IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Louisville
Atlantic Coast
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	+18.1	#10
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	71.3	#91
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+10.8	#10

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+7.3	#20

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	2.3%	2.3%	0.0%
#1 Seed	10.5%	10.5%	3.5%
Top 2 Seed	22.9%	22.9%	3.5%
Top 4 Seed	45.9%	46.0%	14.4%
Top 6 Seed	64.9%	65.0%	18.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	88.9%	89.0%	57.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	86.4%	86.5%	53.8%
Average Seed	4.7	4.7	7.8

.500 or above	96.8%	96.8%	67.8%
.500 or above in Conference	92.9%	92.9%	74.9%
Conference Champion	22.7%	22.7%	3.5%
Last Place in Conference	0.2%	0.2%	0.0%

First Four	2.8%	2.8%	10.9%
First Round	87.6%	87.7%	53.4%
Second Round	71.6%	71.7%	35.7%
Sweet Sixteen	41.9%	42.0%	14.2%
Elite Eight	22.0%	22.0%	10.6%
Final Four	11.0%	11.0%	7.1%
Championship Game	5.1%	5.1%	3.5%
National Champion	2.3%	2.3%	0.0%

Next Game: South Carolina St. (Home) - 99.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	3 - 5	3 - 5
Quad 1b	4 - 2	7 - 7
Quad 2	7 - 2	14 - 9
Quad 3	5 - 0	19 - 9
Quad 4	5 - 0	24 - 9

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 03, 2025	312	South Carolina St.	W	90-60	99.8%
Nov 06, 2025	238	Jackson St.	W	88-63	99%
Nov 11, 2025	7	Kentucky	W	81-79	57%
Nov 15, 2025	152	Ohio	W	89-68	97%
Nov 21, 2025	45	Cincinnati	W	74-68	70%
Nov 24, 2025	292	Eastern Michigan	W	90-62	99%
Nov 26, 2025	357	NJIT	W	88-53	99.9%
Dec 03, 2025	17	@ Arkansas	L	75-77	44%
Dec 06, 2025	33	Indiana	W	77-73	65%
Dec 13, 2025	51	Memphis	W	83-73	82%
Dec 16, 2025	16	@ Tennessee	L	68-70	42%
Dec 20, 2025	183	Montana	W	86-63	97%
Dec 30, 2025	91	@ California	W	80-71	79%
Jan 02, 2026	99	@ Stanford	W	77-67	81%
Jan 06, 2026	3	Duke	L	73-74	45%
Jan 10, 2026	96	Boston College	W	82-66	90%
Jan 13, 2026	44	Virginia	W	72-63	77%
Jan 17, 2026	80	@ Pittsburgh	W	78-70	76%
Jan 24, 2026	76	Virginia Tech	W	79-65	88%
Jan 26, 2026	3	@ Duke	L	70-77	27%
Jan 31, 2026	46	SMU	W	82-73	78%
Feb 04, 2026	63	Notre Dame	W	77-65	84%
Feb 07, 2026	67	@ Wake Forest	W	76-70	71%
Feb 09, 2026	31	North Carolina St.	W	76-69	72%
Feb 14, 2026	24	Baylor	W	74-71	59%
Feb 17, 2026	46	@ SMU	W	79-76	61%
Feb 21, 2026	79	Georgia Tech	W	82-68	88%
Feb 23, 2026	23	@ North Carolina	L	79-80	50%
Feb 28, 2026	42	@ Clemson	W	72-69	59%
Mar 03, 2026	64	Syracuse	W	83-71	84%
Mar 07, 2026	55	@ Miami (FL)	W	79-74	68%
Projected Record						23 - 8	13 - 5

