Iona
Men - Women
2016 - 2017 - 2018
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RankNameGradeRating
73  Johannes Motschmann SR 31:38
112  Gilbert Kirui SR 31:50
120  Jack O'Leary FR 31:52
127  Liam Dee JR 31:53
169  Chartt Miller SR 32:04
172  Andrew Tario SR 32:04
402  Ehab El-Sandali FR 32:39
867  Alex Carter JR 33:28
1,115  Christian Alberico SO 33:48
2,153  Danny Galvin SO 35:26
2,505  Brian Warsh SO 36:25
2,590  Jac Hopkins SO 36:47
2,779  Robert Kirsty SR 37:52
2,951  Tim Susko FR 40:52
National Rank #17 of 315
Northeast Region Rank #2 of 42
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 97.5%
Most Likely Finish 13th at Nationals


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 2.9%
Top 10 at Nationals 24.4%
Top 20 at Nationals 83.4%


Regional Champion 15.3%
Top 5 in Regional 100.0%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Johannes Motschmann Gilbert Kirui Jack O'Leary Liam Dee Chartt Miller Andrew Tario Ehab El-Sandali Alex Carter Christian Alberico Danny Galvin Brian Warsh
Iona College Meet of Champions 09/15 735 31:31 31:47 32:51 33:31 32:57 35:48
Nuttycombe Invitational 10/13 618 31:32 31:50 32:38 31:56 32:38 34:40 34:03
NYC Metropolitan Championship 10/13 37:03
MAAC Championship 10/28 607 32:00 32:00 32:11 32:10 32:00 32:19 33:32 33:16 35:31 36:25
Northeast Region Championships 11/10 412 31:21 31:45 32:17 31:42 31:49 32:01 32:24





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 97.5% 14.6 409 0.2 0.6 0.8 1.4 2.3 3.2 4.4 5.9 5.9 6.3 6.3 6.9 6.1 6.8 5.9 6.0 5.9 4.4 4.6 3.5 2.7 2.0 2.0 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1
Region Championship 100% 1.9 53 15.3 81.0 3.8



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Johannes Motschmann 98.7% 68.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6
Gilbert Kirui 98.0% 96.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Jack O'Leary 97.9% 102.5 0.1 0.1 0.1
Liam Dee 98.1% 103.0 0.1
Chartt Miller 97.6% 130.9 0.1
Andrew Tario 97.7% 132.7
Ehab El-Sandali 97.5% 210.2


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Johannes Motschmann 4.7 1.2 10.1 17.3 14.0 10.5 8.7 5.5 4.5 3.1 3.5 3.1 2.3 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.0 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6
Gilbert Kirui 8.6 0.2 1.1 4.8 7.2 7.4 11.0 7.6 6.6 6.7 4.0 4.4 4.5 3.8 3.3 2.8 2.5 2.3 2.1 1.8 1.5 0.9 1.6 1.1 1.3 1.0
Jack O'Leary 9.4 1.3 4.3 6.1 7.9 8.3 7.4 6.5 6.5 5.2 4.9 4.3 3.6 2.7 2.9 2.8 2.5 1.9 1.9 2.4 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.2
Liam Dee 9.8 0.1 0.7 2.8 5.9 8.2 7.8 8.0 5.8 5.9 6.3 5.8 4.3 3.4 3.7 2.6 2.6 2.7 1.9 2.2 2.1 1.3 2.0 1.6 1.7 1.0
Chartt Miller 14.6 0.1 0.2 0.7 2.5 3.3 4.1 5.7 6.0 5.9 4.6 5.4 4.1 4.8 4.8 3.7 4.2 3.4 3.3 2.9 2.7 2.7 1.8 2.0 2.0
Andrew Tario 14.6 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.3 3.1 3.7 5.2 5.3 6.1 6.1 4.9 4.6 5.3 4.4 3.9 3.7 4.1 3.9 3.3 2.4 2.2 1.9 2.1 2.0
Ehab El-Sandali 36.8 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.1 1.6 2.0 2.3 1.9 2.7 2.2




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 15.3% 100.0% 15.3 15.3 1
2 81.0% 100.0% 81.0 81.0 2
3 3.8% 33.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 2.5 1.3 3
4 4
5 5
6 6
7 7
8 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
36 36
37 37
38 38
39 39
40 40
41 41
42 42
Total 100% 97.5% 15.3 81.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 2.5 96.3 1.3




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Illinois 56.1% 1.0 0.6
Eastern Kentucky 38.0% 1.0 0.4
Penn 37.5% 1.0 0.4
Boise State 37.1% 1.0 0.4
Wisconsin 26.1% 1.0 0.3
Florida State 23.7% 1.0 0.2
Purdue 22.8% 1.0 0.2
San Francisco 20.6% 1.0 0.2
Tulsa 7.9% 1.0 0.1
Eastern Michigan 4.6% 1.0 0.0
Columbia 4.0% 1.0 0.0
Virginia 3.8% 1.0 0.0
Indiana 1.0% 1.0 0.0
California 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Kentucky 0.3% 1.0 0.0
Total 2.8
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 8.0