Villanova
Big East
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.9#6
Expected Predictive Rating+16.1#17
Pace58.0#355
Improvement+2.4#74

Offense
Total Offense+9.5#11
First Shot+7.4#16
After Offensive Rebound+2.1#43
Layup/Dunks-0.1#167
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#225
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.1#19
Freethrows+2.4#28
Improvement-1.6#274

Defense
Total Defense+8.4#11
First Shot+6.2#22
After Offensive Rebounds+2.3#30
Layups/Dunks+5.4#18
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#270
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#186
Freethrows+2.1#55
Improvement+3.9#13
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 4.4% 4.6% 1.8%
#1 Seed 21.2% 22.5% 7.8%
Top 2 Seed 46.2% 48.5% 23.6%
Top 4 Seed 85.2% 86.7% 70.7%
Top 6 Seed 97.2% 97.7% 92.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 99.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.9% 100.0% 99.7%
Average Seed 2.9 2.8 3.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.7%
Conference Champion 85.6% 87.2% 69.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 99.7%
Second Round91.0% 91.7% 84.1%
Sweet Sixteen63.6% 64.6% 53.3%
Elite Eight36.9% 37.7% 28.7%
Final Four19.8% 20.2% 15.3%
Championship Game10.2% 10.5% 7.4%
National Champion4.9% 5.1% 3.0%

Next Game: Georgetown (Away) - 91.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 55 - 5
Quad 1b4 - 29 - 6
Quad 26 - 115 - 8
Quad 36 - 021 - 8
Quad 44 - 024 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 282   Mount St. Mary's W 91-51 99%     1 - 0 +30.5 +28.1 +7.7
  Nov 12, 2021 12   @ UCLA L 77-86 OT 45%     1 - 1 +10.2 +9.9 +0.6
  Nov 16, 2021 248   Howard W 100-81 98%     2 - 1 +11.9 +27.6 -14.8
  Nov 20, 2021 15   Tennessee W 71-53 63%     3 - 1 +32.6 +9.8 +23.2
  Nov 21, 2021 4   Purdue L 74-80 45%     3 - 2 +13.2 +18.6 -6.3
  Nov 28, 2021 226   @ La Salle W 72-46 95%     4 - 2 +25.4 +3.9 +23.0
  Dec 01, 2021 211   @ Penn W 71-56 94%     5 - 2 +15.2 +6.3 +11.0
  Dec 04, 2021 157   Saint Joseph's W 81-52 96%     6 - 2 +26.9 +12.8 +16.0
  Dec 07, 2021 61   Syracuse W 67-53 81%     7 - 2 +22.4 +1.1 +22.9
  Dec 12, 2021 5   @ Baylor L 36-57 37%     7 - 3 +0.4 -21.7 +18.6
  Dec 17, 2021 45   @ Creighton L 59-79 69%     7 - 4 0 - 1 -7.3 -1.5 -7.6
  Dec 21, 2021 19   Xavier W 71-58 74%     8 - 4 1 - 1 +24.2 +7.7 +17.3
  Jan 01, 2022 23   @ Seton Hall W 73-67 59%     9 - 4 2 - 1 +21.4 +10.4 +11.3
  Jan 05, 2022 45   Creighton W 75-41 83%     10 - 4 3 - 1 +41.7 +20.3 +27.6
  Jan 08, 2022 94   @ DePaul W 79-64 81%     11 - 4 4 - 1 +23.5 +21.3 +4.4
  Jan 12, 2022 19   @ Xavier W 64-60 56%     12 - 4 5 - 1 +20.3 +7.6 +13.2
  Jan 16, 2022 118   Butler W 82-42 93%     13 - 4 6 - 1 +41.0 +28.0 +20.9
  Jan 19, 2022 37   Marquette L 54-57 82%     13 - 5 6 - 2 +5.2 -5.5 +10.3
  Jan 22, 2022 155   @ Georgetown W 76-61 91%    
  Jan 25, 2022 94   DePaul W 74-60 92%    
  Jan 29, 2022 92   St. John's W 77-63 91%    
  Feb 02, 2022 37   @ Marquette W 69-64 66%    
  Feb 05, 2022 18   Connecticut W 67-60 74%    
  Feb 08, 2022 92   @ St. John's W 75-66 79%    
  Feb 12, 2022 23   Seton Hall W 71-64 76%    
  Feb 15, 2022 44   @ Providence W 65-60 66%    
  Feb 19, 2022 155   Georgetown W 78-58 97%    
  Feb 22, 2022 18   @ Connecticut W 65-63 54%    
  Mar 01, 2022 44   Providence W 68-58 84%    
  Mar 05, 2022 118   @ Butler W 65-53 85%    
Projected Record 23 - 7 16 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.7 8.7 20.2 26.0 20.5 8.5 85.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.4 4.1 1.9 0.3 10.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.0 1.3 0.3 0.0 2.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.3 6.6 13.1 22.1 26.3 20.5 8.5 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 8.5    8.5
17-3 100.0% 20.5    20.2 0.2
16-4 99.0% 26.0    24.4 1.6
15-5 91.5% 20.2    15.4 4.6 0.2 0.0
14-6 66.6% 8.7    3.9 3.9 0.9 0.1
13-7 25.9% 1.7    0.3 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0
12-8 2.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 85.6% 85.6 72.7 10.9 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 8.5% 100.0% 53.9% 46.1% 1.3 6.1 2.1 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-3 20.5% 100.0% 47.4% 52.6% 1.7 9.3 8.2 2.6 0.3 0.0 100.0%
16-4 26.3% 100.0% 44.2% 55.8% 2.4 4.7 9.9 8.6 2.9 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-5 22.1% 100.0% 37.6% 62.4% 3.2 1.0 4.3 8.5 6.2 1.8 0.3 0.0 100.0%
14-6 13.1% 100.0% 31.9% 68.1% 4.2 0.1 0.6 3.1 4.6 3.3 1.2 0.3 0.0 100.0%
13-7 6.6% 100.0% 26.2% 73.8% 5.1 0.0 0.6 1.4 2.2 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 100.0%
12-8 2.3% 99.6% 19.3% 80.4% 6.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.6%
11-9 0.6% 98.7% 21.0% 77.7% 7.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.3%
10-10 0.1% 94.6% 7.1% 87.5% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 94.2%
9-11 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 40.7% 59.3% 2.9 21.2 25.0 23.6 15.4 8.0 4.0 1.8 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.6% 100.0% 1.1 85.3 14.5 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.6% 100.0% 1.4 61.3 33.8 4.5 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.5% 100.0% 1.5 57.1 37.9 5.0