IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Massachusetts
Mid-American
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	-0.9	#170
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	74.5	#42
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-0.8	#194

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+0.0	#167

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	8.6%	10.2%	5.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	13.5	13.1	13.9

.500 or above	73.4%	81.6%	58.6%
.500 or above in Conference	73.5%	78.7%	64.1%
Conference Champion	11.1%	13.5%	6.7%
Last Place in Conference	1.9%	1.3%	3.0%

First Four	0.2%	0.1%	0.3%
First Round	8.6%	10.2%	5.5%
Second Round	0.7%	0.9%	0.2%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Marshall (Home) - 64.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 1
Quad 2	1 - 2	1 - 3
Quad 3	4 - 5	4 - 8
Quad 4	13 - 4	17 - 12

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 03, 2025	185	Marshall	W	77-73	64%
Nov 08, 2025	296	Albany	W	79-69	81%
Nov 13, 2025	344	Le Moyne	W	84-70	89%
Nov 16, 2025	305	Central Connecticut St.	W	74-64	82%
Nov 21, 2025	123	College of Charleston	L	76-79	38%
Dec 03, 2025	178	Harvard	W	72-69	61%
Dec 06, 2025	301	Umass Lowell	W	82-72	81%
Dec 10, 2025	96	Boston College	L	72-75	39%
Dec 13, 2025	75	Florida St.	L	72-80	23%
Dec 20, 2025	127	Kent St.	L	71-72	50%
Dec 30, 2025	292	@ Eastern Michigan	W	77-74	61%
Jan 03, 2026	212	Bowling Green	W	77-72	67%
Jan 06, 2026	152	@ Ohio	L	76-80	36%
Jan 10, 2026	247	Ball St.	W	77-70	73%
Jan 13, 2026	282	@ Western Michigan	W	76-73	60%
Jan 17, 2026	314	@ Northern Illinois	W	78-73	67%
Jan 20, 2026	196	Toledo	W	80-76	64%
Jan 24, 2026	337	@ Buffalo	W	81-74	72%
Jan 27, 2026	125	@ Miami (OH)	L	73-79	30%
Jan 31, 2026	292	Eastern Michigan	W	80-71	78%
Feb 03, 2026	299	Central Michigan	W	78-68	79%
Feb 14, 2026	108	@ Akron	L	76-84	25%
Feb 17, 2026	125	Miami (OH)	L	76-77	50%
Feb 21, 2026	337	Buffalo	W	84-71	85%
Feb 24, 2026	247	@ Ball St.	W	74-73	53%
Feb 28, 2026	212	@ Bowling Green	L	74-75	47%
Mar 03, 2026	152	Ohio	W	79-77	56%
Projected Record						16 - 11	11 - 7

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Mid-American Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st													0.1	0.9	2.4	3.4	2.6	1.4	0.3		11.1	1st
2nd												0.2	1.8	4.3	3.9	2.1	0.4	0.0			12.7	2nd
3rd											0.2	2.2	4.6	4.6	1.3	0.1					13.0	3rd
4th										0.2	1.8	5.0	4.0	1.0	0.0						12.0	4th
5th								0.0	0.1	1.6	4.4	4.0	0.7	0.1							10.9	5th
6th								0.0	1.0	3.9	3.7	0.7	0.0								9.4	6th
7th							0.0	0.8	3.1	3.4	1.0	0.0	0.0								8.4	7th
8th						0.0	0.4	2.2	3.2	1.1	0.1	0.0									7.0	8th
9th						0.3	1.8	2.7	1.0	0.1	0.0										5.8	9th
10th					0.2	0.9	1.9	0.9	0.1												4.0	10th
11th				0.2	0.8	1.3	0.8	0.1													3.1	11th
12th			0.0	0.4	0.7	0.4	0.1														1.6	12th
13th	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.2	0.3	0.0															1.0	13th

Total	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.8	2.0	3.0	5.0	6.7	8.5	10.2	11.1	12.1	11.3	10.8	7.7	5.5	3.0	1.4	0.3			Total

Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.3		0.3
17-1	97.5%	1.4		1.2	0.2
16-2	85.8%	2.6		1.9	0.7	0.0
15-3	61.0%	3.4		1.9	1.3	0.2	0.0
14-4	31.5%	2.4		0.7	1.2	0.4	0.0
13-5	8.6%	0.9		0.2	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0
12-6	1.2%	0.1			0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	11.1%	11.1		6.1	3.8	1.0	0.2	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.3%		42.6%	40.1%	2.5%	9.8					0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0				0.2		4.1%
17-1	1.4%		43.3%	42.8%	0.5%	11.7											0.0	0.2	0.3	0.1	0.0			0.8		0.9%
16-2	3.0%		30.1%	30.1%		12.3												0.1	0.5	0.2	0.0	0.0		2.1
15-3	5.5%		25.4%	25.4%		12.6												0.1	0.6	0.6	0.2	0.0		4.1
14-4	7.7%		19.8%	19.8%		13.3												0.0	0.3	0.6	0.5	0.1		6.2
13-5	10.8%		14.1%	14.1%		13.7													0.2	0.5	0.6	0.2	0.0	9.3
12-6	11.3%		9.2%	9.2%		14.4													0.0	0.2	0.4	0.3	0.1	10.2
11-7	12.1%		5.3%	5.3%		14.9													0.0	0.1	0.3	0.2	0.1	11.5
10-8	11.1%		4.5%	4.5%		16.2													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.1	10.6
9-9	10.2%		1.8%	1.8%		15.4														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	10.1
8-10	8.5%		1.1%	1.1%		17.6															0.0	0.0	0.0	8.4
7-11	6.7%		0.1%	0.1%		15.0																0.0		6.7
6-12	5.0%																							5.0
5-13	3.0%																							3.0
4-14	2.0%																							2.0
3-15	0.8%																							0.8
2-16	0.3%																							0.3
1-17	0.1%																							0.1
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		8.6%	8.5%	0.0%	13.5					0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.5	1.9	2.4	2.1	1.3	0.4	91.4		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.0%	100.0%	7.2				20.0		20.0	20.0	20.0			20.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%	33.3%	10.0										33.3