Montana St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.0#174
Expected Predictive Rating-6.6#264
Pace65.2#292
Improvement-1.7#300

Offense
Total Offense-1.6#211
First Shot-1.4#218
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#193
Layup/Dunks-3.9#308
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#54
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#75
Freethrows-3.6#342
Improvement-0.6#228

Defense
Total Defense+0.6#148
First Shot-1.8#235
After Offensive Rebounds+2.4#38
Layups/Dunks-2.4#268
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#331
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.9#21
Freethrows-2.7#330
Improvement-1.1#269
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.0% 15.0% 10.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.7 15.2
.500 or above 36.2% 46.5% 24.2%
.500 or above in Conference 71.3% 76.2% 65.6%
Conference Champion 17.5% 20.7% 13.8%
Last Place in Conference 4.9% 3.5% 6.4%
First Four2.6% 1.9% 3.3%
First Round12.1% 14.4% 9.5%
Second Round0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal Poly (Away) - 53.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 34 - 65 - 11
Quad 49 - 514 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 62 @Colorado L 78-84 12%     0 - 1 +5.8 +9.6 -3.9
  Sun, Nov 9 314 Denver L 73-75 85%     0 - 2 -14.0 -4.9 -9.2
  Wed, Nov 12 93 @Stanford L 68-77 18%     0 - 3 -0.4 -5.0 +5.2
  Sat, Nov 15 46 @Boise St. L 58-62 9%     0 - 4 +10.0 -0.2 +9.8
  Fri, Nov 21 279 @Long Beach St. W 78-72 59%     1 - 4 +2.8 +3.6 -0.8
  Sat, Nov 29 43 @Utah St. L 81-84 OT 8%     1 - 5 +11.3 +6.6 +5.0
  Wed, Dec 3 136 St. Thomas W 82-74 52%     2 - 5 +6.6 +11.0 -4.2
  Sat, Dec 6 300 @Oral Roberts L 68-72 64%     2 - 6 -8.8 -2.6 -6.5
  Sat, Dec 13 157 @Oregon St. L 57-67 34%     2 - 7 -6.9 -9.0 +1.2
  Tue, Dec 16 249 @Cal Poly W 78-77 54%    
  Thu, Jan 1 156 Northern Colorado W 73-71 57%    
  Sat, Jan 3 270 Northern Arizona W 72-64 77%    
  Thu, Jan 8 240 @Eastern Washington W 75-74 52%    
  Sat, Jan 10 173 @Idaho L 70-73 39%    
  Sat, Jan 17 205 Montana W 76-71 67%    
  Mon, Jan 19 156 @Northern Colorado L 70-74 35%    
  Thu, Jan 22 162 Idaho St. W 68-66 58%    
  Sat, Jan 24 214 Weber St. W 74-69 68%    
  Thu, Jan 29 280 @Sacramento St. W 74-72 58%    
  Sat, Jan 31 178 @Portland St. L 66-69 40%    
  Thu, Feb 5 173 Idaho W 73-70 61%    
  Sat, Feb 7 240 Eastern Washington W 78-71 72%    
  Sat, Feb 14 205 @Montana L 73-74 46%    
  Thu, Feb 19 214 @Weber St. L 71-72 47%    
  Sat, Feb 21 162 @Idaho St. L 65-69 36%    
  Thu, Feb 26 178 Portland St. W 69-66 61%    
  Sat, Feb 28 280 Sacramento St. W 77-69 77%    
  Mon, Mar 2 270 @Northern Arizona W 69-67 56%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.4 4.6 4.8 3.2 1.5 0.5 0.1 17.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.6 5.8 3.7 1.2 0.2 0.0 15.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.8 6.2 2.9 0.6 0.0 14.0 3rd
4th 0.2 3.1 6.1 2.7 0.3 0.0 12.4 4th
5th 0.1 2.0 5.7 2.8 0.3 0.0 10.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 4.6 3.0 0.4 0.0 9.4 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 3.3 3.1 0.4 7.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 2.4 2.7 0.4 0.0 6.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.4 1.6 0.4 0.0 4.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.6 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.6 2.9 5.1 7.8 10.4 12.5 13.6 13.3 11.5 8.9 6.0 3.4 1.5 0.5 0.1 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
16-2 99.3% 1.5    1.4 0.1
15-3 94.2% 3.2    2.8 0.4 0.0
14-4 79.4% 4.8    3.4 1.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 52.1% 4.6    2.1 2.0 0.5 0.1
12-6 20.9% 2.4    0.5 1.0 0.7 0.1 0.0
11-7 3.3% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 17.5% 17.5 10.9 4.9 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 47.6% 47.6% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.5% 41.9% 41.9% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
16-2 1.5% 37.9% 37.9% 13.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.9
15-3 3.4% 33.8% 33.8% 13.8 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.2 2.3
14-4 6.0% 28.9% 28.9% 14.2 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.6 0.0 4.3
13-5 8.9% 23.2% 23.2% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.0 0.1 6.8
12-6 11.5% 18.4% 18.4% 15.0 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.3 9.4
11-7 13.3% 13.4% 13.4% 15.3 0.0 0.1 1.0 0.6 11.5
10-8 13.6% 10.5% 10.5% 15.8 0.4 1.1 12.2
9-9 12.5% 8.6% 8.6% 16.0 0.0 1.1 11.4
8-10 10.4% 4.9% 4.9% 16.0 0.5 9.9
7-11 7.8% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.2 7.6
6-12 5.1% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.1 5.0
5-13 2.9% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 2.9
4-14 1.6% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 1.5
3-15 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.7
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 13.0% 13.0% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.3 1.1 3.0 4.6 4.1 87.0 0.0%