Preseason Rankings
Big Ten
2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
2 Purdue 98.7%   1   0 - 0 0 - 0 25 - 5 16 - 4 +23.5      +14.6 1 +8.9 11 63.7 295 0.0 1 0.0 1
6 Michigan 92.5%   2   0 - 0 0 - 0 22 - 8 14 - 6 +19.7      +10.2 14 +9.5 7 73.1 56 0.0 1 0.0 1
13 UCLA 85.3%   4   0 - 0 0 - 0 22 - 9 13 - 7 +17.7      +8.6 24 +9.1 9 63.3 305 0.0 1 0.0 1
15 Illinois 85.2%   4   0 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 10 13 - 7 +17.5      +10.8 9 +6.7 26 76.6 17 0.0 1 0.0 1
21 Michigan St. 77.8%   5   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 11 12 - 8 +15.9      +6.9 41 +9.0 10 68.2 179 0.0 1 0.0 1
26 Wisconsin 71.2%   6   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 11 11 - 9 +15.1      +8.6 25 +6.6 29 68.7 157 0.0 1 0.0 1
27 Ohio St. 69.7%   7   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 11 11 - 9 +14.8      +9.6 15 +5.3 49 67.7 188 0.0 1 0.0 1
28 Oregon 67.2%   6   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 11 11 - 9 +14.4      +7.4 33 +7.0 22 69.3 140 0.0 1 0.0 1
29 USC 64.2%   7   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 11 10 - 10 +14.3      +8.4 26 +5.9 41 70.0 120 0.0 1 0.0 1
33 Indiana 56.5%   8   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 12 10 - 10 +13.6      +7.2 36 +6.4 30 69.5 135 0.0 1 0.0 1
34 Iowa 58.5%   8   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 12 10 - 10 +13.6      +9.5 16 +4.0 70 72.8 61 0.0 1 0.0 1
40 Maryland 52.4%   9   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 13 10 - 10 +12.7      +5.3 56 +7.4 18 72.6 64 0.0 1 0.0 1
48 Washington 40.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 14 8 - 12 +11.2      +7.2 37 +4.0 69 68.8 153 0.0 1 0.0 1
59 Nebraska 27.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 14 8 - 12 +9.4      +5.5 52 +3.9 73 68.6 162 0.0 1 0.0 1
72 Northwestern 19.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 16 7 - 13 +7.8      +3.3 87 +4.6 60 63.6 300 0.0 1 0.0 1
82 Rutgers 12.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 16 6 - 14 +6.6      +2.9 97 +3.6 78 70.6 107 0.0 1 0.0 1
87 Minnesota 9.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 17 6 - 14 +6.0      +2.9 98 +3.1 91 59.5 358 0.0 1 0.0 1
90 Penn St. 9.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 17 5 - 15 +5.7      +2.6 103 +3.1 89 73.9 51 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th 17th 18th
Purdue 2.6 46.9 19.1 11.0 6.8 4.9 3.4 2.3 1.7 1.3 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Michigan 4.4 19.3 17.8 13.9 11.1 8.2 6.7 5.4 4.5 3.9 2.7 2.0 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1
UCLA 5.7 11.7 13.4 11.8 10.2 9.0 7.9 6.6 6.1 5.1 4.4 3.5 3.1 2.5 1.9 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.2
Illinois 5.4 12.1 13.5 12.4 11.2 9.8 8.1 6.9 5.7 5.0 4.0 3.2 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.1
