Northern Colorado
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.2#156
Expected Predictive Rating+6.0#97
Pace70.8#152
Improvement-0.8#231

Offense
Total Offense+0.5#150
First Shot+1.7#128
After Offensive Rebound-1.2#256
Layup/Dunks+0.3#165
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#168
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#134
Freethrows-0.1#188
Improvement-0.2#204

Defense
Total Defense-0.4#175
First Shot+0.6#148
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#255
Layups/Dunks-4.9#328
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#287
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.9#10
Freethrows+0.0#186
Improvement-0.5#231
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.1% 27.2% 17.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 12.9 13.8
.500 or above 90.1% 98.8% 89.6%
.500 or above in Conference 79.2% 89.8% 78.7%
Conference Champion 25.8% 42.8% 24.9%
Last Place in Conference 3.3% 0.7% 3.4%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round18.0% 27.2% 17.6%
Second Round1.0% 1.8% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas Tech (Away) - 4.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 35 - 55 - 8
Quad 414 - 319 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 15 293 @Pepperdine W 88-81 OT 67%     1 - 0 +2.7 +2.1 -0.5
  Fri, Nov 21 136 St. Thomas L 72-73 45%     1 - 1 +0.6 -3.1 +3.7
  Sat, Nov 22 269 @Portland W 86-80 OT 61%     2 - 1 +3.3 +0.6 +1.8
  Sun, Nov 23 272 Cal St. Fullerton W 97-93 72%     3 - 1 -1.8 +8.4 -10.8
  Wed, Nov 26 324 @Air Force W 71-53 74%     4 - 1 +11.3 +7.2 +6.7
  Wed, Dec 3 235 @Nebraska Omaha W 75-70 55%     5 - 1 +3.9 +4.3 -0.2
  Sat, Dec 6 278 South Dakota W 89-87 OT 81%     6 - 1 -7.2 +2.0 -9.3
  Tue, Dec 16 24 @Texas Tech L 66-84 5%    
  Sat, Dec 20 314 Denver W 86-74 87%    
  Sun, Dec 28 62 @Colorado L 73-85 14%    
  Thu, Jan 1 174 @Montana St. L 71-73 43%    
  Sat, Jan 3 205 @Montana W 79-78 50%    
  Thu, Jan 8 162 Idaho St. W 72-69 62%    
  Sat, Jan 10 214 Weber St. W 79-73 73%    
  Thu, Jan 15 178 @Portland St. L 71-73 44%    
  Sat, Jan 17 280 @Sacramento St. W 79-76 62%    
  Mon, Jan 19 174 Montana St. W 74-70 65%    
  Sat, Jan 24 270 @Northern Arizona W 74-71 60%    
  Thu, Jan 29 173 Idaho W 77-73 65%    
  Sat, Jan 31 240 Eastern Washington W 84-76 75%    
  Thu, Feb 5 214 @Weber St. W 77-76 52%    
  Sat, Feb 7 162 @Idaho St. L 69-72 40%    
  Thu, Feb 12 280 Sacramento St. W 82-73 80%    
  Sat, Feb 14 178 Portland St. W 74-70 66%    
  Sat, Feb 21 270 Northern Arizona W 77-68 79%    
  Thu, Feb 26 240 @Eastern Washington W 81-79 56%    
  Sat, Feb 28 173 @Idaho L 74-76 44%    
  Mon, Mar 2 205 Montana W 81-75 70%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.9 6.1 6.7 5.4 2.9 1.1 0.2 25.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 4.0 6.8 4.6 1.7 0.4 0.0 18.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.5 6.0 3.2 0.6 0.0 13.8 3rd
4th 0.2 2.6 5.6 2.5 0.3 0.0 11.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 4.8 2.5 0.2 0.0 9.3 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 3.5 2.6 0.3 0.0 7.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.4 2.5 0.3 0.0 5.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.6 1.8 0.4 0.0 4.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.7 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.9 3.5 5.6 8.2 10.6 12.3 13.3 13.3 11.3 8.4 5.7 2.9 1.1 0.2 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 1.1    1.1 0.0
16-2 99.9% 2.9    2.8 0.1
15-3 93.5% 5.4    4.6 0.7 0.0
14-4 79.6% 6.7    4.7 1.8 0.2 0.0
13-5 54.0% 6.1    2.9 2.5 0.6 0.0
12-6 21.9% 2.9    0.7 1.3 0.8 0.2 0.0
11-7 3.5% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 25.8% 25.8 17.1 6.5 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 55.9% 55.9% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
17-1 1.1% 44.0% 44.0% 12.4 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6
16-2 2.9% 45.1% 45.1% 12.7 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.6
15-3 5.7% 39.4% 39.4% 13.0 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.6 0.0 3.5
14-4 8.4% 31.6% 31.6% 13.3 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.0 0.1 5.7
13-5 11.3% 25.8% 25.8% 13.6 0.2 1.1 1.4 0.3 8.4
12-6 13.3% 20.0% 20.0% 13.9 0.1 0.6 1.4 0.5 0.0 10.7
11-7 13.3% 15.9% 15.9% 14.1 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.6 0.0 11.2
10-8 12.3% 13.0% 13.0% 14.5 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.1 10.7
9-9 10.6% 10.4% 10.4% 14.8 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.1 9.5
8-10 8.2% 5.4% 5.4% 15.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 7.7
7-11 5.6% 4.6% 4.6% 15.5 0.1 0.1 5.4
6-12 3.5% 2.2% 2.2% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.4
5-13 1.9% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.1 1.9
4-14 0.9% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 0.9
3-15 0.4% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.4
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 18.1% 18.1% 0.0% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.0 5.2 6.6 3.4 0.7 81.9 0.0%