Illinois
Men - Women
2016 - 2017 - 2018
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
54  Jonathan Davis SO 31:31
139  Jesse Reiser JR 31:58
291  Zack Smith JR 32:25
293  Billy Magnesen JR 32:25
408  Alex Gold SR 32:39
518  Zach Dale SO 32:52
574  Dan Lathrop JR 32:59
612  Luke Brahm SR 33:03
628  Jack Lalonde FR 33:04
717  Garrett Lee SR 33:14
968  Joe Cowlin SR 33:35
1,031  Alex Keeble FR 33:40
National Rank #30 of 315
Midwest Region Rank #1 of 33
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 70.5%
Most Likely Finish 27th at Nationals


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 0.2%
Top 20 at Nationals 13.1%


Regional Champion 14.9%
Top 5 in Regional 97.5%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Jonathan Davis Jesse Reiser Zack Smith Billy Magnesen Alex Gold Zach Dale Dan Lathrop Luke Brahm Jack Lalonde Garrett Lee Joe Cowlin
John McNichols Invitational 09/09 1009 32:38 32:50 33:02 32:55 34:10 33:19
Coast-To-Coast Battle in Beantown 09/22 668 31:46 31:45 32:20 32:24 32:52 32:44 33:12
Louisville Classic (Gold) 09/30 574 31:20 31:58 32:00 32:13 32:47 32:45 32:32 33:51
Nuttycombe Invitational 10/13 785 31:02 32:29 32:48 32:30 34:47 33:42
Illini Open 10/20 32:29 34:01
Big Ten Championship 10/29 620 31:37 31:49 31:58 32:22 32:50 32:51 34:08 32:59 33:06
Midwest Region Championships 11/10 726 31:46 32:02 32:32 32:32 33:10 32:46 32:34





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 70.5% 24.4 608 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.9 0.9 1.3 2.1 2.2 4.7 3.9 4.4 5.7 6.0 5.8 7.0 7.4 6.0 4.8 3.8 2.9
Region Championship 100% 3.0 105 14.9 24.2 26.6 21.1 10.8 2.2 0.3 0.1



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jonathan Davis 93.7% 51.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.3 0.9 1.2 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.0 1.5
Jesse Reiser 76.1% 111.1 0.1
Zack Smith 70.6% 177.4
Billy Magnesen 70.5% 178.9
Alex Gold 70.5% 209.3
Zach Dale 70.8% 225.9
Dan Lathrop 70.6% 231.2


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jonathan Davis 1.3 43.9 18.5 10.1 5.9 4.1 2.7 2.7 1.7 1.6 1.1 1.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.3
Jesse Reiser 7.0 1.5 6.8 9.4 10.0 9.3 6.9 6.3 5.8 4.9 3.0 2.7 3.1 1.9 2.7 1.6 1.6 2.7 1.1 1.1 1.5 1.3 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.9
Zack Smith 25.5 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 1.3 1.5 2.1 2.2 3.0 2.6 3.5 3.2 2.5 2.7 3.2 2.2 3.1 2.5 2.8 2.5 2.3 2.4 1.9
Billy Magnesen 26.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.7 2.4 2.0 2.3 2.0 3.4 2.3 2.6 2.9 2.3 3.6 3.0 2.8 2.9 2.6 3.1 2.4 2.0
Alex Gold 37.8 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.4 2.5 1.9
Zach Dale 48.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.8 0.6 0.7
Dan Lathrop 54.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 14.9% 100.0% 14.9 14.9 1
2 24.2% 100.0% 24.2 24.2 2
3 26.6% 73.6% 0.1 0.1 1.1 3.1 5.6 4.0 2.6 1.1 0.5 0.8 0.9 7.0 19.6 3
4 21.1% 40.6% 0.4 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.7 0.7 0.7 1.0 12.5 8.6 4
5 10.8% 30.1% 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.7 7.6 3.3 5
6 2.2% 4.5% 0.1 0.1 2.1 0.1 6
7 0.3% 0.3 7
8 0.1% 0.1 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
Total 100% 70.5% 14.9 24.2 0.1 0.1 1.1 3.5 6.9 5.8 5.0 3.3 1.6 1.8 2.6 29.5 39.1 31.5




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Minnesota 88.2% 1.0 0.9
Princeton 69.0% 1.0 0.7
Mid. Tenn. State 48.7% 1.0 0.5
Penn State 26.3% 1.0 0.3
Wisconsin 26.1% 1.0 0.3
Purdue 22.8% 2.0 0.5
Tulsa 7.9% 1.0 0.1
Columbia 4.0% 1.0 0.0
Virginia 3.8% 1.0 0.0
Indiana 1.0% 3.0 0.0
California 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Kentucky 0.3% 1.0 0.0
Belmont 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Lipscomb 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Nebraska 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Auburn 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Total 3.2
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 9.0