Michigan St. 6.8 7.0 9.3 9.4 9.5 9.2 8.5 8.0 7.3 6.2 5.7 4.8 4.2 3.3 2.6 2.2 1.4 0.9 0.5
Wisconsin 7.6 5.1 6.5 7.5 8.4 8.8 8.5 7.9 7.6 7.1 6.3 6.2 5.4 4.4 3.4 2.7 2.2 1.3 0.7
Ohio St. 7.9 5.1 6.1 7.5 7.6 7.6 8.2 7.9 7.6 7.5 6.8 5.9 5.5 4.5 4.2 3.2 2.4 1.6 0.9
Oregon 8.1 4.0 6.3 6.9 7.5 7.8 7.9 7.5 7.6 7.2 6.4 6.3 6.1 5.1 4.3 3.5 2.9 1.9 0.9
USC 8.3 3.8 5.7 6.8 7.1 7.3 7.4 7.6 6.8 7.3 7.1 6.5 6.2 5.6 4.7 3.9 2.9 2.1 1.1
Indiana 8.9 2.5 4.2 5.2 6.2 7.1 7.2 8.1 7.4 7.8 7.3 7.3 6.9 6.1 5.3 4.4 3.4 2.3 1.3
Iowa 9.0 3.0 4.3 5.2 5.9 6.3 7.4 7.6 7.8 7.5 7.2 7.3 6.8 6.0 5.6 4.3 3.7 2.6 1.6
Maryland 9.4 2.4 3.4 4.9 5.5 5.8 6.5 7.3 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.2 6.9 6.2 6.1 5.4 4.4 3.5 2.1
Washington 10.9 1.3 2.1 2.8 3.6 4.4 4.9 5.6 5.8 6.5 7.0 7.4 7.3 8.3 8.1 7.7 7.5 6.0 3.7
Nebraska 11.9 0.6 1.3 1.8 2.5 3.0 3.7 4.2 4.9 6.3 6.6 7.3 8.0 8.5 8.6 9.1 9.1 8.2 6.4
Northwestern 12.9 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.5 2.0 2.7 3.2 3.8 5.1 5.6 6.9 7.4 8.6 9.8 11.1 11.0 10.4 9.2
Rutgers 13.7 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.8 2.1 3.1 4.2 4.3 6.4 7.1 8.5 9.5 10.8 12.1 13.1 13.8
Minnesota 14.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.7 1.9 2.6 3.5 4.1 5.5 6.5 7.8 9.1 10.3 13.0 15.4 15.6
Penn St. 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.6 2.2 2.6 3.6 4.8 5.4 6.9 9.1 10.6 13.5 16.7 19.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Purdue 16 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.9 2.9 4.2 6.7 9.0 11.7 14.0 15.8 14.9 11.4 5.4
Michigan 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.5 2.3 3.7 5.4 7.2 8.8 10.8 12.9 13.2 11.4 10.0 6.9 3.5 1.2
UCLA 13 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.8 3.1 4.5 6.2 7.5 9.4 10.5 11.2 11.3 10.8 9.1 6.7 3.9 1.8 0.5
Illinois 13 - 7 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.5 3.9 5.4 7.2 9.1 11.0 12.3 12.4 10.9 9.2 6.8 4.3 1.9 0.4
Michigan St. 12 - 8 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.0 2.9 4.3 6.2 7.8 10.2 10.6 11.0 11.2 10.3 8.4 6.3 3.8 2.1 1.0 0.2
Wisconsin 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.6 2.7 4.0 5.8 7.9 9.2 10.4 10.9 11.3 10.7 8.8 6.5 4.6 2.7 1.3 0.6 0.1
Ohio St. 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.8 3.1 4.2 6.5 7.8 9.4 10.5 11.7 10.8 9.4 8.0 6.2 4.4 2.7 1.4 0.6 0.1
Oregon 11 - 9 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.1 3.4 4.9 6.9 8.4 9.6 10.3 11.0 10.3 9.4 8.1 5.7 3.9 2.5 1.1 0.5 0.1
USC 10 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.2 3.8 5.6 7.0 8.8 10.2 10.5 10.6 9.9 8.8 7.6 5.8 3.7 2.1 1.1 0.4 0.1
Indiana 10 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.5 4.3 6.0 8.2 9.9 11.1 11.1 10.9 9.6 8.6 6.5 4.3 2.5 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0
