Portland St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.3#178
Expected Predictive Rating-1.6#191
Pace70.2#168
Improvement-1.0#250

Offense
Total Offense-3.6#259
First Shot-2.0#228
After Offensive Rebound-1.7#282
Layup/Dunks+0.8#139
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#337
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#128
Freethrows-1.2#258
Improvement-2.6#347

Defense
Total Defense+2.4#99
First Shot+5.0#43
After Offensive Rebounds-2.6#324
Layups/Dunks-0.1#175
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#13
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#70
Freethrows-0.6#221
Improvement+1.6#65
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.3% 19.5% 12.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 13.6 14.4
.500 or above 58.0% 80.7% 55.1%
.500 or above in Conference 68.0% 80.5% 66.4%
Conference Champion 17.2% 26.7% 16.0%
Last Place in Conference 6.2% 2.5% 6.6%
First Four0.8% 0.2% 0.8%
First Round12.9% 19.4% 12.0%
Second Round0.6% 1.0% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Colorado (Away) - 11.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 34 - 54 - 9
Quad 410 - 415 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 93 @Stanford L 79-89 18%     0 - 1 -1.4 +0.0 -0.1
  Wed, Nov 12 96 @San Francisco L 70-80 18%     0 - 2 -1.6 +2.7 -4.5
  Mon, Nov 17 312 Cal St. Bakersfield W 93-80 84%     1 - 2 +1.3 +9.7 -9.2
  Tue, Nov 25 262 @Utah Tech W 68-63 55%     2 - 2 +2.5 -6.0 +8.4
  Wed, Dec 3 278 @South Dakota W 77-71 58%     3 - 2 +2.8 -6.4 +8.7
  Sat, Dec 6 235 Nebraska Omaha L 55-60 71%     3 - 3 -12.1 -11.3 -1.9
  Wed, Dec 17 62 @Colorado L 68-81 11%    
  Sat, Dec 20 207 @Tulane L 72-73 45%    
  Thu, Jan 1 214 @Weber St. L 72-73 46%    
  Sat, Jan 3 162 @Idaho St. L 65-69 35%    
  Sat, Jan 10 280 Sacramento St. W 78-70 77%    
  Thu, Jan 15 156 Northern Colorado W 73-71 56%    
  Sat, Jan 17 270 Northern Arizona W 73-65 76%    
  Thu, Jan 22 240 @Eastern Washington W 76-75 52%    
  Sat, Jan 24 173 @Idaho L 70-73 39%    
  Thu, Jan 29 205 Montana W 77-72 66%    
  Sat, Jan 31 174 Montana St. W 69-66 60%    
  Mon, Feb 2 162 Idaho St. W 68-66 57%    
  Sat, Feb 7 280 @Sacramento St. W 75-73 57%    
  Thu, Feb 12 270 @Northern Arizona W 70-68 55%    
  Sat, Feb 14 156 @Northern Colorado L 70-74 34%    
  Thu, Feb 19 173 Idaho W 73-70 60%    
  Sat, Feb 21 240 Eastern Washington W 79-73 71%    
  Thu, Feb 26 174 @Montana St. L 66-69 39%    
  Sat, Feb 28 205 @Montana L 74-75 45%    
  Mon, Mar 2 214 Weber St. W 75-70 67%    
Projected Record 13 - 13 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.4 4.3 4.5 3.3 1.6 0.6 0.1 17.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.6 5.4 3.7 1.3 0.2 0.0 14.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.7 5.6 2.8 0.5 0.0 13.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.9 5.8 2.4 0.3 0.0 11.6 4th
5th 0.1 2.2 5.3 2.5 0.3 10.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 4.7 2.8 0.3 0.0 9.2 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 3.6 3.0 0.4 8.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.8 2.6 0.5 0.0 6.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.9 1.9 0.5 0.0 5.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.0 3.5 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.0 3.6 6.1 8.2 10.7 11.9 12.9 12.3 10.9 8.6 5.8 3.4 1.6 0.6 0.1 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6 0.0
16-2 98.7% 1.6    1.5 0.1
15-3 95.1% 3.3    2.9 0.4 0.0
14-4 77.5% 4.5    3.1 1.3 0.1
13-5 50.7% 4.3    2.1 1.7 0.5 0.0
12-6 21.8% 2.4    0.5 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0
11-7 3.6% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 17.2% 17.2 10.8 4.6 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 42.5% 42.5% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 0.6% 43.9% 43.9% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
16-2 1.6% 41.5% 41.5% 12.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9
15-3 3.4% 34.0% 34.0% 13.4 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 2.3
14-4 5.8% 30.9% 30.9% 13.8 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.3 0.0 4.0
13-5 8.6% 25.4% 25.4% 14.1 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.6 0.0 6.4
12-6 10.9% 19.7% 19.7% 14.3 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.8 0.1 8.7
11-7 12.3% 14.0% 14.0% 14.6 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.1 10.6
10-8 12.9% 11.9% 11.9% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.4 11.4
9-9 11.9% 8.1% 8.1% 15.4 0.0 0.5 0.5 10.9
8-10 10.7% 4.0% 4.0% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 10.2
7-11 8.2% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2 8.0
6-12 6.1% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.1 6.0
5-13 3.6% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 3.6
4-14 2.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.0
3-15 1.0% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 1.0
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 13.3% 13.3% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.3 4.3 4.3 1.7 86.8 0.0%