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.3	2.0	6.0	7.5	5.2	1.7		22.7	1st
2nd												0.0	0.5	3.5	7.3	5.8	1.8	0.1			19.0	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.3	3.0	6.1	4.0	0.8	0.0				14.3	3rd
4th											0.1	1.6	5.2	3.7	0.7	0.0					11.4	4th
5th										0.0	0.7	3.4	3.0	0.7	0.0						7.8	5th
6th										0.2	2.0	3.2	0.9	0.0							6.4	6th
7th									0.0	0.9	2.8	1.2	0.1								5.0	7th
8th									0.2	1.6	1.6	0.2									3.6	8th
9th								0.0	0.6	1.7	0.3	0.0									2.6	9th
10th								0.2	1.1	0.9	0.1										2.2	10th
11th							0.1	0.4	0.9	0.1	0.0										1.5	11th
12th							0.1	0.6	0.3	0.0											1.1	12th
13th						0.0	0.3	0.5	0.0												0.9	13th
14th					0.0	0.2	0.3	0.2													0.7	14th
15th				0.0	0.0	0.2	0.1	0.0													0.4	15th
16th					0.0	0.3	0.0														0.3	16th
17th			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0															0.1	17th
18th			0.0	0.0	0.0																0.1	18th

Total			0.1	0.1	0.1	0.7	1.0	1.9	3.3	5.3	7.7	10.0	12.7	14.4	13.9	12.6	9.3	5.3	1.7			Total

Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	1.7		1.7
17-1	98.7%	5.2		4.5	0.7
16-2	80.3%	7.5		4.9	2.4	0.1
15-3	47.5%	6.0		2.4	2.6	0.9	0.1
14-4	14.1%	2.0		0.4	0.8	0.6	0.2	0.0
13-5	2.3%	0.3		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0
12-6	0.2%	0.0					0.0		0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	22.7%	22.7		14.0	6.6	1.7	0.4	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	1.7%		100.0%	58.5%	41.5%	1.3		1.2	0.4	0.0	0.0															100.0%
17-1	5.3%		100.0%	50.9%	49.1%	1.5		3.1	1.6	0.4	0.1	0.0														100.0%
16-2	9.3%		100.0%	39.0%	61.0%	1.9		3.5	3.7	1.5	0.5	0.1	0.0			0.0										100.0%
15-3	12.6%		100.0%	31.1%	68.9%	2.8		1.9	3.8	3.5	2.1	0.7	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0										100.0%
14-4	13.9%		99.9%	22.4%	77.5%	3.8		0.6	2.1	3.8	3.3	2.4	1.1	0.5	0.1	0.1	0.0							0.0		99.9%
13-5	14.4%		99.2%	13.7%	85.5%	5.1		0.1	0.5	2.2	2.8	3.3	2.6	1.4	0.8	0.4	0.1	0.0						0.1		99.1%
12-6	12.7%		97.2%	10.4%	86.9%	6.1		0.0	0.2	0.7	1.4	2.3	2.6	2.1	1.7	0.8	0.4	0.1						0.4		96.9%
11-7	10.0%		90.5%	6.4%	84.0%	7.3		0.0	0.0	0.2	0.4	1.0	1.5	1.8	1.8	1.3	0.9	0.2						1.0		89.8%
10-8	7.7%		77.2%	3.1%	74.1%	8.3			0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.5	1.0	1.3	1.2	1.0	0.6	0.0					1.7		76.5%
9-9	5.3%		61.7%	2.8%	59.0%	8.9					0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.6	0.7	0.8	0.5	0.0					2.0		60.6%
8-10	3.3%		30.4%	0.6%	29.8%	9.7							0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.0					2.3		30.0%
7-11	1.9%		13.4%	0.4%	13.0%	10.0								0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1						1.6		13.1%
6-12	1.0%		2.1%		2.1%	10.3											0.0	0.0						1.0		2.1%
5-13	0.7%		1.0%		1.0%	11.0												0.0						0.7		1.0%
4-14	0.1%																							0.1
3-15	0.1%																							0.1
2-16	0.1%																							0.1
1-17
0-18

Total	100%		88.9%	18.7%	70.2%	4.7		10.5	12.4	12.3	10.7	10.1	8.9	7.2	6.6	4.8	3.6	1.8	0.1					11.1		86.4%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.3%	100.0%	1.1	90.1	7.4	2.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.1%	100.0%	1.0	100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.0%	100.0%	1.2	83.3	16.7