IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
St. Thomas
Summit League
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	+0.5	#149
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	69.2	#142
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+1.9	#115

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-1.4	#215

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.3%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	26.8%	37.3%	25.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.1	12.9	13.9

.500 or above	85.0%	96.3%	83.7%
.500 or above in Conference	89.0%	95.0%	88.3%
Conference Champion	37.9%	52.6%	36.3%
Last Place in Conference	1.1%	0.4%	1.1%

First Four	1.6%	0.6%	1.7%
First Round	26.9%	37.6%	25.7%
Second Round	1.7%	3.5%	1.5%
Sweet Sixteen	0.2%	0.4%	0.2%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: St. Mary's (Away) - 9.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 3	3 - 4	4 - 6
Quad 4	16 - 4	20 - 10

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 03, 2025	49	@ St. Mary's	L	58-72	10%
Nov 08, 2025	353	Army	W	82-65	94%
Nov 10, 2025	128	@ Washington St.	L	75-80	34%
Nov 13, 2025	306	Green Bay	W	82-70	85%
Nov 15, 2025	228	@ Southeast Missouri St.	W	74-73	55%
Nov 21, 2025	194	Northern Colorado	W	77-74	60%
Nov 22, 2025	336	Cal St. Fullerton	W	77-66	84%
Nov 23, 2025	265	@ Portland	W	77-74	61%
Dec 03, 2025	147	@ Montana St.	L	70-73	39%
Dec 06, 2025	281	Weber St.	W	76-66	81%
Dec 13, 2025	198	@ UNC Asheville	L	75-76	48%
Dec 20, 2025	256	UC Riverside	W	77-68	77%
Jan 03, 2026	322	Denver	W	79-66	87%
Jan 07, 2026	294	South Dakota	W	90-79	82%
Jan 10, 2026	318	@ Oral Roberts	W	77-71	71%
Jan 15, 2026	315	@ North Dakota	W	79-73	70%
Jan 17, 2026	215	@ North Dakota St.	W	72-71	51%
Jan 22, 2026	155	South Dakota St.	W	77-74	61%
Jan 24, 2026	294	@ South Dakota	W	87-82	66%
Jan 29, 2026	315	North Dakota	W	82-70	85%
Feb 01, 2026	300	UMKC	W	73-62	82%
Feb 04, 2026	155	@ South Dakota St.	L	74-77	41%
Feb 07, 2026	318	Oral Roberts	W	80-68	85%
Feb 12, 2026	177	@ Nebraska Omaha	L	75-76	45%
Feb 14, 2026	300	@ UMKC	W	70-65	67%
Feb 21, 2026	322	@ Denver	W	76-69	72%
Feb 26, 2026	215	North Dakota St.	W	75-68	70%
Feb 28, 2026	177	Nebraska Omaha	W	78-73	66%
Projected Record						18 - 10	11 - 5

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Summit League Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st										0.0	0.3	2.4	6.7	9.9	9.7	6.2	2.6		37.9	1st
2nd									0.0	0.6	3.8	7.6	7.0	3.0	0.5				22.6	2nd
3rd								0.0	0.7	3.7	5.9	3.5	0.7	0.0					14.6	3rd
4th							0.0	0.5	3.2	4.4	1.9	0.2							10.2	4th
5th						0.0	0.4	2.3	2.7	0.9	0.1								6.5	5th
6th					0.0	0.3	1.5	1.7	0.5	0.0									4.0	6th
7th				0.0	0.2	0.8	1.0	0.3											2.4	7th
8th			0.0	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.1												1.2	8th
9th	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0												0.6	9th

Total	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.9	1.6	3.1	4.9	7.2	9.7	11.9	13.7	14.5	13.0	10.3	6.2	2.6			Total

Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0	100.0%	2.6		2.6
15-1	100.0%	6.2		6.1	0.1
14-2	94.9%	9.7		8.4	1.3	0.0
13-3	76.6%	9.9		6.9	2.8	0.2
12-4	46.6%	6.7		3.2	2.9	0.6	0.0
11-5	17.2%	2.4		0.6	1.1	0.6	0.1
10-6	2.1%	0.3		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
9-7	0.2%	0.0				0.0	0.0		0.0
8-8	0.0%

Total	37.9%	37.9		27.8	8.3	1.5	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0	2.6%		62.1%	61.5%	0.5%	11.5					0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.6	0.5	0.3	0.0	0.0		1.0		1.4%
15-1	6.2%		58.0%	58.0%		12.5									0.0		0.0	0.4	1.5	1.2	0.5	0.0	0.0	2.6
14-2	10.3%		49.1%	49.1%		13.0												0.1	1.4	2.0	1.2	0.2	0.0	5.2
13-3	13.0%		39.6%	39.6%		13.7												0.0	0.7	1.8	1.8	0.8	0.1	7.8
12-4	14.5%		29.1%	29.1%		14.5													0.2	0.9	1.7	1.2	0.3	10.3
11-5	13.7%		23.1%	23.1%		15.7													0.0	0.4	1.0	1.3	0.7	10.5
10-6	11.9%		16.3%	16.3%		16.5													0.0	0.1	0.3	1.0	0.7	10.0
9-7	9.7%		10.9%	10.9%		17.9														0.0	0.1	0.4	0.7	8.6
8-8	7.2%		7.6%	7.6%		16.9														0.0	0.0	0.2	0.4	6.6
7-9	4.9%		5.0%	5.0%		18.5																0.1	0.2	4.6
6-10	3.1%		5.2%	5.2%		16.6																0.0	0.2	2.9
5-11	1.6%		3.5%	3.5%		16.0																	0.1	1.6
4-12	0.9%																							0.9
3-13	0.3%																							0.3
2-14	0.1%																							0.1
1-15	0.0%																							0.0
0-16	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		26.8%	26.8%	0.0%	14.1					0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	1.2	4.3	6.6	6.7	5.4	3.3	73.2		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.1%	100.0%	7.5				12.4	37.2			12.4		12.4	13.3	12.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%	50.0%	10.0										50.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.0%