Preseason Rankings
Mississippi St.
Southeastern
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+13.6#32
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.4#136
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+7.8#28
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.8#43
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
#1 Seed 2.3% 2.4% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 5.9% 6.1% 0.9%
Top 4 Seed 17.6% 18.2% 3.9%
Top 6 Seed 32.3% 33.2% 11.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 60.5% 61.6% 33.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 59.1% 60.2% 33.1%
Average Seed 6.2 6.2 7.5
.500 or above 74.9% 76.2% 44.5%
.500 or above in Conference 50.7% 51.6% 28.4%
Conference Champion 3.9% 4.0% 0.9%
Last Place in Conference 6.9% 6.6% 14.8%
First Four5.6% 5.6% 5.1%
First Round57.6% 58.6% 31.1%
Second Round40.3% 41.3% 16.1%
Sweet Sixteen18.0% 18.5% 6.4%
Elite Eight7.5% 7.7% 1.8%
Final Four2.9% 3.0% 1.1%
Championship Game1.1% 1.1% 0.4%
National Champion0.4% 0.4% 0.2%

Next Game: North Alabama (Home) - 96.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 36 - 10
Quad 26 - 311 - 12
Quad 33 - 014 - 13
Quad 45 - 019 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2025 191   North Alabama W 82-63 96%    
  Nov 10, 2025 20   Iowa St. L 71-74 39%    
  Nov 15, 2025 250   SE Louisiana W 82-61 97%    
  Nov 20, 2025 57   Kansas St. W 73-69 64%    
  Nov 24, 2025 317   New Orleans W 89-64 99%    
  Nov 28, 2025 46   SMU W 78-73 65%    
  Dec 03, 2025 79   @ Georgia Tech W 76-72 62%    
  Dec 07, 2025 77   San Francisco W 76-70 70%    
  Dec 13, 2025 89   Utah W 78-70 75%    
  Dec 16, 2025 297   LIU Brooklyn W 79-55 98%    
  Dec 20, 2025 51   Memphis W 79-73 69%    
  Dec 29, 2025 289   Alabama St. W 84-60 98%    
  Jan 03, 2026 38   @ Texas L 72-75 41%    
  Jan 07, 2026 47   Oklahoma W 77-72 66%    
  Jan 10, 2026 7   @ Kentucky L 73-82 23%    
  Jan 13, 2026 19   Alabama W 84-83 50%    
  Jan 17, 2026 30   Mississippi W 75-72 58%    
  Jan 21, 2026 36   @ Texas A&M L 70-73 40%    
  Jan 24, 2026 41   Vanderbilt W 78-74 62%    
  Jan 28, 2026 53   @ LSU W 74-73 51%    
  Jan 31, 2026 37   @ Missouri L 75-78 41%    
  Feb 07, 2026 17   Arkansas L 74-75 49%    
  Feb 11, 2026 16   Tennessee L 67-68 47%    
  Feb 14, 2026 30   @ Mississippi L 72-75 39%    
  Feb 18, 2026 22   Auburn W 75-74 53%    
  Feb 21, 2026 71   @ South Carolina W 71-68 59%    
  Feb 25, 2026 19   @ Alabama L 80-86 32%    
  Feb 28, 2026 37   Missouri W 78-75 60%    
  Mar 03, 2026 5   @ Florida L 71-82 19%    
  Mar 07, 2026 52   Georgia W 75-69 70%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.1 3.9 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 1.9 1.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 5.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 2.3 2.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 6.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.4 2.8 0.8 0.1 6.6 4th
5th 0.1 2.0 3.5 1.3 0.1 7.0 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 3.9 1.8 0.2 7.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 3.0 3.1 0.4 7.0 7th
8th 0.1 2.1 4.1 1.0 0.0 7.3 8th
9th 1.0 4.2 2.3 0.2 7.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 2.7 3.4 0.4 6.8 10th
11th 0.2 1.8 3.9 1.3 0.0 7.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.9 3.5 2.1 0.2 6.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.7 2.6 2.7 0.5 0.0 6.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.6 1.9 2.3 0.9 0.1 5.9 14th
15th 0.0 0.5 1.5 1.9 0.9 0.1 5.0 15th
16th 0.2 0.6 1.3 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.9 16th
Total 0.2 0.7 1.8 3.3 5.1 7.1 9.2 10.4 11.6 11.2 10.8 9.0 7.4 5.3 3.3 2.3 1.0 0.4 0.1 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 96.3% 0.4    0.3 0.0
16-2 87.6% 0.8    0.6 0.2 0.0
15-3 60.1% 1.4    0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-4 24.7% 0.8    0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-5 7.1% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.9% 3.9 2.1 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 46.5% 53.5% 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.4% 100.0% 29.6% 70.4% 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.0% 100.0% 29.1% 70.9% 1.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 2.3% 100.0% 21.7% 78.3% 2.0 0.7 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 3.3% 100.0% 15.4% 84.6% 2.8 0.4 0.9 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 5.3% 100.0% 12.5% 87.5% 3.6 0.2 0.8 1.5 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 7.4% 100.0% 6.5% 93.5% 4.7 0.1 0.3 1.3 1.8 1.8 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-7 9.0% 99.2% 4.8% 94.4% 5.7 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.1 1.9 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.2%
10-8 10.8% 96.1% 2.0% 94.1% 6.8 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.2 2.5 1.7 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.4 96.0%
9-9 11.2% 88.4% 1.6% 86.9% 7.8 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.0 2.1 1.8 1.2 0.6 0.0 1.3 88.2%
8-10 11.6% 62.7% 0.5% 62.2% 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.6 2.0 1.2 0.1 4.3 62.5%
7-11 10.4% 32.4% 0.2% 32.2% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.1 0.1 7.0 32.3%
6-12 9.2% 10.1% 0.0% 10.1% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 8.3 10.1%
5-13 7.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.7% 10.6 0.0 0.0 7.0 0.7%
4-14 5.1% 5.1
3-15 3.3% 3.3
2-16 1.8% 1.8
1-17 0.7% 0.7
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 60.5% 3.5% 57.0% 6.2 2.3 3.6 5.3 6.4 7.1 7.6 7.4 6.2 5.5 5.3 3.5 0.3 39.5 59.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0