Northern Arizona
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.8#270
Expected Predictive Rating-6.5#262
Pace66.6#260
Improvement-2.0#309

Offense
Total Offense-3.6#257
First Shot-1.7#224
After Offensive Rebound-1.9#299
Layup/Dunks+3.1#77
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#94
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#266
Freethrows-3.7#345
Improvement-1.7#304

Defense
Total Defense-2.2#246
First Shot-3.1#279
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#129
Layups/Dunks-3.4#296
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#142
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#243
Freethrows+1.2#106
Improvement-0.3#205
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.0% 3.4% 1.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.5 15.7
.500 or above 9.4% 11.6% 3.5%
.500 or above in Conference 27.1% 29.9% 19.3%
Conference Champion 2.6% 3.1% 1.4%
Last Place in Conference 28.2% 25.6% 35.5%
First Four1.3% 1.4% 1.2%
First Round2.4% 2.8% 1.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Utah (Home) - 73.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 32 - 92 - 13
Quad 48 - 710 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 135 Drake L 71-77 24%     0 - 1 -4.3 -1.3 -3.1
  Tue, Nov 11 3 @Arizona L 49-84 1%     0 - 2 -9.5 -12.2 +3.2
  Mon, Nov 24 249 Cal Poly W 93-87 59%     1 - 2 -2.1 +5.0 -7.8
  Wed, Nov 26 217 Southeast Missouri St. W 79-72 52%     2 - 2 +0.6 +4.7 -4.0
  Wed, Dec 3 158 South Dakota St. L 62-75 39%     2 - 3 -15.9 -9.8 -6.4
  Sat, Dec 6 144 @North Dakota St. L 68-69 18%     2 - 4 +2.9 -3.1 +6.1
  Tue, Dec 9 61 @Arizona St. L 48-73 6%     2 - 5 -12.9 -16.3 +1.6
  Sat, Dec 13 246 @San Diego L 69-78 35%     2 - 6 -10.8 -2.2 -9.1
  Thu, Dec 18 318 Southern Utah W 76-70 73%    
  Sat, Dec 20 189 @Incarnate Word L 67-74 25%    
  Thu, Jan 1 205 @Montana L 72-78 29%    
  Sat, Jan 3 174 @Montana St. L 64-72 23%    
  Thu, Jan 8 214 Weber St. W 73-72 52%    
  Sat, Jan 10 162 Idaho St. L 66-69 40%    
  Thu, Jan 15 280 @Sacramento St. L 73-75 41%    
  Sat, Jan 17 178 @Portland St. L 65-73 24%    
  Mon, Jan 19 205 Montana W 75-74 50%    
  Sat, Jan 24 156 Northern Colorado L 71-74 40%    
  Thu, Jan 29 240 Eastern Washington W 77-75 56%    
  Sat, Jan 31 173 Idaho L 71-73 44%    
  Thu, Feb 5 162 @Idaho St. L 63-72 22%    
  Sat, Feb 7 214 @Weber St. L 70-76 31%    
  Thu, Feb 12 178 Portland St. L 68-70 45%    
  Sat, Feb 14 280 Sacramento St. W 76-72 62%    
  Sat, Feb 21 156 @Northern Colorado L 68-77 21%    
  Thu, Feb 26 173 @Idaho L 68-76 24%    
  Sat, Feb 28 240 @Eastern Washington L 74-78 35%    
  Mon, Mar 2 174 Montana St. L 67-69 44%    
Projected Record 10 - 18 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.1 2.4 0.6 0.1 5.5 3rd
4th 0.3 2.3 3.1 0.9 0.1 6.7 4th
5th 0.2 2.2 4.4 1.4 0.1 8.2 5th
6th 0.1 2.1 5.2 2.4 0.1 9.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.2 5.9 3.7 0.3 0.0 12.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.6 6.2 4.6 0.5 0.0 14.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.2 4.0 6.4 4.7 0.8 0.0 17.3 9th
10th 0.3 1.4 3.3 5.1 5.3 3.1 0.6 0.0 19.1 10th
Total 0.3 1.4 3.5 6.3 9.7 12.4 13.9 13.6 11.9 9.6 7.0 5.1 2.9 1.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-3 96.2% 0.3    0.2 0.0
14-4 81.8% 0.5    0.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 60.4% 0.9    0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 21.8% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
11-7 4.9% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.6% 2.6 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 17.4% 17.4% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.3% 27.8% 27.8% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-4 0.6% 17.2% 17.2% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5
13-5 1.5% 15.3% 15.3% 14.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.3
12-6 2.9% 12.7% 12.7% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 2.5
11-7 5.1% 8.6% 8.6% 15.3 0.0 0.3 0.2 4.7
10-8 7.0% 7.4% 7.4% 15.7 0.2 0.4 6.5
9-9 9.6% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.0 0.4 9.2
8-10 11.9% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.3 11.6
7-11 13.6% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.2 13.4
6-12 13.9% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 13.7
5-13 12.4% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 12.3
4-14 9.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 9.7
3-15 6.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 6.3
2-16 3.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.5
1-17 1.4% 1.4
0-18 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.9 97.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%