Big East
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
6 Villanova 100.0%   2   13 - 5 6 - 2 23 - 7 16 - 4 +17.9      +9.5 11 +8.4 11 58.0 355 +16.1 17 +16.9 2
18 Connecticut 92.0%   6   12 - 4 3 - 2 21 - 9 12 - 7 +13.8      +7.1 28 +6.8 25 66.4 250 +12.8 35 +10.9 6
19 Xavier 98.1%   5   14 - 3 4 - 2 22 - 8 12 - 7 +13.8      +7.2 25 +6.6 29 72.3 85 +16.5 14 +15.1 4
23 Seton Hall 81.5%   7   10 - 5 2 - 4 18 - 10 10 - 9 +12.9      +7.1 27 +5.8 41 73.9 64 +12.2 41 +7.5 7
37 Marquette 85.3%   8   13 - 6 5 - 3 19 - 11 11 - 8 +10.7      +4.5 58 +6.2 32 75.1 48 +13.0 34 +13.0 5
44 Providence 94.4%   6   14 - 2 4 - 1 21 - 7 11 - 6 +10.3      +4.5 63 +5.9 39 65.8 268 +18.6 8 +18.8 1
45 Creighton 62.0%   9   11 - 5 3 - 2 18 - 11 10 - 8 +10.2      +4.5 55 +5.7 44 68.4 182 +11.4 46 +16.9 3
92 St. John's 4.0%   10 - 6 2 - 3 15 - 15 7 - 12 +6.3      +4.1 70 +2.2 106 81.3 4 +4.9 103 +6.1 8
94 DePaul 3.2%   10 - 7 1 - 6 15 - 14 6 - 13 +6.0      +4.0 73 +2.0 112 73.5 70 +6.3 90 +0.5 10
118 Butler 0.8%   7 - 8 2 - 4 11 - 18 6 - 14 +3.5      -0.4 187 +3.9 74 61.2 341 +6.3 89 +5.9 9
155 Georgetown 0.1%   6 - 8 0 - 3 9 - 21 3 - 16 +0.5      +1.8 125 -1.2 209 74.5 58 -2.2 204 -10.7 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Villanova 1.2 85.6 10.2 2.8 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Connecticut 3.4 11.3 26.7 21.6 14.6 11.0 7.6 4.8 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
Xavier 3.1 10.6 36.6 20.1 12.8 8.7 6.3 3.5 1.0 0.2 0.0
Seton Hall 5.0 1.7 9.4 14.2 16.1 17.3 17.3 14.9 6.6 1.9 0.4 0.0
Marquette 4.4 2.7 12.9 18.2 18.9 18.1 15.1 10.0 3.3 0.6 0.1
Providence 4.4 3.3 12.8 17.9 19.1 17.4 14.9 10.0 3.7 0.9 0.2 0.0
Creighton 5.0 1.5 10.3 14.8 15.8 15.9 15.7 16.2 6.9 2.2 0.6 0.1
St. John's 7.9 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.6 4.6 8.1 14.7 31.0 21.6 12.9 2.3
DePaul 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.1 6.1 19.1 31.5 30.4 9.4
Butler 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 2.3 4.1 8.8 23.3 29.0 25.3 5.4
Georgetown 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 3.2 8.9 18.6 68.3




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Villanova 16 - 4 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.3 6.6 13.1 22.1 26.3 20.5 8.5
Connecticut 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.9 6.2 11.6 16.2 19.6 18.1 13.4 7.5 2.5 0.5
Xavier 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.7 4.2 8.9 14.6 19.9 19.8 16.3 9.6 3.8 0.8
Seton Hall 10 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 4.5 9.6 15.9 20.2 20.7 15.0 8.3 3.1 0.4
Marquette 11 - 9 0.0 0.3 1.8 5.9 12.9 19.5 22.6 18.6 11.7 5.0 1.4 0.2
Providence 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.8 6.6 12.8 18.3 21.4 18.9 11.6 5.4 1.4 0.1
Creighton 10 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 5.4 9.8 15.5 18.9 19.3 14.7 8.6 3.9 1.2 0.2
St. John's 7 - 13 0.4 2.3 6.9 13.2 18.0 19.4 16.0 11.9 6.9 3.0 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
DePaul 6 - 14 0.4 2.7 8.7 16.8 22.3 21.6 15.1 8.2 3.1 1.0 0.2 0.0
Butler 6 - 14 1.4 6.4 13.9 19.5 19.7 17.2 11.3 6.1 2.8 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
