 +0.6 #156
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #213 0.79 #130 -0.4 #195
Three Pointers 45% #104 1.09 #76 +3.7 #61
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #71 +3.9 #71
Freethrows 0.24 #332 74% #129 0.18 #314
Second Chance 28.5% #245 1.06 #158 0.30 #211
Turnovers 17.2% #236
Total Offense +0.7 #143

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #36 1.19 #222 -4.1 #312
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #174 0.81 #273 -0.5 #221
Three Pointers 35% #332 0.90 #48 +5.0 #19
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #168 +0.4 #167
Freethrows 0.34 #298 75% #309 0.25 #310
Second Chance 26.6% #51 1.19 #335 0.32 #179
Turnovers 12.4% #352
Total Defense -3.0 #268

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.3% #177 0.8% #242
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 7.2% #68 -1.5% #155
Possession Length 17.5 #186 17.2 #162
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 #343 0.15 #99
Improvement -1.2 #245 -3.3 #338

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.6% 7.6% 5.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.7 15.3
.500 or above 48.7% 60.6% 31.1%
.500 or above in Conference 13.8% 20.1% 4.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 12.2% 7.2% 19.6%
First Four0.9% 0.7% 1.3%
First Round6.3% 7.4% 4.6%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Idaho (Home) - 59.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 2
Quad 33 - 74 - 9
Quad 410 - 715 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 15 280 @Pepperdine W 88 - 81 OT 56% +5  1 - 0 +3 +2 C+ C F -0 B- B+ F
 Fri, Nov 21 127 St. Thomas L 72 - 73 34% +5  1 - 1 +1 -3 C B F +4 A+ F C
 Sat, Nov 22 204 @Portland W 86 - 80 OT 40% +2  2 - 1 +6 +3 C C B+ +3 A- F D+
 Sun, Nov 23 216 Cal St. Fullerton W 97 - 93 54% +4  3 - 1 +1 +10 C C+ A+ -10 C+ B- F
 Wed, Nov 26 347 @Air Force W 71 - 53 74% +5  4 - 1 +9 +7 A F C+ +5 B+ C- F+
 Wed, Dec 3 250 @Nebraska Omaha W 75 - 70 49% +1  5 - 1 +3 +5 B F C -2 B F+ D-
 Sat, Dec 6 287 South Dakota W 89 - 87 OT 78% +2  6 - 1 -8 +1 A D- D- -10 D C C-
 Tue, Dec 16 15 @Texas Tech L 90 - 101 2% -7  6 - 2 +10 +27 A+ A+ B -17 F A+ F
 Sat, Dec 20 284 Denver L 79 - 86 78% +2  6 - 3 -17 -7 D D- C -10 D- A+ D+
 Sun, Dec 28 82 @Colorado W 86 - 81 13% +2  7 - 3 +15 +12 A+ C D +3 A+ B- F
 Thu, Jan 1 157 @Montana St. L 75 - 89 30% -6  7 - 4 0 - 1 -11 +2 C A- F+ -12 C- F F
 Sat, Jan 3 161 @Montana L 79 - 88 31% -9  7 - 5 0 - 2 -6 +1 F+ C+ B- -7 C+ B+ F+
 Thu, Jan 8 225 Idaho St. W 85 - 72 67% +11  8 - 5 1 - 2 +6 +14 A+ D- B+ -6 B+ C D
 Sat, Jan 10 215 Weber St. L 71 - 76 65% -1  8 - 6 1 - 3 -11 -3 D- C C- -9 D+ B D-
 Thu, Jan 15 149 @Portland St. L 73 - 76 28% +1  8 - 7 1 - 4 +1 +4 A+ F D+ -3 C F A
 Sat, Jan 17 293 @Sacramento St. L 89 - 93 OT 59% +7  8 - 8 1 - 5 -9 +2 B- F+ C- -10 F+ C F
 Mon, Jan 19 157 Montana St. L 68 - 73 52% -4  8 - 9 1 - 6 -8 -2 C- B+ D- -6 C- A+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 313 @Northern Arizona L 77 - 81 64% -2  8 - 10 1 - 7 -10 +9 A B F -20 F F F+
 Thu, Jan 29 189 Idaho W 78 - 75 60%
 Sat, Jan 31 242 Eastern Washington W 82 - 77 69%
 Thu, Feb 5 215 @Weber St. L 79 - 81 43%
 Sat, Feb 7 225 @Idaho St. L 75 - 76 44%
 Thu, Feb 12 293 Sacramento St. W 86 - 78 78%
 Sat, Feb 14 149 Portland St. W 74 - 73 50%
 Sat, Feb 21 313 Northern Arizona W 80 - 70 82%
 Thu, Feb 26 242 @Eastern Washington L 79 - 80 47%
 Sat, Feb 28 189 @Idaho L 75 - 78 37%
 Mon, Mar 2 161 Montana W 79 - 78 53%
Totals 14 - 14 7 - 11 -2 +1 B- C- C- -3 C C F+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.3 1.1 3rd
4th 0.4 2.7 2.0 0.2 5.4 4th
5th 0.4 4.5 5.0 0.7 0.0 10.6 5th
6th 0.4 5.0 8.7 1.9 0.0 16.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 5.2 11.2 3.8 0.1 20.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 5.8 11.1 5.1 0.3 23.2 8th
9th 0.1 1.1 4.5 7.5 3.7 0.4 0.0 17.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 1.6 2.2 1.0 0.1 0.0 5.6 10th
Total 0.1 0.7 2.7 7.6 14.8 20.6 22.1 17.7 9.8 3.4 0.6 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.8% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.6% 24.6% 24.6% 12.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5
10-8 3.4% 18.9% 18.9% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 2.7
9-9 9.8% 13.3% 13.3% 14.3 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.0 8.5
8-10 17.7% 8.0% 8.0% 14.8 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.1 16.3
7-11 22.1% 6.0% 6.0% 15.3 0.0 0.8 0.5 20.7
6-12 20.6% 4.9% 4.9% 15.7 0.0 0.3 0.7 19.6
5-13 14.8% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.0 0.5 14.3
4-14 7.6% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.2 7.4
3-15 2.7% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.1 2.7
2-16 0.7% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.7
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18
Total 100% 6.6% 6.6% 0.0% 14.9 93.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 12.7 38.7 48.4 12.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%