Connecticut
Big East
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.8#18
Expected Predictive Rating+12.8#35
Pace66.4#250
Improvement-2.3#276

Offense
Total Offense+7.1#28
First Shot+4.4#52
After Offensive Rebound+2.6#26
Layup/Dunks+3.2#66
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#274
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#161
Freethrows+2.5#25
Improvement-0.8#234

Defense
Total Defense+6.8#25
First Shot+6.6#17
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#157
Layups/Dunks+0.5#168
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#64
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.2#16
Freethrows-0.6#237
Improvement-1.4#257
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.2% 1.6% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 4.2% 5.2% 1.0%
Top 4 Seed 20.9% 24.6% 9.5%
Top 6 Seed 48.3% 53.6% 32.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 92.0% 94.2% 85.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 90.6% 93.0% 83.7%
Average Seed 6.4 6.1 7.3
.500 or above 99.8% 99.9% 99.3%
.500 or above in Conference 89.3% 92.9% 78.3%
Conference Champion 11.3% 13.6% 4.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four2.6% 2.1% 4.1%
First Round90.9% 93.3% 83.7%
Second Round61.7% 64.6% 52.8%
Sweet Sixteen28.7% 31.0% 21.8%
Elite Eight12.7% 14.0% 8.9%
Final Four5.3% 5.9% 3.4%
Championship Game2.1% 2.4% 1.3%
National Champion0.8% 0.9% 0.4%

Next Game: Butler (Away) - 75.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 53 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 36 - 8
Quad 26 - 212 - 10
Quad 34 - 016 - 10
Quad 47 - 022 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 343   Central Connecticut St. W 99-48 99%     1 - 0 +35.6 +14.7 +18.9
  Nov 13, 2021 302   Coppin St. W 89-54 98%     2 - 0 +24.3 +5.3 +16.0
  Nov 17, 2021 235   LIU Brooklyn W 93-40 96%     3 - 0 +46.5 +9.9 +32.2
  Nov 20, 2021 310   Binghamton W 87-63 98%     4 - 0 +12.9 +9.8 +3.6
  Nov 24, 2021 8   Auburn W 115-109 2OT 35%     5 - 0 +23.8 +19.4 +2.7
  Nov 25, 2021 20   Michigan St. L 60-64 52%     5 - 1 +9.3 -5.2 +14.5
  Nov 26, 2021 75   Virginia Commonwealth W 70-63 OT 73%     6 - 1 +14.4 +2.6 +11.3
  Nov 30, 2021 342   Maryland Eastern Shore W 72-63 99%     7 - 1 -5.9 +3.6 -8.3
  Dec 04, 2021 322   Grambling St. W 88-59 98%     8 - 1 +16.2 +12.4 +4.8
  Dec 08, 2021 43   @ West Virginia L 53-56 54%     8 - 2 +9.9 -5.5 +14.9
  Dec 11, 2021 80   St. Bonaventure W 74-64 74%     9 - 2 +17.2 +5.6 +11.8
  Dec 18, 2021 44   Providence L 53-57 72%     9 - 3 0 - 1 +3.8 -10.1 +13.6
  Dec 21, 2021 37   @ Marquette W 78-70 52%     10 - 3 1 - 1 +21.2 +12.9 +8.4
  Jan 08, 2022 23   @ Seton Hall L 87-90 OT 44%     10 - 4 1 - 2 +12.4 +16.5 -3.9
  Jan 12, 2022 92   St. John's W 86-78 OT 83%     11 - 4 2 - 2 +11.7 +4.4 +6.5
  Jan 18, 2022 118   Butler W 76-59 88%     12 - 4 3 - 2 +18.0 +7.7 +10.7
  Jan 20, 2022 118   @ Butler W 67-59 75%    
  Jan 25, 2022 155   Georgetown W 81-65 94%    
  Jan 29, 2022 94   @ DePaul W 75-70 68%    
  Feb 01, 2022 45   Creighton W 71-65 74%    
  Feb 05, 2022 6   @ Villanova L 60-67 26%    
  Feb 08, 2022 37   Marquette W 74-68 71%    
  Feb 11, 2022 19   @ Xavier L 70-72 40%    
  Feb 13, 2022 92   @ St. John's W 78-73 66%    
  Feb 16, 2022 23   Seton Hall W 74-71 64%    
  Feb 19, 2022 19   Xavier W 72-69 61%    
  Feb 22, 2022 6   Villanova L 63-65 46%    
  Feb 27, 2022 155   @ Georgetown W 79-68 82%    
  Mar 02, 2022 45   @ Creighton W 69-68 52%    
  Mar 05, 2022 94   DePaul W 77-67 84%    
Projected Record 21 - 9 12 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 3.1 4.7 2.3 0.5 11.3 1st
2nd 0.3 3.7 10.3 9.3 2.9 0.3 26.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 3.6 10.3 6.5 1.0 0.0 21.6 3rd
4th 0.1 2.0 7.0 4.9 0.5 0.0 14.6 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 5.0 4.4 0.6 11.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.7 3.6 0.7 0.0 7.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.2 0.7 0.0 4.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.9 6.2 11.6 16.2 19.6 18.1 13.4 7.5 2.5 0.5 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.5    0.5
16-4 89.1% 2.3    1.8 0.5
15-5 61.8% 4.7    2.4 2.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 23.0% 3.1    0.8 1.6 0.6 0.1
13-7 4.6% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 11.3% 11.3 5.5 4.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.5% 100.0% 34.9% 65.1% 1.7 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 2.5% 100.0% 35.0% 65.0% 2.3 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 7.5% 100.0% 28.6% 71.4% 3.3 0.3 1.4 2.6 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-6 13.4% 100.0% 22.4% 77.6% 4.4 0.1 0.4 2.4 4.3 3.9 1.7 0.5 0.1 100.0%
13-7 18.1% 99.9% 17.5% 82.4% 5.6 0.0 0.7 2.5 5.2 5.3 3.2 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-8 19.6% 99.1% 13.3% 85.8% 6.8 0.1 0.7 2.6 4.8 5.5 4.0 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.2 98.9%
11-9 16.2% 97.0% 9.7% 87.3% 7.9 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 3.3 4.5 3.2 1.7 0.5 0.0 0.5 96.7%
10-10 11.6% 88.0% 8.2% 79.8% 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.3 2.7 2.3 1.2 0.2 1.4 86.9%
9-11 6.2% 63.4% 4.4% 59.0% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.4 0.4 0.0 2.3 61.7%
8-12 2.9% 26.7% 5.1% 21.7% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 2.1 22.8%
7-13 1.2% 5.2% 0.5% 4.7% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 4.7%
6-14 0.3% 5.0% 5.0% 12.0 0.0 0.3
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 92.0% 14.9% 77.1% 6.4 1.2 3.0 6.6 10.1 13.2 14.2 13.6 12.1 8.2 5.3 3.4 1.1 0.1 8.0 90.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.3 71.4 28.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.9 39.3 36.1 19.7 4.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.9 24.3 62.2 13.5