Marquette
Big East
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.7#37
Expected Predictive Rating+13.0#34
Pace75.1#48
Improvement+6.3#7

Offense
Total Offense+4.5#58
First Shot+3.6#75
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#115
Layup/Dunks+0.8#143
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#235
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#50
Freethrows+0.1#174
Improvement+3.3#24

Defense
Total Defense+6.2#32
First Shot+6.4#20
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#190
Layups/Dunks-0.6#214
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#49
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#55
Freethrows+2.0#61
Improvement+3.1#25
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.3% 0.6% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 5.2% 8.3% 2.1%
Top 6 Seed 26.0% 36.1% 15.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 85.3% 92.7% 78.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 84.4% 92.1% 76.8%
Average Seed 7.5 7.1 8.1
.500 or above 98.9% 99.8% 98.0%
.500 or above in Conference 79.0% 89.8% 68.2%
Conference Champion 2.7% 4.7% 0.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four4.5% 2.5% 6.6%
First Round82.9% 91.1% 74.6%
Second Round42.8% 49.1% 36.4%
Sweet Sixteen12.9% 15.6% 10.2%
Elite Eight4.2% 5.0% 3.3%
Final Four1.2% 1.4% 1.1%
Championship Game0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Xavier (Home) - 50.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 63 - 6
Quad 1b4 - 27 - 9
Quad 24 - 311 - 11
Quad 34 - 115 - 12
Quad 45 - 020 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 273   SIU Edwardsville W 88-77 96%     1 - 0 +2.1 -1.4 +1.8
  Nov 12, 2021 230   New Hampshire W 75-70 93%     2 - 0 -1.0 -2.6 +1.5
  Nov 15, 2021 11   Illinois W 67-66 37%     3 - 0 +15.2 -6.6 +21.7
  Nov 18, 2021 109   Mississippi W 78-72 73%     4 - 0 +10.3 +11.2 -0.7
  Nov 19, 2021 43   West Virginia W 82-71 51%     5 - 0 +21.3 +15.8 +5.6
  Nov 21, 2021 80   St. Bonaventure L 54-70 63%     5 - 1 -8.8 -19.0 +11.0
  Nov 27, 2021 295   Northern Illinois W 80-66 96%     6 - 1 +3.6 -1.2 +3.6
  Nov 30, 2021 268   Jackson St. W 83-54 95%     7 - 1 +20.8 +2.2 +15.5
  Dec 04, 2021 25   @ Wisconsin L 76-89 33%     7 - 2 +2.3 +4.7 -1.5
  Dec 08, 2021 55   @ Kansas St. W 64-63 47%     8 - 2 +12.4 +0.1 +12.3
  Dec 11, 2021 12   UCLA L 56-67 37%     8 - 3 +3.2 -7.7 +10.4
  Dec 18, 2021 19   @ Xavier L 71-80 30%     8 - 4 0 - 1 +7.3 +0.7 +7.2
  Dec 21, 2021 18   Connecticut L 70-78 48%     8 - 5 0 - 2 +3.3 +2.9 +0.4
  Jan 01, 2022 45   Creighton L 69-75 2OT 62%     8 - 6 0 - 3 +1.7 -8.1 +10.6
  Jan 04, 2022 44   Providence W 88-56 61%     9 - 6 1 - 3 +39.8 +28.0 +14.8
  Jan 07, 2022 155   @ Georgetown W 92-64 77%     10 - 6 2 - 3 +31.0 +13.3 +15.9
  Jan 11, 2022 94   DePaul W 87-76 76%     11 - 6 3 - 3 +14.5 +14.6 -0.2
  Jan 15, 2022 23   Seton Hall W 73-72 51%     12 - 6 4 - 3 +11.4 +4.0 +7.4
  Jan 19, 2022 6   @ Villanova W 57-54 18%     13 - 6 5 - 3 +23.4 +2.7 +21.2
  Jan 23, 2022 19   Xavier L 74-75 50%    
  Jan 26, 2022 23   @ Seton Hall L 73-78 31%    
  Jan 29, 2022 44   @ Providence L 69-71 40%    
  Feb 02, 2022 6   Villanova L 64-69 34%    
  Feb 08, 2022 18   @ Connecticut L 68-74 29%    
  Feb 12, 2022 118   @ Butler W 68-63 65%    
  Feb 16, 2022 155   Georgetown W 83-70 88%    
  Feb 20, 2022 45   @ Creighton L 70-72 41%    
  Feb 26, 2022 118   Butler W 71-61 82%    
  Mar 02, 2022 94   @ DePaul W 77-75 56%    
  Mar 05, 2022 92   St. John's W 83-76 75%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 11 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 1.1 0.8 0.2 2.7 1st
2nd 0.2 2.9 5.8 3.4 0.6 0.0 12.9 2nd
3rd 0.2 3.8 8.9 4.8 0.5 0.0 18.2 3rd
4th 0.1 2.7 9.8 5.8 0.5 0.0 18.9 4th
5th 0.0 1.8 8.0 7.3 0.9 18.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 5.7 7.0 1.4 0.0 15.1 6th
7th 0.4 3.2 4.7 1.6 0.1 10.0 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 1.7 0.5 0.0 3.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.8 5.9 12.9 19.5 22.6 18.6 11.7 5.0 1.4 0.2 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 91.2% 0.2    0.1 0.1
15-5 55.9% 0.8    0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0
14-6 22.6% 1.1    0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0
13-7 4.8% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.7% 2.7 0.8 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.2% 100.0% 21.6% 78.4% 2.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 1.4% 100.0% 17.5% 82.5% 3.5 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-6 5.0% 100.0% 11.4% 88.6% 4.7 0.0 0.6 1.5 1.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-7 11.7% 100.0% 10.1% 89.9% 5.7 0.0 0.3 1.0 3.4 4.3 2.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-8 18.6% 99.7% 8.2% 91.5% 6.8 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.9 6.7 3.5 0.9 0.1 0.1 99.6%
11-9 22.6% 97.4% 5.6% 91.8% 7.8 0.0 0.6 2.1 5.8 7.7 4.4 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 97.2%
10-10 19.5% 89.5% 3.7% 85.8% 9.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 4.2 5.3 4.1 1.7 0.2 2.1 89.1%
9-11 12.9% 59.8% 2.4% 57.4% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.0 2.9 1.2 0.0 5.2 58.8%
8-12 5.9% 20.4% 1.2% 19.3% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.0 4.7 19.5%
7-13 1.8% 3.2% 1.2% 2.0% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8 2.0%
6-14 0.3% 0.3
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 85.3% 5.9% 79.4% 7.5 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.3 8.2 12.6 16.7 16.1 11.8 7.5 5.2 2.0 0.1 0.0 14.7 84.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.7 36.4 59.1 4.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 3.0 7.0 18.6 46.5 27.9