Georgetown 3 - 17 6.4 16.9 22.0 20.9 15.9 9.5 5.3 2.1 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Villanova 85.6% 72.7 10.9 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
Connecticut 11.3% 5.5 4.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Xavier 10.6% 4.4 5.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Seton Hall 1.7% 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
Marquette 2.7% 0.8 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
Providence 3.3% 1.1 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Creighton 1.5% 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
St. John's 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
DePaul
Butler 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Georgetown


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Villanova 100.0% 40.7% 59.3% 2   21.2 25.0 23.6 15.4 8.0 4.0 1.8 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
Connecticut 92.0% 14.9% 77.1% 6   1.2 3.0 6.6 10.1 13.2 14.2 13.6 12.1 8.2 5.3 3.4 1.1 0.1 8.0 90.6%
Xavier 98.1% 15.5% 82.5% 5   3.1 7.6 12.8 17.8 17.4 14.8 10.7 6.4 3.7 2.2 1.1 0.3 0.0 1.9 97.7%
Seton Hall 81.5% 10.7% 70.8% 7   0.3 0.9 3.2 5.4 8.9 11.9 13.0 12.6 9.8 7.1 5.8 2.5 0.1 18.5 79.3%
Marquette 85.3% 5.9% 79.4% 8   0.0 0.3 1.5 3.3 8.2 12.6 16.7 16.1 11.8 7.5 5.2 2.0 0.1 0.0 14.7 84.4%
Providence 94.4% 5.4% 89.0% 6   0.3 1.4 4.2 8.0 12.8 17.1 16.1 13.5 10.9 6.0 3.2 0.7 0.0 5.6 94.0%
Creighton 62.0% 5.0% 57.0% 9   0.0 0.1 0.8 1.8 3.8 5.7 9.1 11.6 11.3 8.9 6.5 2.3 0.1 38.0 60.0%
St. John's 4.0% 0.9% 3.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.8 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 96.0 3.1%
DePaul 3.2% 0.6% 2.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 96.8 2.5%
Butler 0.8% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 99.2 0.5%
Georgetown 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Villanova 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 91.0% 63.6% 36.9% 19.8% 10.2% 4.9%
Connecticut 92.0% 2.6% 90.9% 61.7% 28.7% 12.7% 5.3% 2.1% 0.8%
Xavier 98.1% 0.9% 97.6% 70.5% 35.4% 14.6% 5.8% 2.2% 0.7%
Seton Hall 81.5% 5.3% 79.2% 49.3% 19.9% 8.4% 3.3% 1.3% 0.4%
Marquette 85.3% 4.5% 82.9% 42.8% 12.9% 4.2% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Providence 94.4% 2.2% 93.1% 49.0% 16.1% 4.9% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%
Creighton 62.0% 5.2% 59.2% 29.8% 8.6% 3.1% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1%
St. John's 4.0% 1.0% 3.4% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DePaul 3.2% 1.1% 2.6% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Butler 0.8% 0.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgetown 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 6.2 0.0 1.3 14.4 47.6 34.8 1.8 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 6.1 0.1 2.0 18.1 49.1 29.5 1.2 0.0
2nd Round 100.0% 4.0 0.0 1.1 7.9 23.9 35.4 24.3 6.6 0.7 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 93.4% 1.9 6.6 30.2 39.5 18.9 4.4 0.4 0.0
Elite Eight 64.4% 0.8 35.6 46.1 16.2 2.1 0.1
Final Four 34.6% 0.4 65.4 31.4 3.1 0.1
Final Game 16.5% 0.2 83.5 16.2 0.3
Champion 7.0% 0.1 93.0 7.0