Iowa 10 - 10 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.8 2.5 4.5 6.3 8.0 10.1 10.9 10.6 10.6 9.8 7.9 5.9 4.5 3.0 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0
Maryland 10 - 10 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.3 3.6 5.1 7.2 8.7 10.0 10.5 10.7 10.6 9.0 7.0 5.4 3.9 2.3 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.0
Washington 8 - 12 0.2 0.8 2.0 4.0 6.1 8.6 9.8 10.5 10.8 10.0 9.5 8.0 6.8 5.0 3.6 2.1 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Nebraska 8 - 12 0.4 1.7 3.4 5.6 7.8 9.9 10.7 11.4 11.0 10.0 8.7 6.4 4.9 3.5 2.2 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
Northwestern 7 - 13 0.7 2.2 4.8 7.3 10.3 11.8 12.3 11.7 10.4 8.9 6.4 5.2 3.4 2.4 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
Rutgers 6 - 14 1.2 3.8 6.5 9.8 11.9 12.1 12.4 11.2 9.8 7.4 5.6 3.5 2.2 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 6 - 14 1.7 4.5 8.2 10.9 12.5 12.2 11.6 11.1 8.8 6.6 4.5 3.1 2.1 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Penn St. 5 - 15 2.0 6.0 9.8 12.1 13.2 13.0 11.4 10.1 7.5 5.5 3.5 2.6 1.5 1.0 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Purdue 46.9% 34.8 9.8 1.9 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
Michigan 19.3% 12.1 5.4 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
UCLA 11.7% 6.8 3.5 1.0 0.3 0.0
Illinois 12.1% 7.0 3.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
Michigan St. 7.0% 3.8 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Wisconsin 5.1% 2.8 1.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Ohio St. 5.1% 2.8 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Oregon 4.0% 2.2 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
USC 3.8% 1.9 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
Indiana 2.5% 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Iowa 3.0% 1.5 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Maryland 2.4% 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0
Washington 1.3% 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Nebraska 0.6% 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Northwestern 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.0
Rutgers 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Penn St. 0.0% 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Purdue 98.7% 33.0% 65.7% 1   44.8 24.8 11.6 6.9 4.0 2.5 1.7 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.3 98.0%
Michigan 92.5% 14.9% 77.6% 2   19.6 18.7 15.6 11.7 8.0 6.2 4.1 3.0 2.1 2.0 1.5 0.1 0.0 7.5 91.2%
UCLA 85.3% 9.5% 75.8% 4   9.1 11.6 11.9 10.6 9.8 7.9 7.8 6.1 4.9 3.9 1.8 0.0 14.7 83.8%
Illinois 85.2% 9.1% 76.1% 4   9.2 11.6 12.5 10.8 10.3 8.6 6.8 5.2 3.9 3.8 2.3 0.1 14.8 83.7%
Michigan St. 77.8% 6.0% 71.8% 5   5.6 7.7 10.0 9.9 9.7 8.8 7.6 6.0 5.0 4.4 3.0 0.2 22.2 76.4%
Wisconsin 71.2% 4.5% 66.7% 6   3.4 5.9 7.4 8.7 9.0 8.4 8.1 6.6 5.5 4.8 3.1 0.2 28.8 69.9%
