Northern Arizona
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -8.9 #313
Expected Predictive Rating -9.5 #318
Pace 63.1 #323
Improvement -3.8 #324

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #244 C D C- D- C-
Defense #342 D D+ C C+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #170 1.14 #198 -0.3 #190
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #83 0.69 #279 +1.1 #119
Three Pointers 36% #293 1.11 #56 -0.9 #217
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #179 -0.1 #179
Freethrows 0.26 #312 66% #348 0.17 #340
Second Chance 24.3% #333 0.98 #269 0.24 #337
Turnovers 17.1% #229
Total Offense -2.7 #244

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #154 1.16 #183 -0.8 #206
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #287 0.79 #233 +1.1 #112
Three Pointers 43% #112 1.19 #353 -4.8 #341
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #314 -4.5 #314
Freethrows 0.28 #101 74% #245 0.20 #127
Second Chance 34.2% #314 1.08 #237 0.37 #295
Turnovers 16.3% #190
Total Defense -6.2 #342

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.2% #265 1.1% #269
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 0.9% #158 7.7% #316
Possession Length 19.0 #334 17.4 #187
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #313 0.15 #118
Improvement +1.6 #98 -5.4 #362

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.4% 0.8% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 74.9% 63.4% 84.1%
First Four0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
First Round0.2% 0.4% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Washington (Home) - 44.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 101 - 13
Quad 46 - 97 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 148 Drake L 71 - 77 18% -0  0 - 1 -5 +0 C- F+ A+ -6 D A+ C
 Tue, Nov 11 2 @Arizona L 49 - 84 0% -24  0 - 2 -8 -11 D+ D- F +4 C+ C- A
 Mon, Nov 24 288 Cal Poly W 93 - 87 56% +0  1 - 2 -4 +4 B C C -9 F B C
 Wed, Nov 26 245 Southeast Missouri St. W 79 - 72 45% +7  2 - 2 -1 +5 C- A+ B- -5 B- C F+
 Wed, Dec 3 171 South Dakota St. L 62 - 75 31% -6  2 - 3 -17 -12 F+ D- D- -5 B+ D+ C-
 Sat, Dec 6 134 @North Dakota St. L 68 - 69 11% -1  2 - 4 +4 -4 C D C +7 B C+ A+
 Tue, Dec 9 80 @Arizona St. L 48 - 73 5% -12  2 - 5 -15 -18 F F C +2 C+ B- A
 Sat, Dec 13 212 @San Diego L 69 - 78 20% -6  2 - 6 -9 -1 C+ C- F -9 D- F B+
 Thu, Dec 18 282 Southern Utah W 65 - 57 54% +0  3 - 6 -2 -7 D- D+ C+ +5 C+ A A-
 Sun, Dec 21 240 @Incarnate Word L 66 - 90 24% -10  3 - 7 -25 -5 B+ F F+ -21 F F+ F+
 Thu, Jan 1 161 @Montana L 64 - 78 13% -4  3 - 8 0 - 1 -11 -2 C- C F -10 F B- C+
 Sat, Jan 3 157 @Montana St. L 68 - 77 13% -7  3 - 9 0 - 2 -6 +4 B+ D- B -11 D- D D
 Thu, Jan 8 215 Weber St. L 65 - 78 40% -5  3 - 10 0 - 3 -19 -5 D- D+ B+ -16 D+ F+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 225 Idaho St. L 79 - 81 42% -2  3 - 11 0 - 4 -9 +8 D+ A+ D+ -17 F F A-
 Thu, Jan 15 293 @Sacramento St. L 69 - 83 34% -1  3 - 12 0 - 5 -19 -3 C F F+ -17 F+ F F
 Sat, Jan 17 149 @Portland St. L 52 - 63 12% -5  3 - 13 0 - 6 -7 -8 C F D- -1 B- D C
 Mon, Jan 19 161 Montana L 72 - 98 28% -12  3 - 14 0 - 7 -29 +8 A+ F B+ -40 F F F
 Sat, Jan 24 197 Northern Colorado W 81 - 77 36% +2  4 - 14 1 - 7 -1 +14 A+ B C -15 F F A+
 Thu, Jan 29 242 Eastern Washington L 74 - 75 44%
 Sat, Jan 31 189 Idaho L 70 - 74 34%
 Thu, Feb 5 225 @Idaho St. L 67 - 75 22%
 Sat, Feb 7 215 @Weber St. L 71 - 80 21%
 Thu, Feb 12 149 Portland St. L 66 - 73 27%
 Sat, Feb 14 293 Sacramento St. W 78 - 76 56%
 Sat, Feb 21 197 @Northern Colorado L 70 - 80 18%
 Thu, Feb 26 189 @Idaho L 67 - 77 17%
 Sat, Feb 28 242 @Eastern Washington L 71 - 78 24%
 Mon, Mar 2 157 Montana St. L 68 - 74 28%
Totals 7 - 21 4 - 14 -9 -3 C D C- -6 D D+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 4th
5th 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.8 5th
6th 0.2 1.3 0.5 0.0 2.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.2 1.9 0.2 4.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 3.8 4.5 0.8 0.0 9.8 8th
9th 0.2 2.9 8.5 9.6 2.7 0.0 23.9 9th
10th 4.2 14.2 21.0 14.7 4.3 0.2 58.6 10th
Total 4.2 14.4 23.9 23.9 18.0 9.8 4.2 1.2 0.3 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0% 0.0
9-9 0.3% 6.0% 6.0% 16.0 0.0 0.3
8-10 1.2% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.0 1.2
7-11 4.2% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 4.2
6-12 9.8% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 9.7
5-13 18.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 17.9
4-14 23.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 23.8
3-15 23.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 23.8
2-16 14.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.4
1-17 4.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.2
0-18
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 16.0 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.0%