Preseason Rankings
New Haven
Northeast
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating-18.5#363
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.0#147
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-10.4#362
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-8.1#362
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% n/a 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% n/a 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% n/a 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.3% n/a 1.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% n/a 0.0%
Average Seed 16.1 n/a 16.0
.500 or above 2.4% n/a 2.4%
.500 or above in Conference 21.5% n/a 21.5%
Conference Champion 1.9% n/a 1.9%
Last Place in Conference 32.1% n/a 32.1%
First Four1.3% n/a 1.3%
First Round0.5% n/a 0.5%
Second Round0.0% n/a 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% n/a 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% n/a 0.0%
Final Four0.0% n/a 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% n/a 0.0%
National Champion0.0% n/a 0.0%

Next Game: Connecticut (Away) - 0.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 30 - 30 - 7
Quad 46 - 166 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 4   @ Connecticut L 46-90 0.1%   
  Nov 07, 2025 267   Columbia L 71-81 19%    
  Nov 08, 2025 90   Penn St. L 62-83 3%    
  Nov 10, 2025 301   @ Umass Lowell L 66-80 11%    
  Nov 15, 2025 341   Delaware St. L 71-75 35%    
  Nov 18, 2025 102   @ Seton Hall L 52-78 1%    
  Dec 06, 2025 96   @ Boston College L 57-84 1%    
  Dec 10, 2025 357   @ NJIT L 63-70 26%    
  Dec 22, 2025 163   @ Fordham L 63-84 4%    
  Dec 29, 2025 41   @ Vanderbilt L 57-91 0.2%   
  Jan 02, 2026 339   @ Stonehill L 62-72 19%    
  Jan 04, 2026 305   @ Central Connecticut St. L 59-72 13%    
  Jan 08, 2026 344   @ Le Moyne L 69-79 20%    
  Jan 10, 2026 350   Fairleigh Dickinson L 70-73 39%    
  Jan 17, 2026 335   Wagner L 57-62 34%    
  Jan 19, 2026 351   @ Chicago St. L 67-76 23%    
  Jan 23, 2026 362   Mercyhurst W 67-65 56%    
  Jan 25, 2026 345   St. Francis (PA) L 67-71 38%    
  Jan 29, 2026 362   @ Mercyhurst L 64-68 36%    
  Jan 31, 2026 345   @ St. Francis (PA) L 64-74 22%    
  Feb 05, 2026 297   @ LIU Brooklyn L 58-72 12%    
  Feb 07, 2026 351   Chicago St. L 70-73 41%    
  Feb 12, 2026 305   Central Connecticut St. L 62-69 28%    
  Feb 14, 2026 297   LIU Brooklyn L 61-69 25%    
  Feb 19, 2026 339   Stonehill L 65-69 36%    
  Feb 21, 2026 350   @ Fairleigh Dickinson L 67-76 23%    
  Feb 26, 2026 335   @ Wagner L 54-65 19%    
  Feb 28, 2026 344   Le Moyne L 72-76 38%    
Projected Record 6 - 22 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.9 1st
2nd 0.3 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 1.8 1.7 0.7 0.3 0.0 5.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 2.3 2.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 6.4 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 3.3 3.0 0.9 0.1 8.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 3.6 4.1 1.1 0.1 9.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.3 4.1 4.4 1.7 0.1 0.0 11.8 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 4.6 5.5 1.9 0.1 13.7 8th
9th 0.3 2.3 5.8 6.0 2.1 0.2 16.7 9th
10th 2.6 6.2 7.0 4.8 1.8 0.1 22.6 10th
Total 2.6 6.5 9.4 12.2 13.8 13.0 11.1 9.9 7.0 5.7 3.8 2.2 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-1 88.9% 0.2    0.2 0.0
14-2 73.3% 0.3    0.2 0.1
13-3 59.6% 0.5    0.3 0.1
12-4 35.2% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.0
11-5 14.2% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-6 3.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 1.9% 1.9 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.0% 33.3% 33.3% 16.0 0.0 0.0
15-1 0.2% 22.2% 22.2% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-2 0.4% 20.6% 20.6% 17.4 0.0 0.1 0.3
13-3 0.8% 5.5% 5.5% 16.0 0.0 0.7
12-4 1.5% 8.3% 8.3% 16.0 0.1 1.4
11-5 2.2% 6.5% 6.5% 16.0 0.1 2.0
10-6 3.8% 5.2% 5.2% 16.0 0.2 3.6
9-7 5.7% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.2 5.5
8-8 7.0% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.2 6.8
7-9 9.9% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.2 9.7
6-10 11.1% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 11.0
5-11 13.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 12.9
4-12 13.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.7
3-13 12.2% 12.2
2-14 9.4% 9.4
1-15 6.5% 6.5
0-16 2.6% 2.6
Total 100% 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 16.1 0.0 1.3 98.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.8%