IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Florida
Southeastern
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	+21.5	#5
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	72.7	#63
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+12.6	#3

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+8.9	#12

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	8.5%	11.2%	3.8%
#1 Seed	29.3%	35.9%	18.1%
Top 2 Seed	50.9%	59.6%	36.1%
Top 4 Seed	75.3%	82.7%	62.5%
Top 6 Seed	86.8%	92.1%	77.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid	95.7%	97.8%	92.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	94.2%	96.8%	90.4%
Average Seed	3.1	2.7	3.8

.500 or above	97.5%	98.9%	95.3%
.500 or above in Conference	93.5%	95.4%	90.3%
Conference Champion	37.9%	43.6%	28.3%
Last Place in Conference	0.2%	0.1%	0.4%

First Four	1.7%	1.0%	2.8%
First Round	95.1%	97.4%	91.3%
Second Round	87.8%	91.8%	81.1%
Sweet Sixteen	62.9%	68.1%	54.0%
Elite Eight	39.6%	45.0%	30.5%
Final Four	23.3%	27.1%	16.9%
Championship Game	12.8%	15.5%	8.3%
National Champion	6.8%	8.4%	4.2%

Next Game: Arizona (Neutral) - 62.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	5 - 5	5 - 5
Quad 1b	5 - 2	11 - 7
Quad 2	6 - 1	17 - 7
Quad 3	3 - 0	20 - 8
Quad 4	4 - 0	24 - 8

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 03, 2025	11	Arizona	W	82-79	63%
Nov 06, 2025	330	North Florida	W	101-66	99.9%
Nov 11, 2025	75	Florida St.	W	86-69	94%
Nov 16, 2025	55	Miami (FL)	W	83-71	85%
Nov 27, 2025	56	TCU	W	79-67	86%
Dec 02, 2025	3	@ Duke	L	72-76	37%
Dec 09, 2025	4	Connecticut	L	72-73	47%
Dec 13, 2025	85	George Washington	W	83-68	90%
Dec 17, 2025	345	St. Francis (PA)	W	92-56	99.9%
Dec 21, 2025	227	Colgate	W	89-61	99%
Dec 29, 2025	229	Dartmouth	W	91-63	99%
Jan 03, 2026	37	@ Missouri	W	81-76	67%
Jan 06, 2026	52	Georgia	W	81-67	88%
Jan 10, 2026	16	Tennessee	W	73-66	72%
Jan 13, 2026	47	@ Oklahoma	W	81-74	72%
Jan 17, 2026	41	@ Vanderbilt	W	82-76	69%
Jan 20, 2026	53	LSU	W	83-69	88%
Jan 24, 2026	22	Auburn	W	81-72	76%
Jan 28, 2026	71	@ South Carolina	W	77-67	81%
Feb 01, 2026	19	Alabama	W	90-82	75%
Feb 07, 2026	36	@ Texas A&M	W	77-72	67%
Feb 11, 2026	52	@ Georgia	W	78-70	75%
Feb 14, 2026	7	Kentucky	W	83-78	66%
Feb 17, 2026	71	South Carolina	W	80-64	91%
Feb 21, 2026	30	@ Mississippi	W	78-74	65%
Feb 25, 2026	38	@ Texas	W	78-73	67%
Feb 28, 2026	17	Arkansas	W	81-73	74%
Mar 03, 2026	32	Mississippi St.	W	82-71	81%
Mar 07, 2026	7	@ Kentucky	L	80-81	47%
Projected Record						22 - 7	13 - 5

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Southeastern Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st													0.1	1.5	5.2	9.1	10.3	8.3	3.3		37.9	1st
2nd												0.1	1.2	5.3	6.5	3.6	1.1	0.0			17.8	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.9	3.6	5.0	2.0	0.3	0.0				11.7	3rd
4th										0.0	0.3	2.4	3.9	1.3	0.2	0.0					8.1	4th
5th										0.1	1.5	3.5	1.6	0.2							6.8	5th
6th										0.4	2.2	1.7	0.2	0.0							4.6	6th
7th									0.1	1.3	1.6	0.4	0.0								3.3	7th
8th								0.0	0.5	1.6	0.6	0.0									2.7	8th
9th								0.2	1.0	0.9	0.1										2.1	9th
10th							0.0	0.4	0.9	0.2											1.5	10th
11th						0.0	0.2	0.7	0.4												1.3	11th
12th						0.1	0.4	0.4	0.1	0.0											0.9	12th
13th					0.0	0.2	0.3	0.1	0.0												0.6	13th
14th				0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0													0.4	14th
15th		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0														0.2	15th
16th			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0															0.1	16th

Total		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.5	1.0	1.9	2.8	4.4	6.4	8.9	10.7	13.3	13.9	13.0	11.4	8.3	3.3			Total

Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	3.3		3.3
17-1	99.7%	8.3		7.8	0.4
16-2	90.4%	10.3		8.4	1.8	0.1	0.0
15-3	70.2%	9.1		5.2	3.4	0.5	0.0
14-4	37.7%	5.2		1.8	2.2	1.0	0.1	0.0
13-5	11.4%	1.5		0.3	0.5	0.4	0.2	0.0
12-6	1.3%	0.1			0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	37.9%	37.9		26.9	8.4	2.1	0.5	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	3.3%		100.0%	67.0%	33.0%	1.1		2.9	0.4																	100.0%
17-1	8.3%		100.0%	53.9%	46.1%	1.2		6.6	1.6	0.0																100.0%
16-2	11.4%		100.0%	44.2%	55.8%	1.4		7.6	3.5	0.3	0.0															100.0%
15-3	13.0%		100.0%	32.6%	67.4%	1.7		6.4	5.0	1.4	0.2	0.0	0.0													100.0%
14-4	13.9%		100.0%	29.1%	70.9%	2.2		3.7	5.4	3.4	1.2	0.2	0.0													100.0%
13-5	13.3%		100.0%	22.0%	78.0%	2.9		1.6	3.7	4.2	2.5	1.0	0.3	0.1												100.0%
12-6	10.7%		99.7%	15.4%	84.3%	3.7		0.4	1.5	3.0	2.9	1.7	0.7	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0							0.0		99.7%
11-7	8.9%		99.6%	9.1%	90.5%	4.8		0.1	0.4	1.5	2.2	2.1	1.3	0.8	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.0						0.0		99.6%
10-8	6.4%		98.0%	6.1%	91.9%	6.0		0.0	0.1	0.5	0.8	1.4	1.2	1.0	0.6	0.4	0.2	0.1						0.1		97.9%
9-9	4.4%		92.6%	3.1%	89.6%	7.4			0.0	0.1	0.2	0.5	0.8	0.7	0.7	0.4	0.5	0.3						0.3		92.4%
8-10	2.8%		67.0%	1.0%	66.0%	8.8				0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.5	0.3	0.0	0.0				0.9		66.7%
7-11	1.9%		39.1%	1.5%	37.6%	9.7						0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.0					1.2		38.2%
6-12	1.0%		11.0%		11.0%	10.6										0.0	0.0	0.1						0.9		11.0%
5-13	0.5%																							0.5
4-14	0.2%																							0.2
3-15	0.1%																							0.1
2-16	0.0%																							0.0
1-17	0.0%																							0.0
0-18

Total	100%		95.7%	26.0%	69.8%	3.1		29.3	21.6	14.4	10.0	6.9	4.6	2.9	2.1	1.3	1.5	1.1	0.0	0.0				4.3		94.2%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.8%	100.0%	1.1	92.9	7.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.1%	100.0%	1.0	100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.1%	100.0%	1.2	81.3	18.7