Ohio St. 69.7% 4.5% 65.2% 7   3.2 5.1 7.2 7.4 8.6 8.4 8.3 7.4 6.0 5.2 2.7 0.1 30.3 68.3%
Oregon 67.2% 4.1% 63.0% 6   3.0 4.7 6.9 7.6 8.5 8.5 7.7 6.3 5.2 5.1 3.4 0.2 0.0 32.8 65.7%
USC 64.2% 3.7% 60.6% 7   2.7 3.9 6.0 7.0 8.0 7.8 7.3 6.6 5.9 5.6 3.2 0.1 0.0 35.8 62.9%
Indiana 56.5% 2.9% 53.6% 8   1.6 2.9 4.5 5.8 6.4 6.7 7.0 6.7 5.9 5.2 3.5 0.2 43.5 55.2%
Iowa 58.5% 3.0% 55.6% 8   1.8 3.2 4.9 5.4 6.6 7.3 7.2 7.1 5.9 5.6 3.4 0.1 41.5 57.3%
Maryland 52.4% 2.1% 50.3% 9   1.3 2.3 3.8 4.9 5.7 6.6 6.8 6.7 5.6 5.2 3.3 0.2 47.6 51.4%
Washington 40.6% 1.3% 39.3% 0.6 1.3 2.3 3.3 4.3 4.5 5.5 5.7 4.8 5.0 3.1 0.2 0.0 59.4 39.8%
Nebraska 27.8% 0.6% 27.2% 0.2 0.4 1.1 1.4 1.9 2.7 3.5 4.1 4.9 4.9 2.5 0.1 72.2 27.3%
Northwestern 19.3% 0.4% 19.0% 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.8 2.4 3.2 3.4 3.7 2.2 0.2 80.7 19.0%
Rutgers 12.4% 0.2% 12.2% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.8 2.4 2.7 2.0 0.1 87.6 12.2%
Minnesota 9.9% 0.2% 9.8% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.6 2.0 2.3 1.3 0.0 90.1 9.8%
Penn St. 9.5% 0.1% 9.3% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.7 2.2 1.3 0.1 90.5 9.3%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Purdue 98.7% 0.5% 98.5% 94.4% 74.0% 51.1% 32.5% 20.1% 12.0%
Michigan 92.5% 2.3% 91.5% 81.3% 53.5% 30.5% 15.8% 8.2% 4.1%
UCLA 85.3% 2.9% 84.1% 68.5% 39.2% 19.6% 9.4% 4.3% 2.0%
Illinois 85.2% 3.6% 83.5% 68.1% 39.6% 20.1% 9.8% 4.4% 2.0%
Michigan St. 77.8% 4.7% 75.6% 58.3% 30.9% 14.1% 6.2% 2.7% 1.3%
Wisconsin 71.2% 4.9% 68.9% 50.8% 25.3% 11.1% 4.9% 2.1% 0.9%
Ohio St. 69.7% 4.5% 67.5% 48.6% 23.1% 10.4% 4.4% 1.9% 0.8%
Oregon 67.2% 5.2% 64.6% 46.7% 22.3% 9.3% 3.9% 1.6% 0.6%
USC 64.2% 5.2% 61.8% 44.4% 20.7% 9.0% 3.9% 1.5% 0.6%
Indiana 56.5% 5.5% 53.9% 37.4% 16.5% 6.7% 2.6% 1.2% 0.5%
Iowa 58.5% 5.2% 56.0% 38.4% 16.8% 6.9% 2.8% 1.3% 0.5%
Maryland 52.4% 5.3% 49.7% 33.2% 13.7% 5.4% 2.2% 1.0% 0.3%
Washington 40.6% 4.9% 38.2% 23.9% 8.9% 3.3% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Nebraska 27.8% 4.3% 25.6% 14.4% 4.8% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%
Northwestern 19.3% 3.6% 17.6% 9.1% 2.7% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Rutgers 12.4% 3.0% 10.8% 5.5% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Minnesota 9.9% 2.2% 8.7% 4.4% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Penn St. 9.5% 2.2% 8.3% 4.2% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.8 9.5 23.0 31.5 23.0 8.8 1.9 0.2
1st Round 100.0% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.5 3.6 13.8 27.2 30.0 18.1 5.8 0.9 0.1
2nd Round 100.0% 7.3 0.0 0.2 1.8 7.3 18.3 27.3 25.6 14.0 4.5 0.9 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 99.9% 4.0 0.1 2.1 10.0 24.3 30.4 22.0 8.8 2.0 0.3 0.0
Elite Eight 94.2% 2.0 5.8 26.3 37.2 23.3 6.6 0.8 0.0
Final Four 72.3% 1.0 27.7 47.3 21.8 3.2 0.1
Final Game 46.0% 0.5 54.0 41.0 5.0
Champion 25.8% 0.3 74.2 25.8