Preseason Rankings
Mercyhurst
Northeast
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating-17.4#362
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace62.6#324
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-10.0#361
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-7.3#358
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.4% 3.6% 1.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.5 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 3.7% 28.6% 3.6%
.500 or above in Conference 8.1% 34.0% 8.0%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.0% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 41.0% 17.8% 41.1%
First Four1.4% 3.6% 1.4%
First Round0.6% 0.0% 0.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northwestern (Away) - 0.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 30 - 30 - 7
Quad 46 - 116 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 72   @ Northwestern L 50-78 0.4%   
  Nov 06, 2025 94   @ Loyola Chicago L 52-78 1%    
  Nov 12, 2025 352   @ Canisius L 61-69 25%    
  Nov 15, 2025 358   Morgan St. W 71-70 51%    
  Nov 20, 2025 125   @ Miami (OH) L 57-80 2%    
  Nov 23, 2025 185   @ Marshall L 58-77 5%    
  Nov 30, 2025 58   @ West Virginia L 48-78 0.5%   
  Dec 05, 2025 308   @ Lafayette L 58-70 15%    
  Dec 13, 2025 145   @ Davidson L 55-76 4%    
  Dec 17, 2025 64   @ Syracuse L 54-84 1%    
  Dec 20, 2025 334   Binghamton L 62-66 37%    
  Jan 02, 2026 350   Fairleigh Dickinson L 67-69 43%    
  Jan 10, 2026 335   @ Wagner L 51-61 21%    
  Jan 17, 2026 339   Stonehill L 62-65 40%    
  Jan 19, 2026 305   Central Connecticut St. L 59-65 30%    
  Jan 23, 2026 363   @ New Haven L 65-67 44%    
  Jan 25, 2026 351   Chicago St. L 67-69 45%    
  Jan 29, 2026 363   New Haven W 68-64 64%    
  Jan 31, 2026 351   @ Chicago St. L 64-72 26%    
  Feb 07, 2026 350   @ Fairleigh Dickinson L 64-72 26%    
  Feb 19, 2026 335   Wagner L 54-58 39%    
  Feb 26, 2026 305   @ Central Connecticut St. L 56-68 16%    
  Feb 28, 2026 339   @ Stonehill L 59-68 23%    
Projected Record 6 - 17 4 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.3 0.0 1.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 1.5 1.0 0.1 3.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 2.5 1.7 0.3 0.0 5.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.1 3.2 0.7 0.0 7.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.3 4.2 4.8 1.4 0.1 11.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.0 5.8 6.6 2.1 0.2 17.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 3.8 8.2 7.7 2.8 0.3 23.5 9th
10th 3.2 7.7 9.3 6.2 1.9 0.2 0.0 28.6 10th
Total 3.3 8.5 13.5 16.5 16.8 14.6 11.0 7.7 4.2 2.5 1.1 0.3 0.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 85.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-5 17.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 6.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 0.0% 14.3% 14.3% 16.0 0.0 0.0
11-5 0.3% 25.5% 25.5% 17.2 0.0 0.1 0.2
10-6 1.1% 16.0% 16.0% 18.6 0.0 0.2 0.9
9-7 2.5% 6.5% 6.5% 16.7 0.0 0.2 2.3
8-8 4.2% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.1 4.1
7-9 7.7% 5.6% 5.6% 16.0 0.4 7.3
6-10 11.0% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.3 10.7
5-11 14.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 14.5
4-12 16.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 16.8
3-13 16.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.5
2-14 13.5% 13.5
1-15 8.5% 8.5
0-16 3.3% 3.3
Total 100% 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 16.5 0.0 1.4 98.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.5%