IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Gonzaga
West Coast
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	+16.6	#18
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	74.3	#45
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+10.6	#12

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+6.0	#38

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.6%	0.6%	0.0%
#1 Seed	4.0%	4.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	9.7%	9.7%	1.4%
Top 4 Seed	24.5%	24.6%	4.1%
Top 6 Seed	39.2%	39.3%	8.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid	78.7%	78.9%	42.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	52.6%	52.9%	14.2%
Average Seed	6.5	6.5	8.7

.500 or above	99.3%	99.4%	97.2%
.500 or above in Conference	99.6%	99.6%	100.0%
Conference Champion	69.0%	69.1%	47.9%
Last Place in Conference	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

First Four	3.5%	3.5%	5.5%
First Round	77.4%	77.5%	41.1%
Second Round	55.6%	55.8%	21.9%
Sweet Sixteen	28.0%	28.1%	10.9%
Elite Eight	13.7%	13.8%	2.7%
Final Four	6.5%	6.5%	0.0%
Championship Game	3.0%	3.0%	0.0%
National Champion	1.4%	1.4%	0.0%

Next Game: Texas Southern (Home) - 99.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	1 - 2	1 - 2
Quad 1b	2 - 2	4 - 4
Quad 2	6 - 2	10 - 6
Quad 3	7 - 1	17 - 6
Quad 4	9 - 0	26 - 6

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 03, 2025	290	Texas Southern	W	90-63	99%
Nov 08, 2025	47	Oklahoma	W	83-75	77%
Nov 11, 2025	25	Creighton	W	80-76	66%
Nov 14, 2025	69	@ Arizona St.	W	80-75	68%
Nov 17, 2025	271	Southern Utah	W	90-64	99%
Nov 24, 2025	19	Alabama	W	88-87	50%
Nov 25, 2025	40	Maryland	W	80-76	64%
Dec 05, 2025	7	Kentucky	L	80-83	41%
Dec 07, 2025	330	North Florida	W	100-70	99%
Dec 13, 2025	13	UCLA	L	73-74	45%
Dec 17, 2025	200	Campbell	W	85-63	97%
Dec 21, 2025	28	Oregon	W	78-76	57%
Dec 28, 2025	244	@ Pepperdine	W	88-70	94%
Dec 30, 2025	180	@ San Diego	W	90-75	90%
Jan 02, 2026	121	Seattle	W	81-64	92%
Jan 04, 2026	135	Loyola Marymount	W	84-66	93%
Jan 08, 2026	106	Santa Clara	W	86-71	90%
Jan 15, 2026	128	@ Washington St.	W	87-76	82%
Jan 17, 2026	121	@ Seattle	W	78-67	82%
Jan 20, 2026	244	Pepperdine	W	91-67	98%
Jan 24, 2026	77	San Francisco	W	83-71	84%
Jan 31, 2026	49	St. Mary's	W	72-64	75%
Feb 04, 2026	265	@ Portland	W	89-70	94%
Feb 07, 2026	117	@ Oregon St.	W	79-69	81%
Feb 10, 2026	128	Washington St.	W	90-73	93%
Feb 14, 2026	106	@ Santa Clara	W	83-74	78%
Feb 18, 2026	77	@ San Francisco	W	80-74	70%
Feb 21, 2026	219	Pacific	W	87-64	97%
Feb 25, 2026	265	Portland	W	92-67	98%
Feb 28, 2026	49	@ St. Mary's	W	69-67	58%
Projected Record						24 - 6	16 - 2

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected West Coast Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.6	3.5	10.0	18.4	21.9	14.4		69.0	1st
2nd												0.1	0.7	3.4	6.3	6.1	2.4	0.0			19.1	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.1	0.6	1.9	2.5	1.4	0.2	0.0				6.7	3rd
4th										0.0	0.3	1.1	1.2	0.3	0.0						2.9	4th
5th									0.0	0.1	0.6	0.5	0.1								1.3	5th
6th									0.0	0.2	0.2	0.1									0.6	6th
7th								0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0										0.3	7th
8th							0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0										0.2	8th
9th							0.0	0.0	0.0												0.1	9th
10th						0.0															0.0	10th
11th					0.0																0.0	11th
12th																						12th

Total					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.5	1.2	2.2	4.0	6.9	11.2	16.2	20.9	22.0	14.4			Total

West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	14.4		14.4
17-1	99.9%	21.9		20.6	1.3
16-2	88.2%	18.4		14.2	4.1	0.1
15-3	61.3%	10.0		5.5	4.0	0.5	0.0
14-4	31.5%	3.5		1.3	1.6	0.6	0.1
13-5	9.4%	0.6		0.1	0.3	0.2	0.1
12-6	0.7%	0.0			0.0	0.0		0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	69.0%	69.0		56.3	11.2	1.4	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	14.4%		99.2%	79.3%	19.9%	3.1		3.2	3.5	2.7	2.1	1.1	0.8	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0						0.1		96.2%
17-1	22.0%		97.1%	70.1%	27.1%	5.0		0.8	2.0	3.3	4.2	3.2	2.8	1.9	1.5	0.9	0.6	0.2						0.6		90.4%
16-2	20.9%		90.0%	58.6%	31.4%	7.1		0.0	0.2	0.7	1.6	2.3	2.8	2.7	2.7	2.8	2.1	0.9	0.0					2.1		75.8%
15-3	16.2%		77.7%	49.2%	28.5%	8.6			0.0	0.0	0.2	0.5	1.0	1.6	2.1	2.6	3.0	1.5	0.1					3.6		56.1%
14-4	11.2%		62.1%	40.7%	21.4%	9.6					0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.7	1.4	2.4	1.8	0.2					4.3		36.2%
13-5	6.9%		44.4%	31.4%	13.1%	10.2							0.0	0.0	0.1	0.5	1.1	1.1	0.2	0.0				3.8		19.0%
12-6	4.0%		25.6%	20.8%	4.8%	10.7								0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.2					3.0		6.0%
11-7	2.2%		20.1%	17.3%	2.8%	11.2										0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0				1.8		3.4%
10-8	1.2%		11.0%	9.8%	1.3%	11.4											0.0	0.1	0.0		0.0			1.0		1.4%
9-9	0.5%		5.4%	4.1%	1.3%	12.2												0.0	0.0			0.0		0.5		1.4%
8-10	0.3%		2.6%	2.6%		13.0														0.0				0.3
7-11	0.1%																							0.1
6-12	0.0%																							0.0
5-13	0.0%																							0.0
4-14	0.0%																							0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18

Total	100%		78.7%	55.2%	23.6%	6.5		4.0	5.7	6.7	8.1	7.2	7.5	7.0	7.3	8.4	9.7	6.3	0.8	0.0	0.0	0.0		21.3		52.6%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	1.3%	100.0%	1.5	55.8	38.0	5.6	0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.1%	100.0%	1.9	33.3	43.1	18.9	4.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.0%	100.0%	3.3		33.3	33.3		33.3