IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Idaho St.
Big Sky
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	-7.1	#287
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	65.3	#260
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-4.5	#301

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-2.7	#264

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	3.4%	5.9%	2.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	16.1	14.6	15.1

.500 or above	17.4%	34.4%	13.1%
.500 or above in Conference	31.2%	44.9%	27.8%
Conference Champion	3.2%	6.1%	2.5%
Last Place in Conference	25.1%	14.9%	27.6%

First Four	1.0%	1.1%	1.0%
First Round	3.1%	5.8%	2.5%
Second Round	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: San Diego (Away) - 20.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 3	0 - 4
Quad 3	2 - 8	2 - 12
Quad 4	8 - 7	10 - 19

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 07, 2025	180	@ San Diego	L	69-78	20%
Nov 09, 2025	35	@ San Diego St.	L	53-77	1%
Nov 15, 2025	121	@ Seattle	L	59-72	13%
Nov 18, 2025	106	@ Santa Clara	L	64-78	10%
Nov 26, 2025	199	Sam Houston St.	L	67-72	33%
Nov 28, 2025	176	Cal St. Northridge	L	70-76	30%
Dec 03, 2025	300	@ UMKC	L	63-65	41%
Dec 06, 2025	322	Denver	W	70-65	68%
Dec 10, 2025	118	@ Utah Valley	L	62-75	13%
Dec 21, 2025	255	UC Davis	W	66-65	53%
Jan 01, 2026	279	Sacramento St.	W	67-65	58%
Jan 03, 2026	217	Portland St.	L	67-68	47%
Jan 08, 2026	194	@ Northern Colorado	L	67-75	25%
Jan 10, 2026	254	@ Northern Arizona	L	66-71	34%
Jan 14, 2026	239	@ Idaho	L	67-73	31%
Jan 17, 2026	259	Eastern Washington	W	70-69	53%
Jan 22, 2026	147	@ Montana St.	L	61-72	18%
Jan 24, 2026	183	@ Montana	L	65-73	24%
Jan 31, 2026	281	@ Weber St.	L	65-68	39%
Feb 02, 2026	217	@ Portland St.	L	64-71	29%
Feb 05, 2026	254	Northern Arizona	W	69-68	53%
Feb 07, 2026	194	Northern Colorado	L	70-72	44%
Feb 12, 2026	259	@ Eastern Washington	L	67-72	34%
Feb 14, 2026	239	@ Idaho	L	67-73	32%
Feb 19, 2026	183	Montana	L	68-70	42%
Feb 21, 2026	147	Montana St.	L	64-69	34%
Feb 28, 2026	281	Weber St.	W	68-65	58%
Mar 02, 2026	279	@ Sacramento St.	L	64-68	38%
Projected Record						10 - 18	7 - 11

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big Sky Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.1	0.4	0.8	0.9	0.7	0.3	0.1	0.0		3.2	1st
2nd											0.1	1.0	1.7	1.4	0.5	0.1	0.0				4.9	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.3	1.7	2.6	1.6	0.3	0.0						6.6	3rd
4th								0.0	0.2	2.0	3.3	1.7	0.2	0.0							7.4	4th
5th							0.0	0.3	2.5	3.9	1.9	0.3									8.9	5th
6th						0.0	0.3	2.7	4.8	2.4	0.3										10.6	6th
7th					0.0	0.6	3.1	5.4	2.6	0.4	0.0										12.1	7th
8th			0.0	0.1	1.0	3.8	5.8	2.6	0.4	0.0											13.7	8th
9th		0.0	0.6	2.2	4.7	5.0	2.1	0.3	0.0												14.9	9th
10th	0.8	2.4	4.3	5.2	3.5	1.2	0.2														17.6	10th

Total	0.8	2.4	4.9	7.5	9.2	10.7	11.5	11.3	10.5	9.0	7.5	5.7	3.9	2.5	1.4	0.8	0.3	0.1	0.0			Total

Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-1	100.0%	0.1		0.1
16-2	95.7%	0.3		0.3	0.0
15-3	84.2%	0.7		0.5	0.1	0.0
14-4	60.5%	0.9		0.5	0.3	0.0	0.0
13-5	33.4%	0.8		0.3	0.4	0.2	0.0
12-6	10.3%	0.4		0.0	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0
11-7	1.0%	0.1			0.0		0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	3.2%	3.2		1.8	1.0	0.3	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.0%		50.0%	50.0%		12.0													0.0					0.0
17-1	0.1%		46.2%	46.2%		13.0													0.0	0.0	0.0			0.0
16-2	0.3%		35.0%	35.0%		12.9													0.0	0.1	0.0			0.2
15-3	0.8%		25.4%	25.4%		13.5													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0		0.6
14-4	1.4%		25.5%	25.5%		13.8													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1		1.0
13-5	2.5%		16.6%	16.6%		15.1													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	2.1
12-6	3.9%		11.4%	11.4%		16.4														0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	3.5
11-7	5.7%		8.1%	8.1%		17.5														0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	5.3
10-8	7.5%		5.4%	5.4%		18.5															0.0	0.2	0.3	7.1
9-9	9.0%		4.6%	4.6%		17.4																0.1	0.4	8.6
8-10	10.5%		2.1%	2.1%		16.7															0.0	0.1	0.2	10.3
7-11	11.3%		1.1%	1.1%		16.0																	0.1	11.1
6-12	11.5%		0.6%	0.6%		16.0																	0.1	11.4
5-13	10.7%		0.5%	0.5%		15.9																0.0	0.0	10.6
4-14	9.2%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	9.2
3-15	7.5%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	7.5
2-16	4.9%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	4.9
1-17	2.4%																							2.4
0-18	0.8%																							0.8

Total	100%		3.4%	3.4%	0.0%	16.1													0.1	0.4	0.6	1.1	1.5	96.6		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.2%