IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Bowling Green
Mid-American
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	-3.0	#212
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	71.0	#97
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-1.9	#228

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-1.0	#200

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	4.8%	6.1%	2.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.0	13.5	14.1

.500 or above	54.8%	65.8%	39.2%
.500 or above in Conference	55.2%	62.0%	45.5%
Conference Champion	5.3%	7.0%	2.9%
Last Place in Conference	4.5%	2.9%	6.8%

First Four	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%
First Round	4.8%	6.2%	2.9%
Second Round	0.3%	0.4%	0.2%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Texas St. (Home) - 58.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 3
Quad 3	3 - 6	3 - 9
Quad 4	11 - 5	14 - 14

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 03, 2025	197	Texas St.	W	72-70	59%
Nov 09, 2025	344	Le Moyne	W	81-69	86%
Nov 15, 2025	145	@ Davidson	L	67-74	27%
Nov 19, 2025	226	William & Mary	W	80-76	62%
Nov 24, 2025	286	Bucknell	W	73-69	64%
Nov 26, 2025	293	VMI	W	75-71	65%
Dec 01, 2025	57	@ Kansas St.	L	63-79	9%
Dec 06, 2025	118	Utah Valley	L	70-73	41%
Dec 16, 2025	351	Chicago St.	W	79-66	86%
Dec 20, 2025	152	@ Ohio	L	73-79	29%
Dec 30, 2025	125	Miami (OH)	L	73-75	43%
Jan 03, 2026	170	@ Massachusetts	L	72-77	33%
Jan 06, 2026	127	@ Kent St.	L	66-74	25%
Jan 10, 2026	108	Akron	L	76-80	37%
Jan 17, 2026	292	Eastern Michigan	W	77-70	73%
Jan 20, 2026	282	@ Western Michigan	W	73-72	53%
Jan 24, 2026	196	@ Toledo	L	75-79	38%
Jan 27, 2026	337	Buffalo	W	81-70	82%
Jan 31, 2026	299	@ Central Michigan	W	72-70	55%
Feb 03, 2026	247	Ball St.	W	75-70	65%
Feb 11, 2026	314	@ Northern Illinois	W	75-72	59%
Feb 14, 2026	196	Toledo	W	78-76	57%
Feb 17, 2026	127	Kent St.	L	69-71	43%
Feb 21, 2026	125	@ Miami (OH)	L	70-78	25%
Feb 24, 2026	282	Western Michigan	W	76-69	72%
Feb 28, 2026	170	Massachusetts	W	75-74	53%
Mar 06, 2026	292	@ Eastern Michigan	W	74-73	54%
Projected Record						14 - 13	9 - 9

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Mid-American Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st													0.1	0.7	1.4	1.5	1.1	0.4	0.1		5.3	1st
2nd											0.0	0.2	1.1	2.5	2.3	0.8	0.1	0.0			7.0	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.2	1.6	3.4	2.5	0.6	0.0					8.4	3rd
4th										0.2	1.6	4.3	2.8	0.6	0.0						9.5	4th
5th									0.1	1.6	4.2	3.2	0.7	0.0							9.8	5th
6th							0.0	0.1	1.2	4.6	3.7	0.7	0.0								10.3	6th
7th							0.1	1.2	4.5	4.0	0.8	0.1									10.7	7th
8th						0.0	0.8	3.5	4.2	1.1	0.1										9.8	8th
9th					0.0	0.6	3.1	3.8	1.1	0.2											8.8	9th
10th				0.0	0.4	2.4	3.4	1.2	0.1												7.6	10th
11th			0.0	0.4	1.7	2.6	1.2	0.1													6.0	11th
12th		0.0	0.4	1.3	1.8	0.7	0.1														4.4	12th
13th	0.1	0.4	0.8	0.7	0.4	0.1															2.4	13th

Total	0.1	0.5	1.2	2.5	4.3	6.5	8.7	10.0	11.2	11.7	10.7	10.0	8.0	6.4	4.3	2.3	1.3	0.4	0.1			Total

Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
17-1	98.2%	0.4		0.3	0.0
16-2	90.0%	1.1		0.9	0.3	0.0
15-3	65.2%	1.5		0.8	0.6	0.1
14-4	32.7%	1.4		0.5	0.7	0.3	0.0
13-5	10.5%	0.7		0.1	0.2	0.3	0.0
12-6	1.0%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	5.3%	5.3		2.8	1.8	0.7	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.1%		33.2%	33.2%		11.8												0.0		0.0				0.1
17-1	0.4%		31.6%	31.6%		11.7												0.0	0.1	0.0				0.3
16-2	1.3%		32.2%	32.2%		12.3												0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0			0.9
15-3	2.3%		25.8%	25.8%		12.5												0.0	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0		1.7
14-4	4.3%		18.9%	18.9%		13.2													0.2	0.3	0.2	0.1		3.5
13-5	6.4%		13.0%	13.0%		13.6													0.1	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0	5.5
12-6	8.0%		8.0%	8.0%		14.5													0.0	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.1	7.4
11-7	10.0%		5.5%	5.5%		15.2														0.1	0.1	0.3	0.1	9.4
10-8	10.7%		4.0%	4.0%		15.2													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	10.3
9-9	11.7%		2.1%	2.1%		16.9														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	11.5
8-10	11.2%		0.9%	0.9%		20.0																0.0	0.1	11.1
7-11	10.0%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	10.0
6-12	8.7%																							8.7
5-13	6.5%																							6.5
4-14	4.3%																							4.3
3-15	2.5%																							2.5
2-16	1.2%																							1.2
1-17	0.5%																							0.5
0-18	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		4.8%	4.8%	0.0%	14.0												0.2	0.8	1.3	1.1	1.0	0.4	95.2		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.0%