Louisville
Men - Women
2016 - 2017 - 2018
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
28  Dorcas Wasike SO 19:31
144  Kassidy Manning SO 20:07
235  Bailey Davis SR 20:22
243  Mia Ross SR 20:23
496  Aurilla Wilson JR 20:50
707  Caroline Gosser JR 21:08
914  Abigail Wright JR 21:22
1,641  Lauren Radenhausen SO 22:09
2,193  Michelle Appel SO 22:47
2,245  Hannah Herd SO 22:51
National Rank #28 of 348
Southeast Region Rank #4 of 50
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 40.7%
Most Likely Finish 4th at Regional


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 1.1%
Top 20 at Nationals 15.5%


Regional Champion 0.4%
Top 5 in Regional 71.7%
Top 10 in Regional 99.7%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Dorcas Wasike Kassidy Manning Bailey Davis Mia Ross Aurilla Wilson Caroline Gosser Abigail Wright Lauren Radenhausen Michelle Appel Hannah Herd
John McNichols Invitational 09/09 901 20:27 20:42 20:25 21:00 21:05 22:07 22:07 23:09
Louisville Classic (Gold) 09/30 663 19:49 20:09 21:10 20:14 20:42 21:06 21:21
Louisville Classic (Blue) 09/30 1317 22:08 22:41 22:51
Pre-Nationals (Black) 10/14 21:57 23:19 22:40
Pre-Nationals (Red) 10/14 621 19:22 20:06 20:37 20:29 20:50 22:13
ACC Championship 10/27 474 19:16 19:52 20:13 20:09 20:51 21:03 21:10 22:34 23:15 22:47
Southeast Region Championships 11/10 480 19:19 20:03 19:57 20:02 21:20 21:21 21:25





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 40.7% 21.9 537 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.4 1.0 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.4 2.1 1.7 2.9 2.0 2.2 2.3 3.9 3.8 1.9 2.4 1.8 2.9 1.3 0.8
Region Championship 100% 4.6 161 0.4 7.5 20.4 22.8 20.7 14.6 8.8 3.0 1.4 0.4 0.2 0.2



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Dorcas Wasike 98.8% 34.5 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.3 0.9 1.3 1.9 2.2 1.1 1.7 2.6 1.7 1.9 1.5 2.2 1.8 2.1 1.8 2.3 1.5
Kassidy Manning 41.0% 110.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Bailey Davis 40.7% 157.7
Mia Ross 40.7% 159.3
Aurilla Wilson 40.7% 215.9
Caroline Gosser 40.7% 236.1
Abigail Wright 40.7% 244.0


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Dorcas Wasike 5.7 8.4 9.4 8.5 8.7 9.5 8.2 7.8 6.6 7.3 5.5 4.5 3.6 3.1 2.5 1.9 1.4 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1
Kassidy Manning 21.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.6 1.2 1.8 1.8 2.1 2.8 3.9 3.6 4.3 5.3 6.0 4.7 5.4 4.5 4.0 4.2 4.5 3.7
Bailey Davis 31.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.7 2.0 2.2 3.3 2.5 3.3 2.9 2.9
Mia Ross 33.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.8 0.7 1.2 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.5 2.0 3.3 2.8 3.3
Aurilla Wilson 62.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1
Caroline Gosser 85.3
Abigail Wright 104.5




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 0.4% 100.0% 0.4 0.4 1
2 7.5% 100.0% 7.5 7.5 2
3 20.4% 53.6% 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.0 2.2 1.2 1.3 0.9 0.7 0.8 1.1 9.5 10.9 3
4 22.8% 42.6% 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.5 1.9 1.2 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.0 13.1 9.7 4
5 20.7% 33.7% 0.2 0.6 0.8 1.3 0.9 1.4 0.8 1.1 13.7 7.0 5
6 14.6% 29.9% 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.8 10.2 4.4 6
7 8.8% 8.0% 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 8.1 0.7 7
8 3.0% 5.0% 0.1 0.1 2.9 0.2 8
9 1.4% 1.4 9
10 0.4% 0.4 10
11 0.2% 0.2 11
12 0.2% 0.2 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
36 36
37 37
38 38
39 39
40 40
41 41
42 42
43 43
44 44
45 45
46 46
47 47
48 48
49 49
50 50
Total 100% 40.7% 0.4 7.5 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.6 4.2 4.2 4.5 3.9 4.1 3.5 4.3 59.4 7.9 32.8




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Texas 58.3% 1.0 0.6
Ohio State 37.3% 1.0 0.4
Virginia Tech 27.9% 2.0 0.6
SMU 20.8% 1.0 0.2
Samford 10.8% 1.0 0.1
Virginia 8.9% 1.0 0.1
Missouri 5.0% 1.0 0.1
Duke 4.9% 2.0 0.1
Arizona 2.8% 1.0 0.0
Wake Forest 2.5% 2.0 0.0
Abilene Christian 1.6% 1.0 0.0
West Virginia 0.8% 1.0 0.0
Northwestern 0.7% 1.0 0.0
Portland 0.6% 1.0 0.0
Vanderbilt 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Auburn 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Brown 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Pittsburgh 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Arizona State 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Dayton 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Kentucky 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Total 2.2
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 9.0