Butler
Big East
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.5#118
Expected Predictive Rating+6.3#89
Pace61.2#341
Improvement-0.1#184

Offense
Total Offense-0.4#187
First Shot+0.9#148
After Offensive Rebound-1.3#274
Layup/Dunks-0.8#195
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#284
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#80
Freethrows+0.8#114
Improvement+0.4#155

Defense
Total Defense+3.9#74
First Shot+2.9#81
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#88
Layups/Dunks+2.8#77
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#145
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#234
Freethrows+0.9#121
Improvement-0.5#204
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 1.8% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.5% 1.4% 0.3%
Average Seed 11.4 10.9 11.9
.500 or above 4.8% 10.4% 3.0%
.500 or above in Conference 4.4% 9.8% 2.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 11.7% 5.2% 13.9%
First Four0.3% 0.6% 0.2%
First Round0.7% 1.5% 0.4%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Connecticut (Home) - 24.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 91 - 9
Quad 1b1 - 52 - 14
Quad 22 - 45 - 18
Quad 33 - 17 - 19
Quad 44 - 011 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 355   IUPUI W 56-47 97%     1 - 0 -11.0 -13.7 +4.5
  Nov 12, 2021 329   Central Arkansas W 85-53 94%     2 - 0 +18.4 +7.6 +12.6
  Nov 13, 2021 189   Troy W 70-59 76%     3 - 0 +7.2 +1.4 +6.4
  Nov 17, 2021 20   Michigan St. L 52-73 24%     3 - 1 -10.2 -14.1 +3.6
  Nov 22, 2021 9   Houston L 52-70 10%     3 - 2 -0.5 -8.4 +6.3
  Nov 23, 2021 60   Texas A&M L 50-57 31%     3 - 3 +1.5 -10.3 +10.8
  Dec 07, 2021 30   @ Oklahoma W 66-62 OT 15%     4 - 3 +18.5 +3.7 +15.0
  Dec 11, 2021 352   Eastern Illinois W 66-54 97%     5 - 3 -6.0 -4.0 -0.7
  Dec 18, 2021 4   Purdue L 48-77 8%     5 - 4 -9.8 -9.4 -6.3
  Dec 29, 2021 94   DePaul W 63-59 50%     6 - 4 1 - 0 +7.5 -7.5 +15.1
  Jan 04, 2022 23   Seton Hall L 56-71 25%     6 - 5 1 - 1 -4.6 -9.6 +4.3
  Jan 07, 2022 19   Xavier L 72-87 23%     6 - 6 1 - 2 -3.8 +11.9 -17.2
  Jan 13, 2022 155   @ Georgetown W 72-58 52%     7 - 6 2 - 2 +17.0 +1.1 +16.3
  Jan 16, 2022 6   @ Villanova L 42-82 7%     7 - 7 2 - 3 -19.6 -12.8 -14.6
  Jan 18, 2022 18   @ Connecticut L 59-76 12%     7 - 8 2 - 4 -0.7 -4.4 +3.3
  Jan 20, 2022 18   Connecticut L 59-67 25%    
  Jan 23, 2022 44   @ Providence L 57-66 18%    
  Jan 26, 2022 45   Creighton L 61-65 37%    
  Jan 29, 2022 155   Georgetown W 70-65 71%    
  Feb 02, 2022 19   @ Xavier L 59-72 11%    
  Feb 05, 2022 92   St. John's L 69-70 50%    
  Feb 08, 2022 45   @ Creighton L 59-68 19%    
  Feb 12, 2022 37   Marquette L 63-68 35%    
  Feb 15, 2022 94   @ DePaul L 64-69 31%    
  Feb 18, 2022 92   @ St. John's L 67-72 29%    
  Feb 20, 2022 44   Providence L 60-64 36%    
  Feb 23, 2022 23   @ Seton Hall L 61-73 12%    
  Feb 26, 2022 37   @ Marquette L 61-71 18%    
  Mar 05, 2022 6   Villanova L 53-65 15%    
Projected Record 11 - 18 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 3rd
4th 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 1.2 0.3 2.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.3 0.9 0.0 4.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.8 4.4 2.3 0.2 0.0 8.8 7th
8th 0.1 1.5 5.7 9.9 5.3 0.7 0.0 23.3 8th
9th 0.2 2.7 9.2 11.1 5.1 0.7 0.0 29.0 9th
10th 0.4 3.9 9.5 8.4 2.7 0.4 25.3 10th
11th 1.0 2.3 1.6 0.4 0.0 5.4 11th
Total 1.4 6.4 13.9 19.5 19.7 17.2 11.3 6.1 2.8 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 75.0% 0.0    0.0
13-7 5.9% 0.0    0.0
12-8 1.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0% 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 100.0% 100.0% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-8 0.4% 45.5% 45.5% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 45.5%
11-9 1.2% 22.2% 3.6% 18.6% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.9 19.3%
10-10 2.8% 3.4% 1.9% 1.6% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.7 1.6%
9-11 6.1% 0.7% 0.7% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.1
8-12 11.3% 0.4% 0.4% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.2
7-13 17.2% 0.4% 0.4% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 17.2
6-14 19.7% 0.2% 0.2% 15.8 0.0 0.0 19.7
5-15 19.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 19.5
4-16 13.9% 13.9
3-17 6.4% 6.4
2-18 1.4% 1.4
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.8% 0.3% 0.5% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 99.2 0.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.4%