Seton Hall
Big East
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.9#23
Expected Predictive Rating+12.2#41
Pace73.9#64
Improvement-2.5#286

Offense
Total Offense+7.1#27
First Shot+4.8#43
After Offensive Rebound+2.4#35
Layup/Dunks+1.4#123
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#152
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#193
Freethrows+3.4#8
Improvement+1.4#88

Defense
Total Defense+5.8#41
First Shot+3.9#62
After Offensive Rebounds+1.9#44
Layups/Dunks+3.7#47
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#349
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.7#23
Freethrows-0.3#219
Improvement-3.9#349
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.3% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.2% 1.8% 0.3%
Top 4 Seed 9.7% 13.0% 4.0%
Top 6 Seed 30.5% 37.8% 17.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 81.5% 87.1% 71.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 79.3% 85.4% 68.8%
Average Seed 7.3 7.0 8.0
.500 or above 98.7% 99.6% 97.3%
.500 or above in Conference 67.7% 77.4% 50.5%
Conference Champion 1.7% 2.4% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 0.4%
First Four5.3% 4.1% 7.3%
First Round79.2% 85.4% 68.2%
Second Round49.3% 54.5% 40.1%
Sweet Sixteen19.9% 22.9% 14.6%
Elite Eight8.4% 9.7% 6.1%
Final Four3.3% 3.9% 2.3%
Championship Game1.3% 1.6% 0.8%
National Champion0.4% 0.5% 0.2%

Next Game: St. John's (Away) - 63.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 25 - 8
Quad 25 - 210 - 10
Quad 36 - 116 - 11
Quad 43 - 019 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 341   Fairleigh Dickinson W 93-49 99%     1 - 0 +29.3 +3.7 +21.5
  Nov 14, 2021 134   Yale W 80-44 89%     2 - 0 +35.5 +1.0 +31.9
  Nov 16, 2021 24   @ Michigan W 67-65 41%     3 - 0 +17.3 +1.8 +15.6
  Nov 22, 2021 22   Ohio St. L 76-79 49%     3 - 1 +10.1 +10.0 -0.1
  Nov 24, 2021 107   California W 62-59 79%     4 - 1 +7.4 -2.4 +9.9
  Nov 28, 2021 348   Bethune-Cookman W 84-70 99%     5 - 1 -2.5 +4.8 -7.5
  Dec 01, 2021 127   Wagner W 85-63 88%     6 - 1 +22.0 +5.5 +14.8
  Dec 09, 2021 17   Texas W 64-60 55%     7 - 1 +15.7 +5.0 +11.2
  Dec 12, 2021 64   Rutgers W 77-63 76%     8 - 1 +19.7 +8.9 +10.5
  Dec 29, 2021 44   @ Providence L 65-70 50%     8 - 2 0 - 1 +7.8 -0.8 +8.6
  Jan 01, 2022 6   Villanova L 67-73 41%     8 - 3 0 - 2 +9.4 +4.3 +4.9
  Jan 04, 2022 118   @ Butler W 71-56 75%     9 - 3 1 - 2 +21.0 +6.7 +15.0
  Jan 08, 2022 18   Connecticut W 90-87 OT 56%     10 - 3 2 - 2 +14.3 +17.8 -3.7
  Jan 13, 2022 94   @ DePaul L 92-96 67%     10 - 4 2 - 3 +4.5 +9.2 -4.1
  Jan 15, 2022 37   @ Marquette L 72-73 49%     10 - 5 2 - 4 +12.2 +5.9 +6.3
  Jan 22, 2022 92   @ St. John's W 83-79 64%    
  Jan 24, 2022 92   St. John's W 85-76 82%    
  Jan 26, 2022 37   Marquette W 78-73 69%    
  Feb 01, 2022 155   @ Georgetown W 83-73 81%    
  Feb 04, 2022 45   Creighton W 75-70 71%    
  Feb 09, 2022 19   Xavier W 76-74 58%    
  Feb 12, 2022 6   @ Villanova L 64-71 24%    
  Feb 16, 2022 18   @ Connecticut L 71-74 36%    
  Feb 19, 2022 94   DePaul W 81-72 82%    
  Feb 23, 2022 118   Butler W 73-61 88%    
  Feb 26, 2022 19   @ Xavier L 74-77 37%    
  Mar 02, 2022 155   Georgetown W 85-70 92%    
  Mar 05, 2022 45   @ Creighton W 73-72 49%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 10 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.3 1.7 1st
2nd 0.3 2.7 4.4 2.0 0.1 9.4 2nd
3rd 0.2 3.4 7.3 3.1 0.2 14.2 3rd
4th 0.2 2.5 8.7 4.4 0.3 16.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.9 8.1 6.7 0.6 0.0 17.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 1.4 6.8 7.5 1.6 0.0 17.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 5.3 6.3 1.9 0.1 14.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 2.5 2.7 0.6 0.0 6.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 4.5 9.6 15.9 20.2 20.7 15.0 8.3 3.1 0.4 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 74.2% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 30.2% 0.9    0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0
13-7 5.3% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.7% 1.7 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.4% 100.0% 45.1% 54.9% 1.9 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 3.1% 100.0% 24.2% 75.8% 3.3 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.0 0.3 0.1 100.0%
13-7 8.3% 100.0% 19.9% 80.1% 4.6 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.3 2.5 1.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-8 15.0% 99.6% 16.1% 83.6% 5.8 0.0 0.5 1.6 3.6 4.7 3.2 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.6%
11-9 20.7% 97.9% 11.4% 86.6% 7.1 0.1 0.4 2.1 4.1 5.6 4.9 2.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.4 97.7%
10-10 20.2% 92.6% 8.9% 83.7% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.4 3.2 5.0 4.6 2.8 1.1 0.1 0.0 1.5 91.9%
9-11 15.9% 73.5% 6.0% 67.5% 9.7 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 2.3 2.9 3.0 0.9 0.0 4.2 71.8%
8-12 9.6% 36.8% 3.8% 33.0% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.3 1.2 0.1 6.1 34.3%
7-13 4.5% 12.0% 3.4% 8.7% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 4.0 9.0%
6-14 1.7% 3.1% 1.7% 1.4% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7 1.4%
5-15 0.5% 0.5
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 81.5% 10.7% 70.8% 7.3 0.3 0.9 3.2 5.4 8.9 11.9 13.0 12.6 9.8 7.1 5.8 2.5 0.1 18.5 79.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.3 71.9 25.0 3.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.8 51.7 13.8 34.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 2.6 5.3 49.3 26.7 18.7