Preseason Rankings
San Diego St.
Mountain West
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+13.4#35
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.3#258
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.8#59
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+8.7#13
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.4% 1.4% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 3.8% 3.8% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 10.8% 11.0% 0.7%
Top 6 Seed 19.7% 20.0% 3.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 56.4% 57.0% 30.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 35.4% 36.0% 13.9%
Average Seed 7.6 7.5 9.4
.500 or above 96.4% 96.7% 84.1%
.500 or above in Conference 95.3% 95.4% 86.9%
Conference Champion 43.5% 43.9% 25.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.4%
First Four5.6% 5.7% 4.2%
First Round53.7% 54.2% 29.0%
Second Round33.1% 33.5% 13.7%
Sweet Sixteen13.6% 13.8% 3.9%
Elite Eight5.9% 6.0% 1.4%
Final Four2.3% 2.4% 0.4%
Championship Game0.9% 0.9% 0.0%
National Champion0.3% 0.3% 0.0%

Next Game: Long Beach St. (Home) - 98.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b2 - 22 - 4
Quad 25 - 28 - 6
Quad 38 - 116 - 8
Quad 47 - 023 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2025 264   Long Beach St. W 75-53 98%    
  Nov 09, 2025 287   Idaho St. W 77-53 99%    
  Nov 18, 2025 130   Troy W 72-58 91%    
  Nov 24, 2025 6   Michigan L 67-73 28%    
  Nov 25, 2025 28   Oregon L 68-69 46%    
  Dec 03, 2025 118   Utah Valley W 74-60 89%    
  Dec 10, 2025 211   Lamar W 73-54 95%    
  Dec 17, 2025 277   Air Force W 75-52 98%    
  Dec 20, 2025 11   Arizona L 69-74 35%    
  Dec 30, 2025 159   @ San Jose St. W 72-61 82%    
  Jan 03, 2026 62   Boise St. W 70-63 73%    
  Jan 06, 2026 104   @ Nevada W 66-60 68%    
  Jan 10, 2026 186   Fresno St. W 80-62 94%    
  Jan 14, 2026 157   @ Wyoming W 69-59 81%    
  Jan 17, 2026 81   New Mexico W 77-67 78%    
  Jan 21, 2026 78   @ Grand Canyon W 72-69 60%    
  Jan 24, 2026 86   @ UNLV W 68-64 62%    
  Jan 28, 2026 98   Colorado St. W 72-61 83%    
  Jan 31, 2026 54   @ Utah St. W 70-69 52%    
  Feb 03, 2026 157   Wyoming W 72-56 91%    
  Feb 07, 2026 277   @ Air Force W 72-55 91%    
  Feb 14, 2026 104   Nevada W 69-57 83%    
  Feb 17, 2026 78   Grand Canyon W 75-66 78%    
  Feb 21, 2026 98   @ Colorado St. W 69-64 67%    
  Feb 25, 2026 54   Utah St. W 73-67 70%    
  Feb 28, 2026 81   @ New Mexico W 74-70 61%    
  Mar 03, 2026 62   @ Boise St. W 67-66 53%    
  Mar 06, 2026 86   UNLV W 71-61 78%    
Projected Record 21 - 7 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.2 7.2 10.8 10.6 7.6 3.1 43.5 1st
2nd 0.0 1.1 4.2 6.4 5.7 2.5 0.4 20.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 3.5 4.8 2.5 0.6 0.0 12.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 2.7 3.3 1.2 0.2 0.0 8.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.8 2.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 5.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 1.5 1.6 0.6 0.0 4.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.0 0.4 0.0 2.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.2 3.2 4.7 6.6 8.8 11.1 12.3 13.6 13.3 11.0 7.6 3.1 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 3.1    3.1
19-1 100.0% 7.6    7.5 0.1
18-2 96.7% 10.6    9.4 1.1 0.0
17-3 81.2% 10.8    8.1 2.6 0.2
16-4 53.0% 7.2    3.9 2.7 0.5 0.0
15-5 26.3% 3.2    1.1 1.4 0.6 0.1
14-6 7.0% 0.8    0.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 43.5% 43.5 33.3 8.4 1.5 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 3.1% 99.8% 75.2% 24.6% 2.6 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.1%
19-1 7.6% 97.8% 60.2% 37.6% 4.3 0.5 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 94.5%
18-2 11.0% 94.2% 52.4% 41.8% 6.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.6 87.7%
17-3 13.3% 84.9% 43.9% 41.0% 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.5 1.6 1.8 2.1 1.9 0.7 2.0 73.0%
16-4 13.6% 70.7% 35.6% 35.1% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.5 1.9 3.0 1.5 0.0 4.0 54.6%
15-5 12.3% 54.4% 28.9% 25.4% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 2.5 2.0 0.1 5.6 35.8%
14-6 11.1% 37.2% 23.6% 13.6% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.5 1.9 0.1 7.0 17.8%
13-7 8.8% 23.1% 16.3% 6.8% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 0.1 0.0 6.8 8.1%
12-8 6.6% 14.7% 12.1% 2.7% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 5.6 3.0%
11-9 4.7% 8.8% 8.2% 0.6% 11.3 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 4.3 0.7%
10-10 3.2% 5.8% 5.5% 0.2% 11.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.0 0.2%
9-11 2.2% 3.5% 3.5% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1
8-12 1.3% 4.7% 4.7% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3
7-13 0.7% 3.1% 3.1% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
6-14 0.3% 2.0% 2.0% 32.0 0.0 0.3
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 56.4% 32.5% 23.9% 7.6 1.4 2.4 2.8 4.3 4.3 4.6 4.9 5.4 6.7 10.4 8.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 43.6 35.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 1.6 49.1 40.2 9.2 1.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 2.5 9.1 54.5 18.2 18.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 2.0 40.0 20.0 40.0