IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Cal St. Northridge
Big West
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	-1.2	#176
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	78.9	#8
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-0.7	#186

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-0.5	#182

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	7.3%	11.3%	6.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Average Seed	13.3	12.8	13.3

.500 or above	59.0%	79.1%	53.0%
.500 or above in Conference	63.7%	77.1%	59.8%
Conference Champion	7.6%	12.7%	6.0%
Last Place in Conference	3.8%	1.4%	4.5%

First Four	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
First Round	7.4%	11.3%	6.2%
Second Round	0.7%	1.3%	0.5%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Northern Iowa (Away) - 22.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	1 - 3	1 - 4
Quad 3	4 - 6	5 - 10
Quad 4	12 - 4	17 - 15

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 06, 2025	112	@ Northern Iowa	L	69-77	23%
Nov 09, 2025	315	@ North Dakota	W	82-77	67%
Nov 11, 2025	215	@ North Dakota St.	L	74-75	45%
Nov 16, 2025	130	Troy	L	73-74	49%
Nov 26, 2025	239	Idaho	W	79-76	61%
Nov 28, 2025	287	Idaho St.	W	76-70	70%
Dec 04, 2025	234	Cal St. Bakersfield	W	78-72	69%
Dec 06, 2025	92	@ UC Irvine	L	71-81	21%
Dec 10, 2025	186	Fresno St.	W	83-79	63%
Dec 13, 2025	236	@ Delaware	W	82-81	50%
Dec 22, 2025	279	Sacramento St.	W	77-69	77%
Dec 27, 2025	99	@ Stanford	L	70-79	21%
Jan 01, 2026	255	@ UC Davis	W	74-73	53%
Jan 03, 2026	126	UC Santa Barbara	L	74-75	49%
Jan 08, 2026	253	Cal Poly	W	90-83	71%
Jan 10, 2026	336	@ Cal St. Fullerton	W	78-71	71%
Jan 15, 2026	119	@ UC San Diego	L	70-77	29%
Jan 17, 2026	264	Long Beach St.	W	76-69	73%
Jan 25, 2026	141	@ Hawaii	L	70-76	32%
Jan 29, 2026	255	UC Davis	W	77-70	71%
Jan 31, 2026	119	UC San Diego	L	73-74	47%
Feb 05, 2026	253	@ Cal Poly	W	87-86	53%
Feb 07, 2026	256	UC Riverside	W	79-72	72%
Feb 14, 2026	141	Hawaii	W	74-73	51%
Feb 19, 2026	126	@ UC Santa Barbara	L	72-78	30%
Feb 21, 2026	264	@ Long Beach St.	W	73-72	54%
Feb 26, 2026	92	UC Irvine	L	74-78	37%
Feb 28, 2026	256	@ UC Riverside	W	76-75	53%
Mar 05, 2026	234	@ Cal St. Bakersfield	L	74-75	49%
Mar 07, 2026	336	Cal St. Fullerton	W	81-68	85%
Projected Record						16 - 14	11 - 9

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big West Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st														0.0	0.6	1.3	2.1	2.0	1.0	0.4	0.1		7.6	1st
2nd												0.0	0.3	1.5	3.2	3.3	2.0	0.4	0.1				10.8	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.6	2.4	4.3	3.6	1.3	0.2	0.0					12.5	3rd
4th										0.1	0.9	3.3	4.9	2.8	0.8	0.1	0.0						12.9	4th
5th									0.1	1.0	4.3	4.7	2.6	0.4	0.0								13.1	5th
6th								0.1	1.3	3.9	4.5	1.9	0.3										12.0	6th
7th							0.2	1.4	3.2	3.8	1.2	0.1											9.9	7th
8th						0.2	1.3	3.1	2.8	0.8	0.1												8.3	8th
9th				0.0	0.3	1.3	2.3	1.8	0.4	0.0													6.3	9th
10th			0.1	0.5	1.0	1.6	1.0	0.2	0.0														4.5	10th
11th	0.1	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.6	0.3	0.0																2.1	11th

Total	0.1	0.1	0.6	1.0	1.9	3.5	4.8	6.6	7.9	9.6	10.9	10.6	10.5	9.1	8.3	6.0	4.3	2.5	1.1	0.4	0.1			Total

Big West Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
19-1	100.0%	0.4		0.4
18-2	92.5%	1.0		0.9	0.1
17-3	81.8%	2.0		1.5	0.5	0.0
16-4	49.2%	2.1		1.1	0.9	0.1	0.0
15-5	21.2%	1.3		0.4	0.6	0.2	0.0
14-6	6.7%	0.6		0.1	0.2	0.2	0.0	0.0
13-7	0.5%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.0%
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	7.6%	7.6		4.6	2.3	0.6	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.1%		61.2%	53.6%	7.7%	9.5								0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0						0.0		16.5%
19-1	0.4%		52.4%	50.8%	1.6%	11.3										0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1					0.2		3.2%
18-2	1.1%		39.9%	39.9%		12.0											0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0			0.7
17-3	2.5%		34.4%	34.4%		12.3												0.1	0.5	0.2	0.1			1.6
16-4	4.3%		28.2%	28.2%		12.7												0.1	0.5	0.4	0.2	0.0		3.1
15-5	6.0%		20.5%	20.5%		12.9												0.0	0.4	0.5	0.3	0.0		4.8
14-6	8.3%		14.7%	14.7%		13.5													0.2	0.5	0.4	0.1	0.0	7.1
13-7	9.1%		10.3%	10.3%		13.8													0.1	0.3	0.4	0.2	0.0	8.2
12-8	10.5%		5.3%	5.3%		14.5													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.0	9.9
11-9	10.6%		3.1%	3.1%		16.0														0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	10.3
10-10	10.9%		1.4%	1.4%		16.8														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	10.7
9-11	9.6%		0.9%	0.9%		17.6															0.0	0.0	0.0	9.5
8-12	7.9%		0.4%	0.4%		15.2															0.0	0.0	0.0	7.9
7-13	6.6%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	6.6
6-14	4.8%																							4.8
5-15	3.5%																							3.5
4-16	1.9%																							1.9
3-17	1.0%																							1.0
2-18	0.6%																							0.6
1-19	0.1%																							0.1
0-20	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		7.3%	7.3%	0.0%	13.3								0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3	1.9	2.3	1.7	0.8	0.3	92.7		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.0%	100.0%	7.5							50.0	50.0