IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Stony Brook
Colonial Athletic
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	-7.7	#298
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	62.5	#327
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-3.0	#259

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-4.7	#317

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	1.1%	1.4%	0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.0	14.3	14.7

.500 or above	17.4%	24.0%	7.9%
.500 or above in Conference	21.8%	26.9%	14.5%
Conference Champion	1.0%	1.4%	0.4%
Last Place in Conference	19.7%	15.3%	26.0%

First Four	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%
First Round	1.0%	1.3%	0.6%
Second Round	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Maine (Home) - 59.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 3	0 - 3
Quad 3	2 - 8	2 - 12
Quad 4	8 - 8	10 - 19

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 08, 2025	285	Maine	W	66-64	59%
Nov 15, 2025	97	@ Yale	L	61-77	7%
Nov 20, 2025	169	Brown	L	64-68	36%
Nov 24, 2025	219	Pacific	L	66-70	35%
Nov 28, 2025	135	@ Loyola Marymount	L	62-74	14%
Dec 06, 2025	116	@ Duquesne	L	59-73	11%
Dec 09, 2025	267	Columbia	W	75-74	54%
Dec 13, 2025	299	Central Michigan	W	69-66	61%
Dec 17, 2025	296	Albany	W	71-68	59%
Dec 21, 2025	237	@ Marist	L	59-65	29%
Dec 29, 2025	235	@ Hampton	L	63-70	28%
Dec 31, 2025	226	@ William & Mary	L	71-78	27%
Jan 03, 2026	349	N.C. A&T	W	74-66	74%
Jan 08, 2026	225	@ Drexel	L	59-66	27%
Jan 10, 2026	120	UNC Wilmington	L	64-71	27%
Jan 15, 2026	182	Hofstra	L	61-64	40%
Jan 17, 2026	123	College of Charleston	L	69-76	27%
Jan 22, 2026	218	@ Northeastern	L	65-72	27%
Jan 29, 2026	200	@ Campbell	L	63-71	25%
Jan 31, 2026	224	@ Elon	L	63-70	28%
Feb 05, 2026	210	Monmouth	L	68-70	45%
Feb 07, 2026	218	Northeastern	L	68-69	45%
Feb 12, 2026	136	@ Towson	L	59-71	15%
Feb 16, 2026	225	Drexel	L	62-63	46%
Feb 21, 2026	235	Hampton	L	66-67	47%
Feb 26, 2026	210	@ Monmouth	L	65-73	26%
Feb 28, 2026	182	@ Hofstra	L	58-67	23%
Mar 03, 2026	136	Towson	L	62-68	30%
Projected Record						10 - 18	6 - 12

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.0	0.2	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0		1.0	1st
2nd											0.0	0.2	0.4	0.7	0.3	0.1	0.0				1.7	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.1	0.8	1.2	0.4	0.1						2.7	3rd
4th										0.1	1.0	1.7	0.7	0.1							3.6	4th
5th									0.1	1.2	2.1	1.0	0.1								4.6	5th
6th								0.0	1.0	2.6	1.6	0.2									5.5	6th
7th							0.0	0.7	3.0	2.6	0.4	0.0									6.7	7th
8th						0.0	0.6	2.7	3.5	0.8	0.1										7.7	8th
9th					0.0	0.4	3.0	4.2	1.5	0.1											9.2	9th
10th					0.5	3.3	5.5	2.4	0.2												11.9	10th
11th			0.1	1.2	4.0	5.2	3.0	0.4													13.9	11th
12th		0.7	3.0	6.0	6.1	2.7	0.5	0.0													19.1	12th
13th	1.2	3.3	3.9	2.6	1.1	0.2	0.0														12.3	13th

Total	1.2	4.0	7.0	9.9	11.8	11.9	12.6	10.6	9.3	7.5	5.4	3.9	2.4	1.4	0.8	0.2	0.2	0.0	0.0			Total

Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-1	100.0%	0.0		0.0
16-2	95.5%	0.1		0.1	0.0
15-3	68.7%	0.2		0.1	0.0	0.0
14-4	46.1%	0.4		0.2	0.2	0.0	0.0
13-5	16.2%	0.2		0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-6	1.2%	0.0		0.0	0.0			0.0
11-7	0.2%	0.0				0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	1.0%	1.0		0.6	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.0%																		0.0
17-1	0.0%		28.6%	28.6%		11.5												0.0	0.0					0.0
16-2	0.2%		22.7%	22.7%		12.4												0.0	0.0	0.0				0.1
15-3	0.2%		28.7%	28.7%		13.1													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.2
14-4	0.8%		17.1%	17.1%		13.7													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.6
13-5	1.4%		11.3%	11.3%		13.6													0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.3
12-6	2.4%		7.6%	7.6%		14.5														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	2.2
11-7	3.9%		2.7%	2.7%		15.7														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	3.8
10-8	5.4%		2.4%	2.4%		14.9														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	5.2
9-9	7.5%		1.1%	1.1%		19.1														0.0		0.1	0.0	7.4
8-10	9.3%		0.5%	0.5%		18.3																0.0	0.0	9.2
7-11	10.6%		0.5%	0.5%		18.0																	0.1	10.5
6-12	12.6%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	12.5
5-13	11.9%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	11.9
4-14	11.8%																							11.8
3-15	9.9%																							9.9
2-16	7.0%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	7.0
1-17	4.0%																							4.0
0-18	1.2%																							1.2

Total	100%		1.1%	1.1%	0.0%	15.0												0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.3	98.9		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%