IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
St. Mary's
West Coast
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	+11.2	#49
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	57.7	#360
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+3.7	#79

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+7.5	#17

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.4%	0.4%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	1.0%	1.0%	0.1%
Top 4 Seed	3.3%	3.6%	0.6%
Top 6 Seed	7.0%	7.6%	1.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid	34.7%	36.5%	17.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	16.5%	17.8%	5.8%
Average Seed	8.8	8.7	9.9

.500 or above	97.2%	98.0%	89.5%
.500 or above in Conference	95.7%	96.2%	90.7%
Conference Champion	25.6%	26.7%	15.5%
Last Place in Conference	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%

First Four	5.3%	5.6%	2.7%
First Round	32.4%	34.1%	17.0%
Second Round	17.0%	18.1%	6.7%
Sweet Sixteen	5.9%	6.3%	2.0%
Elite Eight	2.2%	2.4%	0.5%
Final Four	0.7%	0.8%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.2%	0.3%	0.0%
National Champion	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%

Next Game: St. Thomas (Home) - 90.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	1 - 1	1 - 2
Quad 2	4 - 2	5 - 5
Quad 3	10 - 2	15 - 7
Quad 4	8 - 0	23 - 7

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 03, 2025	149	St. Thomas	W	72-58	90%
Nov 07, 2025	134	Chattanooga	W	70-58	88%
Nov 11, 2025	152	Ohio	W	74-60	90%
Nov 14, 2025	88	North Texas	W	59-51	77%
Nov 19, 2025	137	Arkansas St.	W	72-59	87%
Nov 26, 2025	122	Wichita St.	W	69-60	78%
Dec 07, 2025	145	@ Davidson	W	66-59	74%
Dec 14, 2025	62	Boise St.	W	63-61	57%
Dec 19, 2025	140	Florida Atlantic	W	72-59	87%
Dec 22, 2025	112	Northern Iowa	W	66-56	82%
Dec 28, 2025	135	@ Loyola Marymount	W	66-60	71%
Dec 30, 2025	244	@ Pepperdine	W	71-58	87%
Jan 02, 2026	265	Portland	W	76-56	95%
Jan 04, 2026	121	Seattle	W	66-54	84%
Jan 10, 2026	128	Washington St.	W	73-61	85%
Jan 13, 2026	77	@ San Francisco	W	64-63	53%
Jan 17, 2026	106	@ Santa Clara	W	67-63	62%
Jan 21, 2026	117	Oregon St.	W	67-56	83%
Jan 24, 2026	265	@ Portland	W	73-59	88%
Jan 31, 2026	18	@ Gonzaga	L	64-72	25%
Feb 04, 2026	180	San Diego	W	75-60	90%
Feb 07, 2026	77	San Francisco	W	67-60	72%
Feb 10, 2026	244	Pepperdine	W	74-55	94%
Feb 14, 2026	219	@ Pacific	W	69-57	83%
Feb 18, 2026	121	@ Seattle	W	63-57	68%
Feb 21, 2026	128	@ Washington St.	W	70-64	69%
Feb 25, 2026	106	Santa Clara	W	70-60	79%
Feb 28, 2026	18	Gonzaga	L	67-69	42%
Projected Record						21 - 7	13 - 5

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected West Coast Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.4	1.9	6.0	8.6	6.5	2.1		25.6	1st
2nd												0.3	2.2	6.7	10.8	8.8	3.0				31.9	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.3	2.2	6.0	6.4	2.8	0.3	0.0				18.1	3rd
4th									0.0	0.2	1.9	4.2	3.2	1.0	0.1						10.6	4th
5th									0.1	1.0	2.7	1.7	0.4	0.0							6.0	5th
6th								0.1	0.7	1.5	1.1	0.1									3.5	6th
7th							0.0	0.3	1.1	0.6	0.1										2.1	7th
8th							0.2	0.5	0.4	0.0											1.1	8th
9th						0.1	0.2	0.3	0.0	0.0											0.6	9th
10th					0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0													0.3	10th
11th				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0														0.1	11th
12th		0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0															0.0	12th

Total		0.0		0.0	0.1	0.2	0.6	1.2	2.2	3.5	6.2	8.7	11.9	14.5	15.6	15.2	11.5	6.5	2.1			Total

West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	2.1		2.1
17-1	100.0%	6.5		5.5	1.0
16-2	74.2%	8.6		5.4	3.0	0.1
15-3	39.6%	6.0		2.8	2.8	0.4	0.0
14-4	12.5%	1.9		0.6	0.9	0.4	0.1
13-5	3.1%	0.4		0.1	0.1	0.2	0.0
12-6	0.3%	0.0		0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	25.6%	25.6		16.4	7.9	1.1	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	2.1%		98.3%	63.0%	35.3%	3.9		0.3	0.3	0.4	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0						0.0		95.4%
17-1	6.5%		90.0%	53.2%	36.8%	6.3		0.1	0.2	0.4	0.8	1.0	0.8	0.7	0.5	0.6	0.5	0.2						0.6		78.7%
16-2	11.5%		75.2%	41.0%	34.3%	8.5			0.0	0.0	0.3	0.5	0.8	0.9	1.2	1.4	2.2	1.2	0.0					2.9		58.1%
15-3	15.2%		53.8%	31.4%	22.4%	9.8					0.0	0.0	0.2	0.3	0.7	1.1	2.9	2.8	0.1	0.0				7.0		32.7%
14-4	15.6%		32.9%	22.3%	10.6%	10.5								0.0	0.1	0.4	1.7	2.7	0.2	0.0				10.5		13.6%
13-5	14.5%		18.9%	14.6%	4.3%	10.8									0.0	0.1	0.5	1.8	0.3	0.0				11.8		5.1%
12-6	11.9%		11.1%	9.8%	1.3%	11.2											0.2	0.8	0.3	0.0				10.5		1.5%
11-7	8.7%		5.0%	5.0%		11.3											0.0	0.3	0.1	0.0				8.2
10-8	6.2%		3.6%	3.6%		11.6												0.1	0.1	0.0				6.0
9-9	3.5%		1.2%	1.2%		11.5												0.0	0.0					3.4
8-10	2.2%		1.0%	1.0%		12.3													0.0	0.0				2.2
7-11	1.2%		1.2%	1.2%		12.0													0.0					1.2
6-12	0.6%																							0.6
5-13	0.2%																							0.2
4-14	0.1%																							0.1
3-15	0.0%																							0.0
2-16
1-17	0.0%																							0.0
0-18

Total	100%		34.7%	21.8%	12.9%	8.8		0.4	0.6	0.8	1.5	1.8	1.9	2.0	2.7	3.7	8.1	10.0	1.1	0.1				65.3		16.5%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.7%	100.0%	2.4	25.9	33.9	22.3	13.0	3.0	1.0	1.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.2%	100.0%	3.7	10.0	6.7	23.5	26.6	29.9		3.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.1%	100.0%	4.0	16.0	10.4	15.6	21.2	10.8	10.4	5.2	10.4