Creighton
Big East
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.2#45
Expected Predictive Rating+11.4#46
Pace68.4#182
Improvement+4.1#30

Offense
Total Offense+4.5#55
First Shot+4.1#61
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#139
Layup/Dunks+8.3#4
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#331
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#182
Freethrows-1.0#260
Improvement+1.7#76

Defense
Total Defense+5.7#44
First Shot+3.2#73
After Offensive Rebounds+2.5#24
Layups/Dunks-1.5#237
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#89
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#154
Freethrows+2.7#24
Improvement+2.4#46
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 2.7% 3.3% 0.7%
Top 6 Seed 12.2% 14.6% 4.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 62.0% 67.0% 46.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 60.0% 65.1% 44.8%
Average Seed 8.2 8.1 8.8
.500 or above 97.6% 99.0% 93.4%
.500 or above in Conference 66.7% 73.6% 45.8%
Conference Champion 1.5% 2.0% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.7%
First Four5.2% 5.0% 6.0%
First Round59.2% 64.4% 43.5%
Second Round29.8% 33.2% 19.5%
Sweet Sixteen8.6% 9.8% 5.0%
Elite Eight3.1% 3.6% 1.7%
Final Four1.1% 1.2% 0.5%
Championship Game0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: DePaul (Home) - 75.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 53 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 8
Quad 23 - 28 - 10
Quad 36 - 214 - 12
Quad 45 - 019 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 356   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 90-77 99%     1 - 0 -8.6 -2.1 -7.6
  Nov 11, 2021 214   Kennesaw St. W 51-44 91%     2 - 0 +2.1 -21.3 +23.7
  Nov 16, 2021 140   @ Nebraska W 77-69 72%     3 - 0 +12.0 +3.3 +8.5
  Nov 19, 2021 181   Brown W 78-57 85%     4 - 0 +20.3 +3.3 +16.1
  Nov 21, 2021 47   Colorado St. L 81-95 51%     4 - 1 -4.0 +8.6 -12.3
  Nov 22, 2021 133   Southern Illinois W 66-64 78%     5 - 1 +4.1 +5.1 -0.6
  Nov 27, 2021 273   SIU Edwardsville W 70-65 95%     6 - 1 -3.9 -4.7 +0.9
  Nov 30, 2021 188   North Dakota St. W 80-55 90%     7 - 1 +21.4 +17.1 +8.1
  Dec 04, 2021 36   Iowa St. L 58-64 56%     7 - 2 +2.8 -3.6 +6.0
  Dec 11, 2021 29   BYU W 83-71 42%     8 - 2 +24.2 +16.6 +7.5
  Dec 14, 2021 119   Arizona St. L 57-58 81%     8 - 3 -0.1 -10.2 +10.0
  Dec 17, 2021 6   Villanova W 79-59 31%     9 - 3 1 - 0 +35.4 +20.6 +16.6
  Jan 01, 2022 37   @ Marquette W 75-69 2OT 38%     10 - 3 2 - 0 +19.2 +0.1 +18.3
  Jan 05, 2022 6   @ Villanova L 41-75 17%     10 - 4 2 - 1 -13.6 -14.6 -5.2
  Jan 15, 2022 19   @ Xavier L 73-80 28%     10 - 5 2 - 2 +9.3 +2.9 +6.8
  Jan 19, 2022 92   St. John's W 87-64 73%     11 - 5 3 - 2 +26.7 +11.1 +14.6
  Jan 22, 2022 94   DePaul W 76-69 75%    
  Jan 26, 2022 118   @ Butler W 65-61 63%    
  Jan 29, 2022 19   Xavier L 71-72 48%    
  Feb 01, 2022 18   @ Connecticut L 65-71 26%    
  Feb 04, 2022 23   @ Seton Hall L 70-75 29%    
  Feb 08, 2022 118   Butler W 68-59 81%    
  Feb 12, 2022 155   @ Georgetown W 77-70 73%    
  Feb 14, 2022 155   Georgetown W 80-68 88%    
  Feb 20, 2022 37   Marquette W 72-70 59%    
  Feb 23, 2022 92   @ St. John's W 77-76 53%    
  Feb 26, 2022 44   @ Providence L 66-69 38%    
  Mar 02, 2022 18   Connecticut L 68-69 48%    
  Mar 05, 2022 23   Seton Hall L 72-73 51%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.1 1.5 1st
2nd 0.2 2.1 4.5 2.8 0.6 0.0 10.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 3.3 7.4 3.5 0.5 0.0 14.8 3rd
4th 0.1 2.3 8.3 4.6 0.3 0.0 15.8 4th
5th 0.0 1.8 7.5 6.1 0.5 15.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 6.2 6.9 1.4 0.0 15.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.6 5.9 6.6 1.9 0.0 16.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 2.8 2.6 0.7 0.0 6.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 5.4 9.8 15.5 18.9 19.3 14.7 8.6 3.9 1.2 0.2 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 74.1% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-5 42.8% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.0
14-6 14.9% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.1
13-7 3.9% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.5% 1.5 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.2% 100.0% 11.1% 88.9% 3.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 1.2% 100.0% 13.9% 86.1% 4.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 3.9% 99.5% 12.1% 87.4% 5.1 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.3 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.5%
13-7 8.6% 99.0% 9.7% 89.3% 6.4 0.1 0.4 1.4 2.5 2.6 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.1 98.9%
12-8 14.7% 95.1% 7.2% 87.9% 7.7 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 3.8 4.4 2.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.7 94.8%
11-9 19.3% 84.7% 4.8% 79.9% 8.8 0.1 0.5 1.8 4.2 4.8 3.5 1.4 0.1 3.0 83.9%
10-10 18.9% 62.5% 4.6% 57.9% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.9 3.4 2.9 0.5 0.0 7.1 60.7%
9-11 15.5% 33.9% 3.0% 30.9% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.8 1.2 0.1 10.2 31.9%
8-12 9.8% 7.4% 1.0% 6.3% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.0 9.0 6.4%
7-13 5.4% 2.3% 1.7% 0.6% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 5.3 0.6%
6-14 1.9% 0.4% 0.4% 12.0 0.0 1.9
5-15 0.6% 0.6
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 62.0% 5.0% 57.0% 8.2 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.8 3.8 5.7 9.1 11.6 11.3 8.9 6.5 2.3 0.1 38.0 60.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 2.8 3.6 14.3 82.1