Louisville
Men - Women
2014 - 2015 - 2016
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
14  Edwin Kibichiy JR 31:13
25  Ernest Kibet SR 31:20
51  Japhet Kipkoech SR 31:33
104  Calvin Chemoiywo JR 31:51
365  George Yator JR 32:42
1,236  Daniel Fleace FR 34:07
1,240  Matt Stephenson JR 34:07
1,323  Kyle Covert SR 34:16
National Rank #7 of 308
Southeast Region Rank #1 of 47
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 94.6%
Most Likely Finish 8th at Nationals


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 8.7%
Top 10 at Nationals 51.0%
Top 20 at Nationals 89.5%


Regional Champion 36.0%
Top 5 in Regional 94.1%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Edwin Kibichiy Ernest Kibet Japhet Kipkoech Calvin Chemoiywo George Yator Daniel Fleace Matt Stephenson Kyle Covert
Greater Louisville Classic (Gold) 10/03 531 31:31 31:56 31:33 32:08 33:50 32:41 34:57
D1 Pre-Nationals (Red) 10/17 582 31:25 31:50 31:35 32:16 34:14 34:29 33:41
ACC Championships 10/30 453 30:55 31:31 31:34 31:43 34:07 34:36 34:16
Southeast Region Championships 11/13 321 30:52 31:05 31:38 31:28 32:20 34:37 33:52
NCAA Championship 11/21 411 31:21 31:00 31:26 31:44 33:09 34:03 34:27





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 94.6% 11.0 351 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.6 4.8 7.8 9.0 9.1 8.9 7.6 7.4 6.2 5.3 4.5 3.5 3.5 2.6 2.2 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
Region Championship 100% 2.5 97 36.0 22.2 15.4 11.6 9.0 5.0 0.8 0.1



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Edwin Kibichiy 99.7% 21.2 0.4 1.6 1.9 3.0 3.0 3.5 3.1 3.0 3.1 3.2 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.5 2.3 2.6 2.3 2.0 2.1 1.6 1.5 1.6 2.0 1.6
Ernest Kibet 98.9% 31.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.1 2.4 2.1 2.6 2.1 2.2 2.2 1.8 2.5 2.1 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.9
Japhet Kipkoech 96.1% 51.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.0 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.1 1.2
Calvin Chemoiywo 94.7% 93.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
George Yator 94.6% 200.7
Daniel Fleace 94.8% 250.1
Matt Stephenson 94.8% 250.0


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Edwin Kibichiy 3.1 14.8 20.3 13.7 9.4 6.8 5.3 4.4 3.7 3.1 2.6 2.5 2.2 1.9 1.2 1.2 0.9 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.1
Ernest Kibet 5.0 4.6 12.1 12.6 11.6 8.9 7.3 5.8 5.3 3.9 3.8 3.2 3.0 2.3 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.4 1.2 0.9 0.8 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5
Japhet Kipkoech 9.0 0.4 2.4 5.4 7.0 7.4 7.4 7.6 5.9 6.3 5.4 5.3 4.0 3.8 3.9 3.2 2.4 2.8 2.2 1.7 2.1 1.6 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.2
Calvin Chemoiywo 17.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.1 2.6 3.7 4.3 4.6 4.6 4.7 5.6 5.3 4.6 4.4 4.5 4.3 4.1 3.4 3.6 3.1 2.5 3.0
George Yator 48.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3
Daniel Fleace 129.1
Matt Stephenson 129.9




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 36.0% 100.0% 36.0 36.0 1
2 22.2% 100.0% 22.2 22.2 2
3 15.4% 96.7% 2.0 1.3 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.2 0.3 0.5 14.9 3
4 11.6% 92.2% 0.5 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.9 10.7 4
5 9.0% 83.7% 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.5 7.5 5
6 5.0% 63.1% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 1.9 3.2 6
7 0.8% 18.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.1 7
8 0.1% 0.1 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
36 36
37 37
38 38
39 39
40 40
41 41
42 42
43 43
44 44
45 45
46 46
47 47
Total 100% 94.6% 36.0 22.2 2.0 1.8 2.1 2.0 2.5 2.7 2.6 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.6 2.6 5.4 58.2 36.4




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Mississippi 91.7% 1.0 0.9
Florida State 91.5% 1.0 0.9
Eastern Kentucky 65.9% 1.0 0.7
Illinois 47.5% 1.0 0.5
Texas 38.3% 1.0 0.4
Southern Utah 36.0% 1.0 0.4
Minnesota 25.4% 1.0 0.3
Eastern Michigan 22.0% 1.0 0.2
Florida 8.5% 1.0 0.1
Notre Dame 8.2% 1.0 0.1
Wisconsin 7.0% 1.0 0.1
Georgia 6.3% 1.0 0.1
Penn State 3.3% 1.0 0.0
Cornell 3.0% 1.0 0.0
Stephen F. Austin 3.0% 1.0 0.0
Georgia Tech 2.3% 2.0 0.0
Purdue 2.1% 1.0 0.0
Washington St. 0.7% 1.0 0.0
North Texas 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Yale 0.3% 1.0 0.0
Kentucky 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Duke 0.0% 2.0 0.0
San Francisco 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 4.7
Minimum 1.0
Maximum 10.0